RoboForex Team
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US 500 forecast: the index enters downtrend
After reaching its all-time high, the US 500 has entered a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.
US 500 forecast: key takeaways
The release of US initial jobless claims (231 thousand versus a forecast of 212 thousand and 209 thousand the previous week) provides a moderately negative short-term signal for the US 500 index, as it points to a more noticeable cooling of the labour market than the consensus expectation. At the same time, it is important to consider the scale: the level of claims remains below crisis levels and closer to the historically normal range.
For the US 500 index, the key factor in such conditions is typically the reaction of expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate. If the market interprets the increase in claims as a factor reducing the likelihood of further monetary tightening, some of the negative impact on stocks may be offset through lower bond yields and improved valuations of companies’ future cash flows.
RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
After reaching its all-time high, the US 500 has entered a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.
US 500 forecast: key takeaways
- Recent data: US initial jobless claims totalled 231 thousand last week
- Market impact: the data has a negative impact on the equity market
The release of US initial jobless claims (231 thousand versus a forecast of 212 thousand and 209 thousand the previous week) provides a moderately negative short-term signal for the US 500 index, as it points to a more noticeable cooling of the labour market than the consensus expectation. At the same time, it is important to consider the scale: the level of claims remains below crisis levels and closer to the historically normal range.
For the US 500 index, the key factor in such conditions is typically the reaction of expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate. If the market interprets the increase in claims as a factor reducing the likelihood of further monetary tightening, some of the negative impact on stocks may be offset through lower bond yields and improved valuations of companies’ future cash flows.
RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
