USDCAD Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the US Dollar (USD) is influenced by The Conference Board’s Leading Indicators release, measuring economic direction through employment, housing, consumer confidence, and stock market trends. A higher-than-expected result could strengthen the USD. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) anticipates volatility due to the release of Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) from Statistics Canada, significant indicators of inflation trends. Additionally, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) Senior Loan Officer Survey results could heavily impact CAD through insights on business conditions, investments, and inflation expectations.


Price Action:
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 timeframe, after breaking short-term resistance (Resistance 1), the price advanced towards the significant 5-month resistance (Resistance 2), moving within a clear ascending channel. Recently, the price briefly broke above this resistance and then pulled back, retesting the channel's bottom line, confirming support. The ongoing bullish candles indicate a potential continuation upwards, supported by noticeable divergence between price and key oscillators, signaling the beginning of a bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (21): The 21-period Moving Average acts as a dynamic support line. The USDCAD price is currently above this average, suggesting bullish momentum is maintained, offering traders confidence in long positions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 53.06, RSI indicates neutral to mildly bullish conditions. There's sufficient room before reaching overbought territory, supporting the potential continuation of upward momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows a positive but decreasing histogram, with the MACD line narrowly above the signal line. Although bullish momentum persists, traders should be vigilant for a potential weakening in upward pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator: At 57.39, the Stochastic indicator reflects moderate upward momentum, further reinforcing the current bullish stance. The crossover suggests continued bullish activity, supporting further price gains.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 1.3640. Stronger historical support appears at the previous Resistance 1 line.
Resistance: The nearest critical resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 1.3780, with further robust resistance at the 5-month descending trendline (Resistance 2).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD pair exhibits bullish signals on the H4 chart, supported by Moving Average positioning, RSI neutrality, MACD positive crossover, and a rising Stochastic Oscillator. However, traders should remain cautious due to potential volatility from key fundamental economic releases from both the USD and CAD today. It's advisable to manage risks carefully and consider both technical and fundamental factors before entering trades.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.21.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD currency pair could see increased volatility today as markets prepare for high-impact USD and CAD news releases. On the USD side, remarks from US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem may influence expectations for fiscal policy and interest rate direction. Any hawkish language from the Fed could strengthen the USD. From the CAD side, key employment change and unemployment rate data will be released by Statistics Canada. Strong labor market results would likely boost the Canadian Dollar, putting downward pressure on USDCAD. Traders should monitor these events closely, as the combination of US political and monetary commentary with Canadian economic data could spark significant intraday moves.


Price Action:
After a sharp bullish rally, USDCAD broke its uptrend line with a strong bearish candle, pulling back into the previously broken zone near 1.37646. Price is currently consolidating around this level, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. Given the recent momentum, the correction phase could be near completion. If buying pressure returns, the next upside target could be 1.38201, while further selling momentum could push the price toward 1.37391 as the next potential reversal point.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Last few dots are above the price, confirming the current bearish bias. However, the flatter alignment of recent dots suggests a slowdown in bearish momentum, which could pave the way for a bullish reversal if supported by fundamentals.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 50.78, reflecting neutral conditions. The market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction.
MACD (12,26,9): With the MACD line at 0.000181 and the signal line at 0.000815, momentum appears to be weakening. The histogram is edging toward negative territory, aligning with the consolidation phase and hinting at potential bearish continuation unless buying volume increases.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.37646, which represents the current consolidation area and a previously broken level now acting as a test zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.38201, which aligns with recent highs and serves as the next upside target if bullish momentum resumes.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 chart is showing a consolidation phase after breaking its bullish structure. Parabolic SAR remains bearish, RSI is neutral, and MACD indicates fading bullish momentum. With today’s US speeches and Canadian employment data ahead, traders should expect volatility spikes. A confirmed break above 1.38201 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below 1.37646 might open the way to 1.37391. Caution is advised, and confirmation from both technical and fundamental cues should guide trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.08.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.26.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD-CAD pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today, significant volatility can be expected in USD-related pairs due to multiple key events. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams and Richmond President Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak, potentially impacting monetary policy sentiment. Data on Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation items will be closely watched as they serve as leading indicators for manufacturing activity. Additionally, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's speech on flexible inflation targeting at the Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference could induce CAD volatility. Traders should remain cautious and alert to sudden market moves.


Price Action
The USD/CAD pair has shown a clear bullish price action on the H4 timeframe. After maintaining an overall uptrend since mid-2021, the recent correction to Fibonacci retracement levels between 38.2% and 50% appears to have completed. Price has rebounded decisively, signaling a continuation of the bullish momentum. The market is currently aiming at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, but the psychological resistance zone at 1.40000 remains a critical test ahead. Traders should closely monitor candlestick patterns around this key resistance for potential reversals or continuations.


Key Technical Indicators
RSI (28): Currently at 53.4, the RSI indicates balanced market conditions, with neither overbought nor oversold levels present. This mid-level position allows ample room for the price to move higher, supporting the potential continuation of the bullish trend in USD CAD.
MACD (24,52,12): With values of 0.001697 and 0.002648, the MACD indicator shows bullish momentum, as the MACD line remains above the signal line. The positive histogram further confirms sustained bullish pressure. Traders should monitor the MACD closely for any divergence signs that might indicate a weakening trend.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support stands at the 1.3750 Fibonacci level, aligned with recent swing lows and the previous correction bottom.
Resistance: Key resistance is located at the psychological 1.4000 level, a major barrier that could potentially halt or slow down bullish momentum before price reaches the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD VS. CAD H4 chart analysis suggests a bullish outlook supported by current fundamental factors, recent price action, and technical indicators. Price action has returned to its broader uptrend after a healthy Fibonacci correction, with indicators pointing towards further bullish potential. However, traders must exercise caution due to today's high-impact speeches and durable goods data, potentially introducing market volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.26.2025