USDCAD Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the US Dollar (USD) is influenced by The Conference Board’s Leading Indicators release, measuring economic direction through employment, housing, consumer confidence, and stock market trends. A higher-than-expected result could strengthen the USD. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) anticipates volatility due to the release of Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) from Statistics Canada, significant indicators of inflation trends. Additionally, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) Senior Loan Officer Survey results could heavily impact CAD through insights on business conditions, investments, and inflation expectations.


Price Action:
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 timeframe, after breaking short-term resistance (Resistance 1), the price advanced towards the significant 5-month resistance (Resistance 2), moving within a clear ascending channel. Recently, the price briefly broke above this resistance and then pulled back, retesting the channel's bottom line, confirming support. The ongoing bullish candles indicate a potential continuation upwards, supported by noticeable divergence between price and key oscillators, signaling the beginning of a bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (21): The 21-period Moving Average acts as a dynamic support line. The USDCAD price is currently above this average, suggesting bullish momentum is maintained, offering traders confidence in long positions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 53.06, RSI indicates neutral to mildly bullish conditions. There's sufficient room before reaching overbought territory, supporting the potential continuation of upward momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows a positive but decreasing histogram, with the MACD line narrowly above the signal line. Although bullish momentum persists, traders should be vigilant for a potential weakening in upward pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator: At 57.39, the Stochastic indicator reflects moderate upward momentum, further reinforcing the current bullish stance. The crossover suggests continued bullish activity, supporting further price gains.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 1.3640. Stronger historical support appears at the previous Resistance 1 line.
Resistance: The nearest critical resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 1.3780, with further robust resistance at the 5-month descending trendline (Resistance 2).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD pair exhibits bullish signals on the H4 chart, supported by Moving Average positioning, RSI neutrality, MACD positive crossover, and a rising Stochastic Oscillator. However, traders should remain cautious due to potential volatility from key fundamental economic releases from both the USD and CAD today. It's advisable to manage risks carefully and consider both technical and fundamental factors before entering trades.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.21.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD currency pair could see increased volatility today as markets prepare for high-impact USD and CAD news releases. On the USD side, remarks from US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem may influence expectations for fiscal policy and interest rate direction. Any hawkish language from the Fed could strengthen the USD. From the CAD side, key employment change and unemployment rate data will be released by Statistics Canada. Strong labor market results would likely boost the Canadian Dollar, putting downward pressure on USDCAD. Traders should monitor these events closely, as the combination of US political and monetary commentary with Canadian economic data could spark significant intraday moves.


Price Action:
After a sharp bullish rally, USDCAD broke its uptrend line with a strong bearish candle, pulling back into the previously broken zone near 1.37646. Price is currently consolidating around this level, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. Given the recent momentum, the correction phase could be near completion. If buying pressure returns, the next upside target could be 1.38201, while further selling momentum could push the price toward 1.37391 as the next potential reversal point.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Last few dots are above the price, confirming the current bearish bias. However, the flatter alignment of recent dots suggests a slowdown in bearish momentum, which could pave the way for a bullish reversal if supported by fundamentals.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 50.78, reflecting neutral conditions. The market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction.
MACD (12,26,9): With the MACD line at 0.000181 and the signal line at 0.000815, momentum appears to be weakening. The histogram is edging toward negative territory, aligning with the consolidation phase and hinting at potential bearish continuation unless buying volume increases.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.37646, which represents the current consolidation area and a previously broken level now acting as a test zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.38201, which aligns with recent highs and serves as the next upside target if bullish momentum resumes.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 chart is showing a consolidation phase after breaking its bullish structure. Parabolic SAR remains bearish, RSI is neutral, and MACD indicates fading bullish momentum. With today’s US speeches and Canadian employment data ahead, traders should expect volatility spikes. A confirmed break above 1.38201 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below 1.37646 might open the way to 1.37391. Caution is advised, and confirmation from both technical and fundamental cues should guide trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.08.2025