Gold (XAUUSD) continues its rally: Fed rate outlook provides support
Gold (XAUUSD) prices stand at 3,550 USD by the end of the week. Pressure on the Fed is opening new opportunities for the precious metal. Find more details in our analysis for 5 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to climb, hitting new record highs
Expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts provide strong support for gold
XAUUSD forecast for 5 September 2025: 3,564 and 3,578
Fundamental analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 3,550 USD per ounce on Friday and remains near record highs, showing a weekly gain of over 3%. Support for the metal comes from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Weakness in the labour market – falling job vacancies, rising layoffs, and an increase in initial jobless claims to a two-month high – has strengthened expectations of Fed easing. The market is now pricing in not only a September rate cut but also up to three moves by the end of the year. This is favourable for gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
DE 40 forecast: the index enters a downtrend within the correction phase
The growth momentum of the DE 40 index has slowed. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.
DE 40 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Germany’s factory orders for July 2025 fell by 2.9%
Market impact: this signals potential difficulties in industry and mechanical engineering for the German equity market
Fundamental analysis
Germany’s factory orders for August 2025 showed a sharp decline, with the actual reading at -2.9% versus the forecast of +0.5% and the previous level of -0.2%. This result indicates a significant drop in industrial demand, reflecting weaker domestic and external activity in the country’s key economic sector. For the German equity market, this signals potential challenges for industry and mechanical engineering, which traditionally form the backbone of the economy.
Negative orders dynamics lower expectations for future output and exports, reducing the investment appeal of companies linked to heavy industry, machinery, and component supply. For the DE 40 index, the overall impact is assessed as negative. The decline in orders undermines expectations for steady corporate earnings growth and may reinforce investor caution.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 500 forecast: prices attempt to break above resistance and set a new all-time high
The US 500 continues to rise but has not yet managed to overcome the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls for August came in at 22 thousand
Market impact: for the US equity market, this has a rather positive effect in the medium term
Fundamental analysis
The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data for August 2025 showed 22 thousand new jobs, well below the forecast of 75 thousand and significantly weaker than the previous 79 thousand. This result signals a slowdown in labour market dynamics, which has multiple implications for the US stock market.
From a macroeconomic perspective, such a weak reading indicates declining demand from employers and potential cooling of the economy. For the US 500, this can act as a double-edged factor. On the one hand, weakness in employment may increase concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. On the other hand, a softer labour market could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a looser monetary policy than previously anticipated.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 30 forecast: the uptrend continues, but resistance has not yet been broken
After reaching a new all-time high, the trend in the US 30 index remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.
US 30 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the US PMI for August came in at 55.5
Market impact: for US equities, this result signals a cautious investor sentiment
Fundamental analysis
The US unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in line with market forecasts but above 4.2% in July. From a macroeconomic perspective, this indicates a gradual cooling of the labour market: a moderate rise in unemployment eases wage pressure and reduces service-sector inflation. In terms of financial conditions, this is generally favourable, as expectations of a softer monetary policy path increase, Treasury yields tend to decline, and funding costs for companies decrease. At the same time, the fact that unemployment is rising points to a slower pace of economic growth.
For the US 30, the signal is mixed. If markets interpret the figure as evidence of a soft landing, we may see a short-term improvement in risk appetite driven by lower yields and stronger expectations of Fed easing. However, if focus shifts to risks for growth momentum, the index could show a more restrained performance given its heavy weighting in cyclical sectors.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 forecast: the uptrend has returned, with a new all-time high expected
The JP 225 index has resumed growth within its upward channel. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.
JP 225 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Japan’s quarterly GDP for August grew by 0.5% year-on-year
Market impact: this result is positive for the Japanese equity market
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s Q2 GDP showed growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, above the forecast of 0.3% and the previous reading of 0.1%. This result signals that the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovery after a slowdown, which can boost investor confidence and support equities.
For the JP 225 index, this data is a broadly positive factor. GDP growth indicates stronger domestic demand and more resilient production and export dynamics, directly supporting revenues of Japan’s largest corporations included in the index. The financial sector benefits from rising economic activity, as it increases demand for loans and investment services. Industrial and export-oriented companies also gain support from higher global and domestic demand for Japanese goods.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The AUDUSD pair is consolidating around 0.6660 on Friday. The Australian dollar has every chance to close the week with its best result since April. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
The Australian dollar benefits from the weakening of the US dollar
Inflation risks in Australia support the RBA’s cautious stance on rates
AUDUSD forecast for 12 September 2025: 0.6669
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate has slightly declined, hovering near 0.6660, close to its highest level since early November 2024. The pair is on track to show its best week since April. Support for the AUD has come from improved risk appetite and expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut in the US.
US statistics showed stable inflation in August, while a rise in jobless claims confirmed weakness in the labour market. High metal prices, particularly for gold and silver, provided additional support for the Australian currency.
Domestic news in Australia showed that consumer inflation expectations rose in September after a decline in the previous month. This signals more resilient demand and renewed inflationary risks. RBA Governor Michele Bullock pointed to signs of somewhat stronger growth in the private sector, calling it a positive for the economy.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
DE 40 forecast: the index moves into a sideways channel
The DE 40 stock index has entered a sideways channel. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.
DE 40 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the ECB key interest rate remains at 2.15% per annum
Market impact: for the German equity market, this signals no additional borrowing cost pressure, which is seen as a stabilising factor
Fundamental analysis
The ECB decision to keep rates unchanged at 2.15% signals status quo in monetary policy. For the DE 40 index, this reduces short-term uncertainty and helps form a neutral sentiment among investors.
The financial sector, including banks and insurance companies, faces limited margin growth potential as lending yields remain stable. Industrial companies and exporters benefit from favourable financing conditions, which support investment in production and external trade. The consumer sector also gains indirect support: unchanged rates keep credit conditions affordable, sustaining household demand.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Brent quotes remain in a phase of steady growth, influenced by geopolitical factors and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decisions. The exchange rate currently stands at 67.23 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 16 September 2025.
Brent forecast: key trading points
Investors await the Fed meeting and anticipate an interest rate cut
A Federal Reserve rate cut could stimulate economic activity and fuel demand
Possible EU sanctions may complicate logistics and reduce crude supply availability on the global market
Brent forecast for 16 September 2025: 67.50
Fundamental analysis
Brent prices are moderately rising, posting a third consecutive positive trading session after rebounding from the 65.50 USD support level. The market remains under pressure from geopolitical risks linked to Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, which heightens fears of supply disruptions and potential global output cuts.
An additional supportive factor comes from the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting. Investors are pricing in a rate cut, which could boost economic activity and fuel demand.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 30 forecast: the uptrend continues, resistance remains unbroken
After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.
US 30 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the US core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in August
Market impact: the current reading may have a mixed effect on the US equity market
Fundamental analysis
The US core CPI for August 2025 showed growth of 3.1% year-on-year, matching analysts’ forecasts and remaining unchanged from the previous month. This reflects persistent inflationary pressure in the economy, excluding volatile food and energy categories.
The index’s stability at above 3% highlights that inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of around 2%. This signals to markets the need to maintain tight monetary policy. For US stocks, the data sets a neutral-to-restrained tone: on the one hand, the lack of deterioration (no sharp inflation spike) reduces the risk of aggressive Fed tightening, but on the other hand, inflation staying above target caps expectations of an imminent policy easing.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 forecast: prices approach the upper boundary of the upward channel
The JP 225 index continued to rise within the upward channel and hit a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.
JP 225 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Japan’s balance of trade for August came in at -242.5 billion JPY
Market impact: this result carries a positive signal for the Japanese equity market
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s balance of trade for August 2025 stood at -242.5 billion JPY, better than the forecast of -513.6 billion JPY but weaker than the previous reading of -118.4 billion JPY. Although the trade deficit remained, the gap turned out nearly half as small as expected. This indicates stronger external economic conditions than anticipated and reduces concerns about pressure on the trade sector.
For the JP 225 index, the impact is mixed: on the upside, the result exceeded expectations, which supports confidence in Japanese companies’ export activity. On the downside, the deficit still widened compared to last month, reflecting reliance on energy and raw material imports.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The USDJPY pair has stabilised around 148.00. Although inflation data improved slightly, market tension remains. Find more details in our analysis for 19 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
The USDJPY pair recouped losses and is stabilising
The market awaits the Bank of Japan’s decision and assesses fresh inflation data
USDJPY forecast for 19 September 2025: 148.26
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is consolidating at 148.00 on Friday amid expectations of the Bank of Japan decision. The market generally expects the key rate to remain at 0.5%, although the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike in October is gradually increasing amid economic resilience.
Core inflation in Japan slowed to 2.7% in August, the lowest since November 2024. The decline is mainly due to the resumption of government subsidies for electricity and gas, as well as price adjustments for food products. At the same time, the rise in rice prices remains the main factor of inflationary pressure: in August, the price increased by 68.8% year-over-year, following jumps of almost 100% in June and 90.7% in July.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
XAUUSD prices continue to strengthen, climbing above their all-time high into the 3,720 USD area as the US dollar weakens following the Fed’s rate cut. Discover more in our analysis for 22 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
Market focus: gold has set a new all-time high around 3,720 USD
Current trend: strong upward momentum persists
XAUUSD forecast for 22 September 2025: 3,750 or 3,700
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD quotes reached a new all-time high at 3,720 USD per ounce. Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data and commentary from several Federal Reserve officials this week to assess the outlook for monetary policy.
Last week, the Fed cut rates for the first time this year, lowering its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, while signalling room for further easing due to labour market weakness. Markets are currently pricing in two more 25-basis-point cuts this year, with one in October and another in December.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
USDJPY: dollar strengthens, but gains capped by resistance
The USDJPY rate remains in consolidation within a sideways range, with the market focused on upcoming Fed remarks and key US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 147.81. Find out more in our analysis for 23 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
Bank of Japan kept its key rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting
The regulator highlighted a moderate economic recovery in Japan
The BoJ pointed to risks associated with global trade policy
USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2025: 149.60
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is strengthening while remaining within a sideways range as sellers defend the key resistance level at 148.15. Market focus is on upcoming Fed commentary ahead of fresh US inflation data.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that the current federal funds rate is too high and should be reduced to protect the US labour market. Scheduled for Tuesday are speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. On Friday, market participants will focus on the August report on US personal income and outlays, which includes the core PCE price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
GBPUSD under pressure: domestic news looks unimpressive
The GBPUSD pair dropped to 1.3505. Investors are avoiding risks amid worsening conditions. Discover more in our analysis for 24 September 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
The GBPUSD pair declines amid market doubts about the Bank of England’s stance
Domestic political contradictions also undermine the stability of the pound
GBPUSD forecast for 24 September 2025: 1.3450
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, the GBPUSD pair is falling to 1.3505 after a survey reflected a slowdown in business activity in the UK in early September. Companies reported a decline in momentum and confidence amid rising risks of tax hikes before the end of the year.
The preliminary S&P Global UK composite PMI fell from 53.5 points in August to 51.0 in September.
The pound struggles to sustain growth even against the backdrop of positive investor sentiment and British equities at record levels. Markets are pricing in only 7 basis points of Bank of England rate cuts before the end of the year.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 forecast: the index approached the upper boundary of the ascending channel and hit new all-time high
The JP 225 stock index continues to rise within the ascending channel. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.
JP 225 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the Bank of Japan policy rate remains at 0.50%
Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is moderately positive
Fundamental analysis
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, in line with forecasts and the previous level. This decision signals continued cautious normalisation of monetary conditions without additional tightening that could significantly increase capital costs for corporations. Short-term uncertainty declines, and the risk premium on Japanese equities generally remains stable.
For the JP 225, the impact can be described as neutral to positive. The decision was widely expected, which supports investor appetite for risk assets and allows markets to focus on corporate earnings and global demand. The yen remains a key factor: a stable or weaker currency boosts export revenue conversion, traditionally providing support for the index.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EURUSD disappointed by expectations: the market agrees with the Fed
The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1677 on Friday. Investors have become more optimistic regarding the Fed’s rate outlook. Discover more in our analysis for 26 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
The EURUSD pair ends the week with a noticeable decline
The overall Federal Reserve rate outlook has turned more optimistic
EURUSD forecast for 26 September 2025: 1.1644
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1677 at the end of the week.
Investors are awaiting the release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge, which should provide new guidance on future policy.
On Thursday, data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims by 14 thousand to 218 thousand, significantly better than forecasts. The statistics indicate companies’ reluctance to lay off staff. Revised GDP figures also confirmed 3.8% annualized growth in Q2, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years, supported by strong consumer spending.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
DE 40 forecast: the index breaks out of the sideways channel and continues to decline
The DE 40 index approached a resistance level, but the downtrend continues. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.
DE 40 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 came in at 87.7 points
Market impact: the figures create a restrictive backdrop for the German equity market
Fundamental analysis
Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 stood at 87.7 points, below the forecast of 89.3 and lower than the previous figure of 88.9. This reflects weakening optimism among German companies, with cautious expectations regarding business activity, domestic demand, and external conditions. The decline highlights ongoing pressure from high costs, weak exports, and global economic uncertainty.
For the German equity market, these figures form a restrictive backdrop. Declining business sentiment could reinforce investor caution, particularly in industry, machinery, and exports, which are traditionally sensitive to shifts in the business climate. Much will depend on the ECB’s next steps — any monetary easing could help support the German economy.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
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