Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

JP 225 forecast: the index set to reach a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has completed its correction and resumed upward movement. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s current account for June stood at 3.436 trillion JPY
• Market impact: this indicates a healthy economic structure and currency balance support, which generally boosts investor confidence

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s latest current account data showed a surplus of 3.436 trillion JPY, well above the forecast of 2.940 trillion JPY and the previous figure of 2.258 trillion JPY. The growth in the current account indicates that Japan exports significantly more goods and services than it imports, or receives substantial income from overseas investments.

The JP 225 index, which includes the largest and most liquid stocks on the Japanese market, typically reacts positively to improving macroeconomic indicators. A growing current account reflects external stability, which increases investor risk appetite and supports stock growth, especially in stable and fast-growing sectors of the economy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY remains in a narrow range for five consecutive sessions

The USDJPY rate remains in a narrow range amid disagreements within the BoJ over the timing of future rate hikes. The current quote is 147.33. Find out more in our analysis for 8 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• BoJ members are split over the timing and pace of future rate hikes
• BoJ raised its inflation outlook and improved its economic forecast
• Growth in household spending in Japan slowed sharply in June
• USDJPY forecast for 8 August 2025: 150.50

Fundamental analysis

Today, the USDJPY rate is rising slightly, while remaining within the range that has held for five consecutive trading sessions. Buyers continue to defend the key 146.65 support level. The US dollar is strengthening after the release of the BoJ’s July meeting minutes, which revealed that board members are divided on the timing and pace of future rate hikes.

The central bank kept its interest rate at 0.5%, raised its inflation forecast, and presented a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook. Some BoJ officials warned of rising inflationary pressures and supported a gradual rate hike to avoid abrupt tightening. Others argued for maintaining the current accommodative stance, citing significant uncertainty over whether economic forecasts will materialise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

DE 40 forecast: the index has formed a downtrend, but it is likely to be short-term

The DE 40 stock index continues to correct after an uptrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s balance of trade for June 2025 totalled 14.9 billion EUR
• Market impact: a decline in the trade balance compared to forecasts and previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity, which will negatively affect the shares of exporting companies

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s trade balance for June 2025 came in at 14.9 billion EUR, below the forecast of 17.8 billion EUR and the previous reading of 18.6 billion EUR. The trade balance is the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period. A positive figure indicates that Germany exported more goods than it imported. A drop in the trade balance compared to both the forecast and the previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity. This may indicate weak external demand for German goods, which is a negative factor for the German economy and its large export-oriented companies.

The DE 40 index, which consists of the largest German companies, will come under pressure due to the worsening trade balance. Since most of the index companies operate in export-driven industries such as automotive, engineering, and chemical, a decline in exports will hurt their financial performance and negatively affect their share prices.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 500 forecast: quotes approach resistance, but the downtrend continues

The US 500 index remains in a downtrend, which is unlikely to be long-term. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in July
• Market impact: for the US stock market, such data has a mixed effect

Fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of US GDP. The July 2025 reading of 50.1 shows that the economy in the service segment continues to grow, but very weakly, and is almost on the verge of stagnation. The figure came in below the forecast of 51.5 and barely changed from the previous 50.8, indicating a lack of strong growth drivers and possibly declining business confidence in the industry.

For the US stock market, such data has a mixed impact. On one hand, weak service sector figures cool expectations for corporate earnings growth in consumer-facing industries and raise concerns about the sustainability of domestic demand. This could put negative pressure on the broad US 500 index, especially in cyclical sectors that depend on economic activity.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY falls below 148.00

The USDJPY pair is declining, moving below 148.00 following the release of US inflation data. Find more details in our analysis for 13 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in line with forecasts
• Current trend: moving downwards
• USDJPY forecast for 13 August 2025: 148.50 or 147.00

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen strengthened after the release of US consumer inflation data, which matched forecasts, rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. This boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.

In Japan, business sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in August following a trade deal with Washington. The agreement reduced US tariffs on cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a Japanese investment package worth 550 billion USD.

Bank of Japan board members remain divided over the timing and pace of future rate hikes. While some policymakers favour maintaining the current accommodative policy for now, they also pointed to uncertainty over whether current economic forecasts will materialise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team