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NZD/USD: One-month forecast raised to 0.70


NZD/USD spiked higher on the back of today’s strong CPI inflation release to test the 200 day-average at 0.7102 before pulling back. Accordingly, economists at Rabobank have upgraded their NZD/USD one-month forecast to 0.70 from 0.69.

This morning’s release of New Zealand Q3 CPI inflation data at a much faster than expected 4.9% YoY has been the trigger for the latest spate of fears around RBNZ policy. The market is assuming that a 25 bps rate hike at the November 24 policy meeting is a done deal. This implies that the key element for markets in the coming weeks surrounds the risk of a larger move.

What do you think about it?