Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD tumbles to the 1.1100 area; will the decline continue?

The EURUSD pair plunged to 1.1100 following the US-China agreement on reducing reciprocal tariffs. Today's spotlight is on the US inflation report. Find more details in our analysis for 13 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today’s highlight is the US April inflation statistics, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: a downtrend prevails
• EURUSD forecast for 13 May 2025: 1.1200 and 1.1000

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair continues to decline as the US dollar gains strength amid optimism over a de-escalation in the US-China trade dispute. The two countries agreed to a 90-day reduction in tariffs after talks in Geneva, signalling a meaningful thaw in trade tensions that had intensified last month.

Today, all eyes are on the US CPI data for April. The consensus forecasts suggest an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Any substantial deviation from these expectations could fuel heightened volatility in the EURUSD pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD climbs again: risk appetite drives sterling higher

The GBPUSD pair has risen confidently to 1.3294 as investors continue buying amid a favourable risk environment. Full details in today’s analysis for 14 May 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• GBPUSD resumes its upward movement and continues to appreciate
• UK inflation may exceed expectations, delaying potential Bank of England rate cuts
• GBPUSD forecast for 14 May 2025: 1.3319 and 1.3346

Fundamental analysis

GBPUSD strengthened to 1.3294 on Wednesday. Market sentiment improved following a temporary tariff-reduction agreement between the US and China, which encouraged demand for risk assets globally.

The pound is benefiting from this positive backdrop and from stabilising macroeconomic conditions. Inflation dynamics in the UK have improved, bolstered by stronger trade relations with the US and India.

However, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill noted that inflation in the UK could be higher than the Bank’s forecasts, potentially requiring elevated interest rates to be maintained longer than markets anticipate. Last week, Pill voted against a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 48-basis-point rate reduction by year-end. No changes are expected at the BoE’s June meeting.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY on the verge of reversal: Double Bottom may trigger a rally to 149.05

The USDJPY rate continues to decline as sellers gear up for another attempt to test the key support level. The price currently stands at 146.03. Discover more in our analysis for 15 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Weak US inflation data supported the Japanese yen
• The USDJPY pair remains under pressure amid ongoing global trade uncertainty
• USDJPY forecast for 15 May 2025: 149.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has been declining for the third consecutive trading session. The US dollar is losing ground due to sustained uncertainty in global trade and speculation that the US administration favours a weaker dollar in the current negotiations. According to Washington, the relative weakness of Asian currencies gives regional exporters an unfair advantage over US companies.

Additional pressure came from weak US inflation data. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated that the Fed needs more information to assess how tariffs impact domestic prices. He noted that the central bank should not react to short-term stock market volatility or political commentary and cautioned against drawing quick conclusions about long-term trends amid high short-term fluctuations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) at risk: the market does not need insurance

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,218 USD on Friday. The week ends with a loss of around 3%, with the outlook remaining highly uncertain. Find out more in our analysis for 16 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are closing the week down by about 3% due to declining interest in safe-haven assets
• The Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts, which is negative for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 May 2025: 3,200 and 3,119

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 3,218 USD per troy ounce at the end of the week. The precious metal is closing this period with a roughly 3% loss. Gold has temporarily lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions.

The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days – a temporary measure, yet one that helped ease fears about prolonged fallout from their trade conflict. Geopolitical risks also subsided, with the truce between India and Pakistan remaining stable.

Soft US inflation data typically supports gold. These figures have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice by the end of 2025.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously mentioned that inflation could become more volatile in the future due to persistent supply disruptions. This scenario may complicate efforts by global central banks to maintain price stability.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD reversed upwards – will the rally continue?

The EURUSD pair has formed a local upward reversal after bouncing off the daily support level at 1.1065, with further growth possible. Discover more in our analysis for 19 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today, the market awaits eurozone inflation data for April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: upward movement is in progress
• EURUSD forecast for 19 May 2025: 1.1130 and 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

Investor attention is currently drawn to the UK-EU summit in London, where both sides aim to improve relations after years of tension following the 2016 Brexit vote. Constructive agreements may be reached.

As for the economic data, the market awaits April inflation statistics for the eurozone. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% month-on-month and by 2.2% year-on-year. Higher-than-expected inflation would push the pair higher, while weaker figures could trigger a downward reversal.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent keeps an eye on Iran’s nuclear program: everyone fears surprises

Brent is hovering at 65.53 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Market focus remains on developments involving Iran, dialogue with Russia, and China’s statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 20 May 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent prices edged higher and stabilised amid a heavy news flow
• China’s data and the Iran issue may influence commodity prices in the near term
• Brent forecast for 20 May 2025: 63.95 and 63.16

Fundamental analysis

Brent is trading around 65.53 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Prices are attempting to climb as the market reacts to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations. On Monday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi warned that the talks would fail if Washington insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment by Tehran.

Meanwhile, discussions about a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine are also unfolding. US President Donald Trump did not rule out ceasefire talks following his phone conversation with Russia’s leader. A potential truce could increase Russian oil exports if sanctions ease, which might cap further price gains.

Earlier, pressure on oil prices came from Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, which raised concerns about the economic outlook for the world’s largest oil consumer. Sentiment also suffered from slowing industrial production and retail sales in China.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY crashes amid Japan’s export boom

The USDJPY pair continues to move within a strong bearish impulse, with the price currently at 143.57. Find more details in our analysis for 21 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s exports rose 2% year-on-year in April
• Japan’s trade balance for April showed a deficit of 115.85 billion yen
• Markets are watching for a possible meeting between the Japanese and US finance ministers
• USDJPY forecast for 21 May 2025: 141.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is falling for the seventh consecutive trading session, supported by strong Japanese trade data. In April, exports rose by 2% year-on-year to 9.157 trillion yen, marking the seventh straight month of export growth, although at the slowest pace in that period.

The yen also gained support from a narrowing trade deficit. In April 2025, Japan’s trade balance recorded a shortfall of 115.85 billion yen, significantly better than the 504.69 billion yen deficit a year earlier. However, the result still fell short of market expectations for a surplus.

Market participants are closely watching for a potential meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The talks are expected to address currency market developments, particularly the yen’s sharp appreciation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team