Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

US 500 forecast: the index may enter a sideways channel

The US 500 index sees elevated volatility, with a sideways range likely to form. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 178 thousand in March
• Market impact: the data is negative for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, 3 April, US employment data for March 2026 was released. At first glance, the figures appear very strong: the economy added 178 thousand jobs compared to a forecast of just 49 thousand. But if you look deeper, the picture is not that optimistic. Out of those 178 thousand jobs, about 76 thousand were doctors and healthcare workers who returned to work after the Kaiser Permanente strike ended.

For the US 500, the impact is not entirely positive. A stronger labour market reduces the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Following the report, expectations increased that the Federal Reserve will maintain a more hawkish stance and will not rush to cut rates.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) in positive territory, but the pause looks fragile

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,800 USD. A catastrophe in the Middle East has not happened so far. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) is in positive territory, but there are still too many geopolitical risks
• Since the start of the Middle East conflict, gold has fallen by 25% from its peak values
• XAUUSD forecast for 8 April 2026: 4,700 or 4,850

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, moving above the 4,800 USD per ounce mark and continuing its recovery. The market received support from Donald Trump’s statements about postponing strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure for two weeks to complete negotiations.

Less than two hours before the set deadline, Trump announced a bilateral ceasefire on condition that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. He also reported receiving a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he described as a working basis for further negotiations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent on the edge: the truce collapsed – the market is preparing for a new shock

The ceasefire agreement sent Brent quotes plummeting, but a new upward wave is now possible, with a test of the 112.45 USD mark and eventually 150.00 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 9 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices have plummeted to 92.00 USD per barrel and are attempting to recover
• The ceasefire between Iran and the US has practically collapsed
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 9 April 2026, takes into account that the oil market is going through a dramatic two-act story, with prices first plunging on news of the ceasefire and then sharply reversing as it effectively collapsed. Brent crude is hovering around 94.00 USD per barrel in the morning, recovering losses after yesterday’s fall below 90.00 USD.

Act one: euphoria and collapse. It all started when US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran just an hour and a half before his ultimatum expired. The terms of the agreement were that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift part of the sanctions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US Tech forecast: the index resumed its upward movement with a strong impulse

The US Tech index broke through resistance with a strong impulse and formed an uptrend. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: U.S. GDP for March increased by 0.5%
• Market impact: for the technology sector, the current data are mixed

Fundamental analysis

The release of the U.S. GDP data looks restrainedly negative for the US Tech index overall. The U.S. economy grew only 0.5% (annualized) in Q4 2025, while the consensus expected 0.7%, and the previous quarter showed growth of 4.4%. This signals a noticeable slowdown in business activity and confirms that the economy entered 2026 with weaker momentum than the market had assumed.

For US Tech, the initial reaction may be mixed, but in the base scenario the news is more likely to worsen the fundamental backdrop. On the one hand, weaker GDP is a signal of more moderate economic growth, meaning the market may revise down expectations for sales growth at companies tied to advertising, corporate budgets, e-commerce, and consumer activity.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD weekly forecast: data and Islamabad will decide

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 13–17 April near 1.1687 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and mixed US macro data. The market is watching the Islamabad talks involving JD Vance and assessing the outlook for inflation and Federal Open Market Committee policy.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Market focus: EURUSD ended the week at 1.1687
• Current trend: after the decline, EURUSD formed a local low in the 1.3150–1.3200 area
• Outlook for the week: the baseline scenario is consolidation in the 1.3300–1.3450 range with attempts to break higher

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the April week at 1.1687. Investors’ focus is on the Islamabad talks, where the US delegation is led by JD Vance. The market is hoping for more clarity on the conflict outlook, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Strikes in the region and disruptions to operations in the Strait of Hormuz keep risks to any agreements elevated and limit risk appetite.

US macroeconomic data look uneven. GDP growth in Q4 slowed to 0.5% q/q versus 4.4% previously, signaling cooling in the economy. The labor market is sending mixed signals: initial jobless claims rose to 219K, but continuing claims fell to 1.794M.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 500 forecast: the index resumed growth on positive expectations from the Iran–US talks

The US 500 index formed an uptrend due to the start of talks between the US and Iran, but the threat of the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz triggered a corrective decline. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US CPI in March came in at 3.3% year-on-year
• Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

US inflation data showing annual consumer price growth at 3.3% versus a 3.4% forecast appears moderately positive for the US 500 at first glance, as the actual figure came in slightly below market expectations. For investors, this suggests price pressure was not as strong as previously feared. However, it is also important to note that the previous reading was notably lower at 2.4%, meaning inflation still accelerated compared to the previous period.

Overall, this data creates a mixed but rather supportive backdrop for the US 500. The positive aspect is that inflation did not exceed the forecast, so the pressure on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may be somewhat lower than it would have been with a higher reading.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team