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📈Weekly Outlook + Impact Reaction📉

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 19, 2025​

⚡ Sunday’s late-session release featured only one high-impact event — New Zealand’s quarterly inflation data. As a key gauge of price pressures, the report provided critical insight into domestic demand, cost dynamics, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currency: NZD
🕒 21:45 GMT
🇳🇿 New Zealand – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: NZD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Inflation is the primary indicator guiding RBNZ monetary policy decisions. A stable reading near target suggests controlled price growth, while any deviation can shift expectations for future rate adjustments.
✅ Focus centred on New Zealand’s inflation path, as markets assessed whether stable price levels would keep the RBNZ comfortable holding rates steady or revive expectations of policy changes in the months ahead.

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 20, 2025​

⚡ Monday’s session featured only high-impact releases across major economies, led by China’s GDP, retail, and industrial data, followed by inflation indicators from Germany and Canada, and the U.S. Leading Index. Together, these figures provided a global snapshot of economic growth, price pressures, and early signals for market direction at the start of the week.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CNY, EUR, CAD, USD
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-Quarter
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 1.1%
💱 Currency: CNY
💡 Why Traders Care:
Quarterly GDP growth offers the most direct measure of China’s economic momentum. A slowdown would underscore weakening industrial output and exports, while resilience supports regional and global risk sentiment.
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – GDP Growth Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 4.9% | Previous: 5.2%
💱 Currency: CNY
💬 Market lens:
Annual growth reflects broader economic performance. A softer reading reinforces expectations for additional policy support, while stronger data could ease stimulus pressure.
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Industrial Production Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.2%
💱 Currency: CNY
🎯 Market mover:
Industrial activity remains a cornerstone of China’s economy. Consistent production growth suggests steady manufacturing demand despite global trade headwinds.
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.4%
💱 Currency: CNY
💡 Why Traders Care:
Retail performance highlights consumer confidence and domestic demand strength. A slowdown may signal spending fatigue and weigh on growth expectations.
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: 5.3%
💱 Currency: CNY
💬 Market lens:
A modest improvement in employment conditions indicates gradual stabilization, supporting the outlook for household consumption.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
Easing producer price declines suggest early signs of cost stabilization. Persistent weakness, however, reinforces the eurozone’s disinflation trend.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.9% | Previous: -2.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
Falling producer prices reflect subdued manufacturing demand and low inflation pressures — key factors shaping ECB rate expectations.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 4.6% | Previous: 4.0%
💱 Currency: CAD
🎯 Market mover:
Rising producer prices indicate higher input costs, potentially signaling inflation persistence and shaping the Bank of Canada’s rate stance.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
Monthly price moderation could ease inflationary pressure, influencing short-term expectations for policy adjustments.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – CB Leading Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.5%
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why Traders Care:
This composite index aggregates ten major indicators to signal turning points in the U.S. economy. Consecutive declines often foreshadow slower growth or potential contraction periods.
✅ Monday’s calendar is set to open the week with a heavy focus on China’s economic trajectory and global price trends. Market sentiment will hinge on whether the data signal resilience or reveal mounting headwinds for the world’s major economies.
The chart displays USD/CAD on a 5-minute scale after Canada’s PPI release on September 22, 2025, isolating the data-driven move and ensuing volatility to show how a single print can quickly shift sentiment and the CAD.

USDCAD.jpg


​

Canada's PPI YoY and PPI MoM Release - 22 September, 2025​

In August 2025, Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose 0.5% m/m and 4.0% y/y as higher prices for chemicals, meat/fish/dairy (+1.9% led by beef +5.2% and chicken +2.1% on strong demand and tight supply), motorized vehicles, and primary non-ferrous metals (+1.0% on gold +1.6% and silver +1.9%) outweighed a 1.3% drop in energy and petroleum (crude −3.9%; refined −1.5%; diesel −6.0% while gasoline +1.8% on summer demand); IPPI ex-energy increased 0.7%. Year over year, gains were driven by precious metals (+36.3%), beef (+28.9%), and poultry (+18.4%), partly offset by finished gasoline (−5.4% on base effects). The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) fell 0.6% m/m (ex-crude energy +0.9%) as crude energy slid 3.7% amid OPEC+ supply concerns, while metal ores rose 2.0% (gold/silver ores +2.1%, twelfth monthly gain) and crop products fell 1.7% on canola (−6.4%) after Chinese tariffs. Year over year, the RMPI rose 3.2% (ex-crude energy +15.5%), led by precious-metal ores (+37.0%) and cattle/calves (+19.9%), with declines in conventional (−16.2%) and synthetic crude (−16.6%) tempering the increase.

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, USD/CAD traded at 1.38115
  • At an open price of 1.38115, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.
Pip Value (USD/CAD): $7.24 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a long at Point A (1.38115) and closing at Point C (1.38316) captured 20.1 pips, equivalent to $145.52 USD profit on one standard lot.

Alternatively, entering long at Point B (1.37931) and closing at Point C (1.38316) captured 38.5 pips, equivalent to $278.74 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 21, 2025​

⚡ Tuesday features only high-impact releases from Canada, with a full slate of inflation prints that will steer BoC expectations and CAD volatility. Preparing ahead of these releases helps you view the forecasts and plan entries accordingly—these numbers can move markets within seconds.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currency: CAD

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 1.9%
💱 Currency: CAD
🔍 Market insight:
A step toward 2% signals headline inflation is edging closer to target. A hotter print would firm BoC hawkish expectations; a softer one supports a patient stance.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
Another negative monthly read would underline disinflationary momentum into Q4. A surprise uptick risks re-pricing front-end CAD rates.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Short-term interest rates hinge on inflation trends. Core strips out volatile items and is closely watched to anticipate where the BoC may set policy rates next.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.6%
💱 Currency: CAD
🧭 Trading angle:
A firmer core YoY keeps underlying pressures sticky and can lift CAD; a downside surprise would argue for a more dovish path.

✅ Tuesday’s calendar is set to centre CAD price action on inflation. Market focus will be on whether core measures firm enough to nudge BoC rhetoric hawkish—or ease back toward a steady hold into year-end.


The chart displays CAD/JPY on a 5-minute scale after Canada’s inflation release on September 16, 2025, isolating the data-driven move and ensuing volatility to show how a single print can quickly shift sentiment and the CAD.

Screenshot 2025-10-20 152326.jpg


Canada's Inflation Report - 16 September 2025​

Canada’s inflation picture stayed mild ahead of the Bank of Canada’s decision, as headline CPI rose to 1.9% y/y in August from 1.7% in July—below the ~2% consensus—while CPI fell 0.1% m/m (seasonally adjusted +0.2%). Core gauges were steady to softer (CPI-median 3.1%, CPI-trim 3.0%, with three-month annualized trends near 2.5%). Gasoline’s drag narrowed (-12.7% y/y versus -16.1% in July) amid higher refining margins, food inflation +3.4% featured beef +12.7%, and shelter pressures persisted (rent +4.5%, mortgage interest +4.2%). Economists largely judged the print unthreatening, with CIBC and Desjardins calling a 25 bp cut on Wednesday likely and more easing possible, while BMO warned a September gas rebound could lift headline CPI and RBC said the decision was a “close call.” Regionally, prices accelerated in eight provinces, led by Quebec +2.7% and Nova Scotia +2.2%.

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, CAD/JPY traded at 106.914

  • At an open price of 106.914, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 CAD ($145.43 USD).
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 CAD ($36.36 USD).

Pip Value (CAD/JPY): $9.35 CAD ($6.80 USD) per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a short at Point A (106.914) and closing at Point B (106.437) would have captured 47.7 pips, equivalent to a $446 CAD ($338.85 USD) profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behaviour and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 22, 2025​

⚡ Wednesday’s agenda is fully loaded with inflation data out of the United Kingdom. With both core and headline CPI figures scheduled, markets will closely assess whether persistent price pressures could delay Bank of England policy easing or revive expectations for rate hikes.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currency: GBP

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.6%
💱 Currency: GBP
💡 Why Traders Care:
Core CPI strips out volatile elements like food and energy, offering a clearer view of underlying inflation. A rise would signal persistent domestic pressures and complicate any BoE pivot toward easing.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 3.8%
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Market lens:
Headline inflation is seen ticking higher, keeping it double the BoE's 2% target. A hotter-than-expected reading would likely firm up GBP as markets price in hawkish bias.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔍 Market insight:
Monthly price growth appears to be moderating slightly. A softer print could suggest easing momentum, though price levels remain historically elevated.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Market mover:
A deceleration in core MoM inflation may reflect stabilizing services and wage-driven components. Markets will watch closely for clues on whether the BoE can ease without risking price flare-ups.

✅ Wednesday’s calendar zeroes in on the U.K.'s inflation profile. With both annual and monthly data due, the releases will be pivotal in shaping near-term expectations for GBP and Bank of England policy direction. Traders remain alert for any upside surprises that could shift the tone of upcoming monetary decisions.

The chart below displays 15-minute GBP/JPY action after the U.K. inflation release on September 17, 2025, isolating the news-triggered move to illustrate the pair’s instant reaction, later volatility, and the speed at which sentiment around the GBP changed.

GBPJPY.jpg


U.K. Inflation Data - 17 September, 2025 Release​

UK inflation data in August 2025 underscored persistent price pressures: CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year (unchanged from July) and 0.3% month-on-month, matching August 2024 and marking joint-highs since January 2024’s 4.0%. Despite this, the Bank of England cut the policy rate to 4% while warning medium-term inflation risks had edged higher and forecasting CPI to peak near 4.0% in September, with a likely slowdown in quantitative tightening to ease gilt-market strain. Food prices climbed 0.4% on the month, lifting annual food inflation to 5.1% (fifth straight increase), led by sugar/chocolate (+2.0% m/m; chocolate index +3.2% m/m, +15.4% y/y), while oils/fats and bread/cereals dipped. Clothing rose 1.0% m/m. Transport costs were mixed: small petrol and diesel upticks contrasted with a far smaller rise in airfares than a year earlier—an ONS measurement wrinkle that trimmed CPI by about 0.14 percentage points—while sea fares jumped 6.7% m/m. The cost-of-living gauge RPI eased to 4.6% y/y (RPIX 4.4%), though both rose 0.4% m/m, and house prices reportedly firmed despite higher mortgage rates. In effect, the MPC delivered one cut to 4% and then adopted a cautious stance. With inflation still sticky and projected to edge toward 4% in September, the room for near-term rate cuts narrowed; any additional easing was expected to come from slowing quantitative tightening to ease pressure on gilt yields.”

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, GBP/JPY traded at 199.963

  • At an open price of 199.963, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of 200.00 GBP (272.96 USD).
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to 50.00 GBP (68.24 USD).

Pip Value (GBP/JPY): 5.001 GBP (6.8254 USD) per pip per standard lot.

Entering a long at Point A (199.963) and exiting at Point C (200.355) would have captured 39.2 pips, about 196.04 GBP (267.56 USD) on one standard lot.

Entering a long at Point B (199.479) and exiting at Point C (200.355) would have captured 87.6 pips, about 438.09 GBP (597.91 USD) on one standard lot.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 23, 2025​

📊 Thursday’s calendar spans key economic indicators from four major economies. Canadian retail sales provide insight into consumer strength heading into Q4, while U.S. existing home sales test housing market resilience amid tight credit conditions. Later, Australian flash PMIs offer a glimpse into private sector performance, followed by Japanese inflation readings that may influence monetary expectations.

Preparing in advance for high-impact releases is essential. These events can trigger abrupt volatility, widen spreads, and impact liquidity. Knowing the forecast helps you position smartly, manage risk, and act with confidence when price action accelerates.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CAD, USD, AUD, JPY

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 1.0%
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Retail spending is a key barometer of consumer demand and economic momentum. Strong prints may support expectations for rate stability or tightening by the Bank of Canada.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 4.0%
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
Slower annual growth may hint at softening domestic demand. Traders will watch if momentum is fading or merely normalizing after strong summer spending.

🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 3.9M | Previous: 4.0M
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market insight:
Tight housing inventory and elevated mortgage rates have weighed on resale activity. A further decline may reinforce housing market concerns heading into year-end.

🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Existing Home Sales MoM
Forecast: -2.0% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
Monthly housing shifts can trigger swift sentiment changes. Further contraction may dampen risk appetite and weaken the USD in early trading sessions.

🕒 22:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 51.4
💱 Currency: AUD
💬 Market lens:
Manufacturing momentum remains modest. Traders will assess whether expansion above 50 can be sustained amid global trade headwinds.

🕒 22:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 52.4
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Market insight:
A steady composite index signals resilience in both services and manufacturing. Minor changes may shape short-term AUD positioning.

🕒 22:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.8 | Previous: 52.4
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
As the dominant sector, services performance drives GDP expectations. Slippage below 50 would heighten concern over domestic demand cooling.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: JPY
🎯 Market mover:
A reacceleration in headline CPI may delay any dovish policy tilt by the Bank of Japan. Yen traders will monitor closely.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Market lens:
Core inflation, stripped of food volatility, holds greater weight for BoJ decision-making. Sticky core figures could anchor policy near-term.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Why Traders Care:
Flat monthly price growth would suggest easing pressure on household budgets but may be interpreted as a moderation of inflation momentum.

✅ Thursday’s session offers a cross-regional snapshot of economic health—from Canadian consumer spending and U.S. housing pressures to Australia's private sector activity and Japan’s inflation trends. Traders will watch closely for surprises that could realign expectations around policy direction and currency strength.

Note: Because of the U.S. government shutdown, certain releases are provisional and could shift, be revised, or not publish at all.

The chart below shows USD/CAD on a 5-minute scale after the Canadian Retail Sales release on September 19, 2025, isolating the move sparked by that data to highlight the pair’s immediate reaction and subsequent volatility, and how one release can quickly shift sentiment and the CAD.

USDCAD.jpg


Canada's Retail Sales Release - 19 September 2025​

Canada’s retail sales fell 0.8% in July to $69.6 billion, declining in eight of nine subsectors, with core sales (ex-autos and gasoline) down 1.2% and volumes also off 0.8%. Food and beverage retailers led the pullback (−1.3%), notably supermarkets (−2.5%), while clothing-related stores fell 2.9%; motor vehicle and parts dealers edged up 0.2% and gasoline station sales dipped 0.9% in value (+0.2% in volume). Sales decreased in five provinces, led by Ontario (−1.6%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (−8.8%, amid wildfire activity), while Quebec rose 0.2% (Montréal +0.7%). Seasonally adjusted e-commerce sales climbed 2.2% to $4.3 billion, or 6.1% of total retail trade. An advance estimate suggested August retail sales increased 1.0%, a preliminary figure subject to revision.

USD/CAD fell because markets read the StatCan release as less dovish for the BoC: July retail sales were soft, but the +1.0% advance estimate for August hinted at momentum, prompting CAD buying/USD selling. The move was likely reinforced by broader market flows (e.g., any USD softness, firmer oil, lower U.S. yields) and positioning/technicals that accelerated the drop.

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, USD/CAD traded at 1.38183

  • At an open price of 1.38183, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.
Pip Value (USD/CAD): $7.24 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a short at Point A (1.38183) and closing at Point B (1.37691) would have captured 49.2 pips, equivalent to a $356.21 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 24, 2025​

⚡ Thursday brings a wave of preliminary PMI readings across key economies, offering a timely gauge of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. With inflation data also in focus from the U.S., markets are closely watching whether global demand is holding firm amid lingering policy uncertainty.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: JPY, GBP, EUR, USD

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 48.8 | Previous: 48.5
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Market lens:
The manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with the index still in contraction territory. A reading below 50 signals weak output and dampens JPY sentiment if downside risks to growth persist.

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 53.3
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
Resilient services growth suggests domestic demand is steady. This supports the BoJ’s cautiously optimistic stance and could limit JPY downside.

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.2 | Previous: 51.3
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Quick take:
Overall private sector activity remains in expansion, driven by services. The balance reinforces Japan’s recovery narrative.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.5%
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Market lens:
A dip in retail spending may raise concerns about household resilience. Weakness could dampen GBP as rate expectations adjust lower.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Market mover:
Annual growth remains tepid. Any miss versus expectations may reinforce a dovish BoE outlook, adding pressure to GBP.

🕒 07:30 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 49.0 | Previous: 49.5
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
Germany’s industrial slowdown remains a key drag on Eurozone recovery. A below-50 reading underscores contraction and weighs on EUR.

🕒 08:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.1 | Previous: 50.8
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Market lens:
Service sector resilience is key to cushioning the U.K. economy. Gains above 50 suggest stable activity and could support GBP.

🕒 08:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 50.1
💱 Currency: GBP
🔍 Market insight:
Slight improvement signals tentative growth. Traders will watch how this interacts with softening consumer demand data.

🕒 08:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 46.7 | Previous: 46.2
💱 Currency: GBP
💡 Quick take:
Manufacturing contraction deepens despite mild improvement. BoE may stay cautious as output challenges persist.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.4%
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
Sticky inflation keeps pressure on the Fed. A stronger-than-expected print may revive talk of further tightening.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market insight:
Core remains elevated, reinforcing the idea that services inflation is persistent. A firm reading could lift the USD.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Annual CPI ticking higher may stall Fed pivot hopes. Dollar bulls would welcome an upside surprise.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.1%
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
Core CPI holds steady. No sharp drop means the Fed may remain cautious, keeping USD supported.

🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.1 | Previous: 52.0
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
Stable factory activity keeps recession fears at bay. Another expansionary print supports growth resilience narrative.

🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.3 | Previous: 54.2
💱 Currency: USD
🔑 Fast track:
Solid services growth highlights continued momentum. This may reinforce Fed patience before any policy pivot.

🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 53.9
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Quick take:
Broad-based expansion across sectors reflects underlying strength in the U.S. economy.

✅ Thursday’s data-heavy calendar centers on PMI signals and inflation metrics, giving traders fresh insight into global growth momentum and central bank policy paths. Attention will focus on whether stable services and sticky inflation keep policymakers cautious heading into year-end.

Important Note: Because of the U.S. government shutdown, certain releases are provisional and could shift, be revised, or not publish at all.


The chart below is a display of GBP/USD in five-minute intervals following the U.S. CPI and jobless-claims releases on September 11, 2025, highlighting the news-driven move and subsequent volatility that quickly shifted USD sentiment.

GBPUSD.jpg


U.S. CPI & Jobless Claims — 11 September 2025​

U.S. data painted a mixed backdrop ahead of the Sept. 17 Fed meeting: August CPI rose 0.4% m/m—the largest monthly gain since January—and 2.9% y/y, while core CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, in line with forecasts. Shelter (+0.4%) was the biggest driver, with food (+0.5%) and energy (+0.7%; gasoline +1.9%) also contributing; services ex-energy rose 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y. Producer prices fell 0.1% m/m, and tariff-sensitive goods such as new vehicles (+0.3% m/m) and select home products registered firmer prices, consistent with some pass-through from import duties.

U.S. labor data softened: initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000 for the week ended Sept. 6 (up 27,000 from a revised 236,000 and the highest since Oct. 2021), the 4-week average rose to 240,500, and continuing claims held near late-2021 highs at 1.939 million (insured jobless rate 1.3%; 4-week average 1.9457 million). Markets read the combination as cut-friendly, pricing a certain September rate reduction (to 4.25%–4.50%) and higher odds of additional cuts in October and December; equities rallied as the deterioration in claims outweighed the slightly hotter CPI, with commentary pointing to Chair Powell signaling a sequence of rate cuts.

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, showing how leverage impacted outcomes.

At the time of this release, GBP/USD traded at 1.35214.

  • If entered at the low 1.34958, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $269.92.
  • At the same entry price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $67.48.
Pip value (GBP/USD): $10 per pip per standard lot.

  • Entering a long at Point A (1.34958) and exiting at Point B (1.35828) would have captured 87.0 pips, ≈ $870 on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 27, 2025​

📉 Monday’s session offers a concise but pivotal set of releases, with a focus on business sentiment in Germany and durable goods trends in the U.S. The Ifo survey provides an updated gauge of confidence across the EU’s largest economy, while U.S. manufacturing and order flows could shape expectations for Q4 activity.

Preparing ahead of high-impact releases is essential. These events can sharply move markets, widen spreads, and influence central bank expectations. Tracking forecasts lets you manage risk and adjust positions effectively.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

🕒 09:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 87.0 | Previous: 87.7
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
The Ifo index is a key forward-looking indicator of economic confidence in Germany. A decline may confirm lingering recession risks and weigh on the euro.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Durable Goods Orders MoM
Forecast: -1.2% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
A sharp pullback in durable goods would signal softening capital investment. Markets may interpret this as a headwind to Q4 growth momentum.

🕒 14:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -2.0 | Previous: -8.7
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
An improved reading may point to bottoming sentiment in the regional manufacturing sector. Persistent contraction, however, would deepen concern over U.S. industrial resilience.

✅ Monday’s data is light in volume but rich in macro signals. Traders will closely monitor whether German firms are regaining optimism and if U.S. manufacturers are sustaining investment or showing early signs of slowdown.



The chart below displays EUR/USD in five-minute intervals following the German Ifo Business Climate release on September 24, 2025, capturing the news-driven move and ensuing volatility to illustrate how a single data point can swiftly influence market sentiment and the euro.

EURUSD Ifo.jpg


Ifo Business Climate Release - 24 September 2025​

Germany’s business morale fell to 87.7 in September from a revised 88.9 in August, missing the 89.3 consensus, the Ifo institute reported, as firms turned more downbeat on both current conditions and expectations. Economists cited a weak outlook, sluggish reforms, and earlier Q2 GDP −0.3% q/q as drags; the decline was broad-based except construction. While some see growth only meaningfully picking up next year with fiscal loosening—and even then below consensus—the HCOB flash composite PMI showed activity accelerating to a 16-month high, suggesting the economy was growing again, albeit only weakly.



Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, EUR/USD traded at 1.17874

  • At an open price of 1.17874, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $235.75 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $58.94 USD.

Pip Value (EUR/USD): $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

For instance, a short entered at Point A (1.17874) and closed at Point B (1.17302) would have captured 57.2 pips, yielding a $572 USD profit on one standard lot.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 28, 2025​

📊 Tuesday features forward-looking sentiment indicators from both Germany and the United States, giving markets insight into household confidence and regional manufacturing momentum. These readings help assess broader economic health amid lingering global uncertainty.

Being prepared for high-impact events is crucial, as they can cause sharp price movements and shift policy expectations. Monitoring forecasts allows you to plan entries, reduce exposure, and manage volatility in real time.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence
Forecast: -23 | Previous: -22.3
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
Deteriorating sentiment among German consumers suggests persistent concerns around inflation and purchasing power. A weaker print may pressure EUR and weigh on retail sector outlooks.

🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -10 | Previous: -17
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market insight:
While still in contraction territory, an improvement would hint at stabilizing factory conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. Persistent weakness may dampen broader growth confidence.

✅ Tuesday’s releases provide valuable clues about economic resilience on both sides of the Atlantic. Consumer pessimism in Germany and regional factory strain in the U.S. could influence policy expectations and market direction.

Note: U.S. government data could be affected by the shutdown, with some releases subject to delay, revision, or cancellation
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 29, 2025​


⚡ Wednesday’s session is packed with critical inflation data from Australia and major central bank rate decisions from Canada and the U.S. These releases are expected to significantly influence currency volatility and interest rate expectations heading into the final months of the year.


Preparing ahead of high-impact economic releases is essential. They often trigger sharp intraday moves, affect spreads, and alter trading bias. Viewing forecasts in advance helps manage exposure and plan execution more effectively.


🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, JPY, CAD, USD



🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.1%
💱 Currency: AUD
💬 Market lens:
A sharp rebound in annual inflation could reignite RBA policy tightening discussions. A hotter print may boost AUD on rate hike expectations.


🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Monthly CPI Indicator
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.0%
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
This gauge offers a timelier look at Australian inflation and is closely monitored by markets and the RBA for early trend signals.



🕒 05:00 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 35.5 | Previous: 35.3
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
Confidence remains weak as households face cost pressures and economic uncertainty. Persistent pessimism may weigh on JPY sentiment.



🕒 13:45 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 2.25% | Previous: 2.50%
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation — traders monitor this decision closely for monetary policy direction.



🕒 18:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 4.25%
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
The Fed’s rate call anchors global monetary policy expectations. A shift or dovish language may cause significant dollar repricing.


🕒 18:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Fed Press Conference
💬 Why Traders Care:
It’s a detailed record of the FOMC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.



✅ Wednesday’s lineup is policy-centric, spotlighting rate decisions from the Fed and BoC, alongside pivotal inflation prints from Australia. Traders will focus on whether global central banks maintain tightening paths or signal caution amid growth concerns.


The chart below shows GBP/USD on a 5-minute scale following the Fed Funds Rate release on September 17, 2025, capturing the pair’s immediate reaction, the resulting volatility, and how a single release can swiftly shift sentiment and impact the USD.

GBPUSD Fed.jpg


Fed Interest Rate Decision - 17 September 2025​

At its September 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut policy rates by 25 bps to a target range of 4.00%–4.25%, marking the first reduction of the year and restarting an easing cycle paused since late 2024. The decision reflected a shift in the Fed’s risk assessment, as officials acknowledged that job gains had slowed, unemployment had edged higher, and downside risks to employment had risen. While inflation was still described as “somewhat elevated,” the Committee removed earlier language referring to a “solid” labor market—indicating greater concern about softening conditions.

The vote was 11–1, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger 50 bp cut, highlighting a dovish undercurrent within the Committee. Alongside the decision, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) pointed to two additional rate cuts by year-end and one more in 2026. The median fed funds rate forecast for end-2025 dropped to 3.6%, implying a year-end range around 3.5%–3.75%. Projections showed slightly stronger real GDP growth (+0.1–0.2 ppts), modestly lower unemployment in 2026–2027 (down 0.1 ppt), and upward revisions to core and headline PCE inflation for 2026 (+0.2 ppts).

The Fed signaled it remains data-dependent but is now biased toward further easing. While balance sheet runoff will continue, the removal of prior references to “further firming” in the statement underscores the pivot. Chair Powell emphasized flexibility in future moves, and markets broadly interpreted the meeting as dovish. With policy still above neutral and labor data weakening, the Fed is expected to deliver two more cuts this year—likely in October and December—before moving to a slower quarterly pace in 2026.



Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, GBP/USD traded at 1.36664

  • If entered at the highest point 1.37264, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $274.53.
  • At the same entry price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $68.63.
Pip Value (GBP/USD): $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

For instance, a short entered at Point A (1.37264) and closed at Point B (1.36195) would have captured 106.9 pips, yielding a $1,069 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 31, 2025​

⚡ Friday’s lineup featured inflation reads from Australia and France, factory momentum from China, retail trends in Germany and Switzerland, Euro Area flash inflation, and the Fed’s preferred U.S. inflation gauge alongside Canada’s monthly GDP and the Chicago PMI. Together, these releases offered a clean cross-section of prices, demand, and production across major economies.

Preparing ahead of high-impact releases proved essential, as these events often triggered sharp volatility, widened spreads, and shifted intraday direction within seconds. Reviewing forecasts in advance helped traders plan entries, manage risk, and avoid surprise moves.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR, CHF, USD, CAD

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.4%
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
PPI tracked upstream price pressures. A softer annual pace signaled easing pipeline inflation that historically fed into CPI and rate expectations.

🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – NBS Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.5 | Previous: 49.8
💱 Currency: CNY
💬 Market lens:
The headline PMI captured factory demand and employment. A sub-50 read pointed to contraction risk that often weighed on cyclical sentiment region-wide.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
Retail volumes reflected household demand. A marginal rebound suggested fragile spending momentum.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.8%
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
Annual growth offered a cleaner trend signal. A steady uptick supported the view that consumption stabilized despite prior volatility.

🕒 07:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: CHF
💬 Market lens:
A modest monthly rise hinted at a near-term pickup in consumer activity.

🕒 07:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: CHF
🎯 Market mover:
A deeper annual decline underscored demand headwinds, tempering CHF’s domestic growth backdrop.

🕒 07:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
Sequential PPI deflation indicated subdued cost pressures at the factory gate.

🕒 07:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
A low but rising annual PPI suggested stabilization after prior disinflation.

🕒 07:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: 1.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
Headline CPI stability reinforced a benign price environment relative to ECB targets.

🕒 07:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month (Prelim)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -1.0%
💱 Currency: EUR
🎯 Market mover:
A monthly rebound after a sharp drop pointed to normalizing seasonal effects and energy swings.

🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (Flash)
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
A further easing toward 2% reinforced the disinflation trend that shaped ECB rate-path discussions.

🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month (Flash)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
A firmer monthly print tracked near-term price momentum despite softer annual rates.

🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (Flash)
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.4%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
Core slowed further, signaling cooler underlying pressures excluding energy and food.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why Traders Care:
As the Fed’s preferred gauge, a lower core pace supported the narrative of gradual disinflation.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
A softer monthly increase pointed to cooler near-term price pressure and tempered policy urgency.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – GDP Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: CAD
🎯 Market mover:
Flat output after prior growth suggested a pause in momentum, important for BoC trajectory and CAD sensitivity.

🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Chicago PMI
Forecast: 42.0 | Previous: 40.6
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why Traders Care:
The regional barometer remained in contraction territory; any improvement historically foreshadowed shifts ahead of ISM manufacturing.

✅ Friday’s calendar remained data-dense, spanning prices, retail demand, and factory sentiment. Markets focused on whether China’s sub-50 PMI, Euro Area disinflation, and cooler U.S. core PCE collectively reinforced a softer global inflation pulse while highlighting uneven growth across regions.

Note: The shutdown may disrupt U.S. government data, leading to possible delays, revisions, or cancellations of scheduled releases.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 3, 2025​

⚡ Monday opened the new trading week with key household and construction data from Australia, fresh factory readings from China, inflation prints from Switzerland, and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. Together, these indicators provided early insight into global consumption trends, industrial momentum, and underlying price pressures as markets entered November.

Monitoring such releases remained crucial for managing risk and gauging market direction, as PMI and inflation data often triggered volatility across currencies tied to growth and policy expectations.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, CHF, USD

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Household Spending Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.9% | Previous: 5.0%
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Stronger spending growth signaled resilient consumer demand despite tightening conditions. A steady pickup reinforced confidence in domestic activity.

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Building Permits Month-on-Month (Prelim)
Forecast: 6.5% | Previous: -6.0%
💱 Currency: AUD
💬 Market lens:
A sharp rebound in approvals suggested renewed construction momentum after prior weakness, supporting outlooks for housing and employment.

🕒 01:45 GMT
🇨🇳 China – RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 50.8 | Previous: 51.2
💱 Currency: CNY
🎯 Market mover:
A slight dip from prior strength still kept activity in expansion territory. Stability above 50 indicated sustained output despite moderation in new orders.

🕒 07:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: CHF
💡 Why Traders Care:
Flat annual inflation underscored a persistently low-price environment, keeping policy conditions accommodative and CHF movement subdued.

🕒 07:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: CHF
💬 Market lens:
A smaller monthly decline hinted at stabilization in price dynamics after months of softening consumer costs.

🕒 15:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.9 | Previous: 49.1
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market insight:
A rise toward the 50 threshold signaled an approaching turnaround in U.S. manufacturing. Any move above that level would mark renewed sector expansion.

✅ Monday’s data emphasized consumer and factory resilience despite lingering global headwinds. Traders watched whether Australia’s spending and permits rebound, China’s stable PMI, and the U.S. manufacturing uptick collectively hinted at a modest recovery phase in early November.

The chart below displays USD/CHF on a 15-minute scale following the Swiss inflation release on October 2, 2025, highlighting the pair’s initial reaction and subsequent volatility. It illustrates how a single data point can rapidly shift market sentiment and impact the Swiss franc.

USDCHF.jpg



Switzerland’s Inflation Rate Release - 2 October, 2025​

In September 2025, Swiss inflation remained markedly subdued, as consumer prices declined by 0.2% month-over-month and rose just 0.2% year-over-year—well below the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target range. Core inflation registered 0.7%, while the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed no annual increase, highlighting persistent disinflationary pressures. The decline was broad-based, led by lower prices in travel, accommodation, and transportation services, reflecting weak domestic demand. Against this backdrop, and amid a weakening growth outlook, the data reinforced expectations of further policy easing. With the policy rate already at zero, markets anticipated that the SNB might consider renewed rate cuts into negative territory or expand foreign exchange interventions to curb excessive Swiss franc appreciation. In this context, rate hikes were viewed as unlikely, while the probability of additional monetary accommodation had increased.

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, USD/CHF traded at 0.79698

  • If you entered at price of 0.79511, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.

Pip Value (USD/CHF): $12.57703433530374 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a short at Point A (0.79511) and closing at Point B (0.80000) would have captured 48.9 pips, equivalent to a $615.16 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 4, 2025​

⚡ Tuesday centered on monetary policy from Australia and labor conditions from New Zealand. The RBA’s cash-rate setting and the NZ unemployment print together shaped views on growth, inflation, and policy paths across Oceania.

Staying ahead of such releases remained crucial, as rate decisions and labor data often sparked swift moves, widened spreads, and altered intraday direction.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, NZD
🕒 03:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.6%
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
The cash-rate decision and statement tone set short-term rate expectations and guided AUD volatility. Policy continuity or surprise shifts historically steered yields, swaps, and currency direction.
🕒 21:45 GMT
🇳🇿 New Zealand – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 5.2%
💱 Currency: NZD
💬 Market lens:
The jobless rate served as a direct read on slack in the economy. Any rise signaled cooler labor demand and eased pressure on wages, while stability supported consumption resilience.
✅ Tuesday’s calendar stayed concise but high-impact, with the RBA’s stance and New Zealand’s labor snapshot shaping near-term AUD/NZD sentiment and policy expectations.

The chart below displays AUD/USD on a 15-minute scale following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision on September 30, 2025, capturing the pair’s immediate reaction and the volatility that followed. It highlights how a single policy release can swiftly alter market sentiment and impact the Australian dollar.
AUDUSD Interest Rate RBA.jpg

​


RBA Interest Rate Decision - 30 September 2025 Release
On 30 September 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, citing persistent inflation risks, a resilient labour market, and stronger-than-expected domestic activity. While inflation had declined since its 2022 peak and remained within the 2–3% target band, recent data—particularly in housing and market services—suggested upward pressure could persist. Private demand, household consumption, and housing activity were recovering, supported by rising real incomes and easing financial conditions. Employment growth had slowed but remained steady, and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. The Board acknowledged uncertainties in both global and domestic conditions, including the lagging impact of earlier rate cuts and the risk of renewed inflation if consumption and business pricing power strengthened. It emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, with no pre-commitment to further easing.

In her post-meeting press conference, Governor Michele Bullock reinforced the RBA’s cautious stance, noting that monetary policy was working as expected but the full effects of earlier cuts were still unfolding. She highlighted that real income gains, wealth effects from rising asset prices, and easing financial conditions were contributing to a lift in consumption. While some upside inflation surprises had emerged, particularly in market services, the RBA remained focused on overall inflation and employment dynamics rather than reacting to month-to-month volatility. Bullock stressed that rate decisions would continue to rely on evolving data, especially as the RBA awaits full monthly CPI reporting beginning in November. Ultimately, the Board maintained a balanced view: while further rate cuts remain possible, a prolonged hold or slower pace of easing may be warranted if inflation proves stickier or demand accelerates more than anticipated. The RBA’s priority remains to keep inflation low and stable while supporting full employment, and it stands ready to act as needed in response to incoming economic conditions.

​

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, AUD/USD traded at 0.65844

  • Entering a long position at 0.65752 with 1 standard lot and 1:500 leverage would require a margin of $131.50 USD.
  • Under the same entry price and lot size, using 1:2000 leverage would reduce the required margin to $32.88 USD.

Pip Value (AUD/USD): $10 USD per pip per standard lot.


For example, entering a long at Point A (0.65752) and closing at Point B (0.66283) would have captured 53.1 pips, equivalent to a $531 USD profit on one standard lot.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 5, 2025​

⚡ Wednesday featured European factory and price data alongside key U.S. labor and services prints. Germany’s orders and France’s output gauged industrial momentum, Euro Area PPI tracked pipeline inflation, and the ADP report with ISM Services offered an early read on U.S. employment and demand.

Staying ahead of these releases remained crucial, as surprises in orders, production, and services activity often moved EUR- and USD-pairs within seconds.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: EUR, USD
🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Factory Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: -0.8%
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
New orders served as a forward signal for production. A rebound after prior weakness suggested tentative stabilization in Germany’s industrial pipeline.
🕒 07:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.7%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
A positive print indicated recovering output across key manufacturing segments, supporting the case for an early-quarter activity pickup.
🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.6%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
A smaller annual decline pointed to easing disinflation at the factory gate, shaping expectations for the ECB’s policy path.
🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
🎯 Market mover:
Another negative monthly reading reinforced subdued upstream price pressure despite volatility in energy components.
🕒 13:15 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – ADP Employment Change
Forecast: 20K | Previous: -32K
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Though noisy versus NFP, ADP provided a timely snapshot of private hiring. A modest gain hinted at cautious labor demand.
🕒 15:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 50.8 | Previous: 50.0
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
A move further above 50 suggested improving services activity—critical given the sector’s outsized share of U.S. GDP and employment.
✅ Wednesday’s calendar balanced European industrial signals with U.S. labor and services momentum. Markets focused on whether a rebound in German orders, firmer French output, and steadier ISM Services offset still-soft Euro Area producer prices.

The chart below displays GBP/USD on a 5-minute timeframe following the U.S. ADP Employment Change release on October 1, 2025, capturing the initial reaction and ensuing volatility to illustrate how a single data point can swiftly influence market sentiment and the U.S. dollar’s direction.

​

GBPUSD.jpg

​

ADP Employment Change - 1 October 2025​

ADP said U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, signaling cautious hiring despite earlier economic strength. A preliminary rebenchmarking cut September’s tally by 43,000 versus pre-benchmarked data and revised August from +54,000 to −3,000. Sector detail showed goods-producing −3k and services −28k, with gains in education/health +33k offset by declines in leisure/hospitality −19k, professional/business services −13k, and financial activities −9k. Regionally, the Midwest −63k led losses, while the Northeast +21k, West +15k, and South +3k saw modest gains. By firm size, small −40k and medium −20k fell, while large +33k rose. Pay growth stayed firm: job-stayers +4.5% YoY and job-changers +6.6%, with ADP noting employers remain cautious.

U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh month in September, with the ISM index at 49.1 and new orders falling to 48.9. Despite ongoing weakness in employment, production rose to 51.0 and input prices eased, signaling modest resilience. GBP/USD turned bearish as the stronger-than-expected ISM data eased recession fears and supported the U.S. dollar.

​

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, GBP/USD traded at 1.34728
  • At an open price of 1.34728, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $269.46 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $67.36 USD.

Pip Value (GBP/USD): $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a long at Point A (1.34728) and closing at Point B (1.35273) would have captured 54.5 pips, equivalent to a $545 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 6, 2025​


⚡ Thursday mixed trade, production, retail, and policy signals across Asia, Europe, and North America. Australia’s trade balance, Germany’s factory output, Euro Area retail sales, the BoE rate call, Canada’s Ivey PMI, and Japan’s household spending together offered a broad read on demand, activity, and policy stances.

Staying ahead of these releases remained crucial, as surprises around trade, retail, and central-bank decisions often moved FX pairs and yields within seconds.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, CHF, GBP, CAD, JPY

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$4.0 B | Previous: A$1.825 B
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
A wider surplus pointed to firm commodity exports and positive net trade support for growth, a constructive backdrop for AUD on strong prints.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: -4.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
A rebound after a sharp drop signaled tentative stabilization in manufacturing and construction, key for the Eurozone’s growth engine.

🕒 08:00 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
💱 Currency: CHF
🔍 Market insight:
Stable joblessness underscored tight labor conditions and low domestic slack, typically a calm input for CHF unless deviating from consensus.

🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.0%
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Why Traders Care:
A firmer annual pace suggested gradual recovery in household demand despite higher rates.

🕒 10:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: EUR
🎯 Market mover:
Another positive monthly print reinforced a slow but steady improvement in near-term spending momentum.

🕒 12:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – BoE Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 4.0%
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Market lens:
Rate status and statement tone guided gilt yields and GBP; a steady hold with nuanced guidance typically drove the bigger market reaction.

🕒 15:00 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Ivey PMI (SA)
Forecast: 55.0 | Previous: 59.8
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why Traders Care:
A moderation from elevated levels still pointed to expanding activity (>50), informing views on demand, hiring, and price pressures.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Household Spending Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.3%
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Market lens:
A pickup in real spending hinted at improving consumption dynamics, a key ingredient for Japan’s broader reflation narrative.

✅ Thursday’s calendar balanced Asia’s trade and consumption reads with Europe’s output and retail prints and a key BoE decision. Markets weighed a stronger German rebound and steadier Euro Area retail against policy signals from the BoE and growth cues from Canada’s PMI and Japan’s households.

This 5-minute GBP/USD chart captures the immediate reaction and subsequent volatility after the BoE’s September 18, 2025 rate decision, highlighting how a single release can rapidly shift sentiment and direction in sterling.

GBPUSD.jpg


BoE Interest Rate Decision - 18 September 2025​

BoE held Bank Rate at 4.00% with a 7–2 split (Dhingra/Taylor voting for a cut) and slowed the pace of quantitative tightening to £70bn a year from £100bn. That means the Bank will allow fewer gilts to roll off and conduct fewer active sales—an adjustment that reflects caution as reserves approach equilibrium and gilt markets remain sensitive to global term-premium moves. Policymakers repeated that any further easing will be ‘gradual and careful’, while stressing that medium-term inflation risks—especially wage-driven services inflation—remain elevated.

With only one CPI print, one labour report, and limited GDP data before the 6 Nov meeting, plus the late-Nov Budget adding uncertainty, a November cut looks unlikely. Markets still lean toward one 25bp cut by year-end but price only modest odds, leaving real risk easing shifts into early 2026 if wage disinflation stalls. Net takeaway: bias is cautiously dovish, but timing is data-dependent and fragile.

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, GBP/USD traded at 1.36494

  • Entering at an open price of 1.36606 with a 1-standard-lot position at 1:500 leverage required a margin of $273.21 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $68.30 USD.
Pip Value (GBP/USD): $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

  • Short from Point A (1.36494) → Point C (1.35340): +115.4 pips ≈ +$1,154 USD
  • Short from Point B (1.36606) → Point C (1.35340): +126.6 pips ≈ +$1,266 USD

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 7, 2025​

⚡ Friday’s calendar featured major trade data from China and Germany, a full Canadian labor report, and preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment. The releases together painted a global picture of trade balances, employment trends, and household confidence at the close of the trading week.

Such cross-regional data often fueled volatility across currencies, as shifts in exports, jobs, and sentiment guided expectations for growth and central-bank outlooks.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CNY, EUR, CAD, USD

🕒 03:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Exports Year-on-Year
Forecast: 7.3% | Previous: 8.3%
💱 Currency: CNY
💡 Why Traders Care:
Export growth signaled sustained external demand. A slower pace still indicated resilience amid global supply pressures and shifting trade patterns.

🕒 03:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Balance of Trade
Forecast: $97 B | Previous: $90.45 B
💱 Currency: CNY
💬 Market lens:
A wider surplus highlighted continued export strength relative to imports, supporting CNY stability through stronger trade inflows.

🕒 03:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Imports Year-on-Year
Forecast: 7.0% | Previous: 7.4%
💱 Currency: CNY
🎯 Market mover:
Slightly softer import growth pointed to moderated domestic demand but still reflected steady consumption and industrial activity.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Balance of Trade
Forecast: €15.6 B | Previous: €17.2 B
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
A smaller surplus hinted at softer external momentum. Shifts in energy costs and exports to the U.S. and China continued to shape Germany’s trade balance.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: -80 K | Previous: 106.1 K
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Full-time job losses suggested a cooling labor market, often seen as an early signal of slower household spending and wage momentum.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Employment Change
Forecast: 5 K | Previous: 60.4 K
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
A modest gain after prior strength showed limited hiring appetite as businesses adjusted to higher borrowing costs.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 7.2% | Previous: 7.1%
💱 Currency: CAD
🎯 Market mover:
A slight rise in unemployment reinforced signs of labor softening, aligning with the Bank of Canada’s cooling objectives.

🕒 15:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 53.6
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why Traders Care:
Stable sentiment near multi-month lows reflected cautious consumer outlooks on income and inflation, key to assessing future spending patterns.

✅ Friday’s calendar captured slowing but resilient trade flows, cooler Canadian employment, and cautious U.S. sentiment. Markets weighed these signals as evidence of a broadly steady but uneven global growth trajectory heading into mid-November.


This 5-minute USD/CAD chart captures the immediate reaction and subsequent volatility following Canada’s Labour Market Report on October 10, 2025, highlighting how a single data release can rapidly shift sentiment and direction in the CAD.

USDCAD.jpg


Canada’s Labour Data - 10 October 2025​

Canada added 60,400 jobs in September 2025, far surpassing expectations for a modest decline, though the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1%. The surprise gain followed significant job losses in July and August, leaving the broader labor market trend subdued, with only 22,000 jobs added year-to-date and continued signs of slack. Full-time employment surged (+106,000), driven largely by public sector and core-aged workers, while part-time jobs declined and youth unemployment rose to 14.7%, the highest since 2010 outside the pandemic. Despite strong hiring in manufacturing, health care, and agriculture, economists caution that the rebound may be temporary and not a sign of sustained recovery. The report complicates expectations for a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut, particularly if upcoming inflation data exceeds forecasts, though persistent labor market slack may still justify easing in the months ahead.

Canada’s stronger-than-expected job gains in September briefly supported the CAD, but persistent labor market slack and a steady 7.1% unemployment rate limited the upside. While the data may delay a rate cut, it didn’t remove the possibility—making the overall impact neutral to slightly bearish for the Canadian dollar. Later, a U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment release added mild USD support, helping USD/CAD stabilize and partially rebound.



Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, USD/CAD traded at 1.40123

  • At an open price of 1.40123, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.
Pip Value (USD/CAD): $7.136739937196689 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a short position at Point A (1.40123) and closing at Point B (1.39761) would have captured 36.2 pips, equivalent to a $258.35 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 9, 2025​

⚡ Sunday’s calendar opened the week with China’s latest inflation readings, offering a key snapshot of consumer and producer price trends. Together, the CPI and PPI results provided valuable insight into domestic demand strength and cost pressures within the world’s second-largest economy.

Inflation data are closely watched as early indicators of monetary direction and commodity demand, often influencing CNY and broader risk sentiment across Asia.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CNY
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.3%
💱 Currency: CNY
💡 Why Traders Care:
A return toward zero inflation suggested tentative stabilization in consumer prices, hinting that deflationary pressures were easing.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.9% | Previous: -2.3%
💱 Currency: CNY
💬 Market lens:
A smaller annual decline in factory prices reflected gradual improvement in industrial margins and input cost recovery.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: CNY
🎯 Market mover:
A slight monthly dip underlined weak short-term demand but signaled limited deflation risk if consumer and energy prices stabilized ahead.
✅ Sunday’s early Chinese inflation data highlighted easing producer declines and a near-flat CPI, reinforcing signs that price dynamics were stabilizing after months of softness in Asia’s largest economy.

This 5-minute USD/CNH chart illustrates the sharp reaction and ensuing volatility following China’s inflation data release on October 15, 2025, underscoring how a single economic report can swiftly influence market sentiment and direction in the yuan.

​

USDCNH.jpg

​

China’s Inflation data - 15 October 2025​

In September 2025, China’s consumer prices dropped by 0.3% year-over-year, exceeding expectations and reinforcing ongoing deflation concerns, despite a modest 0.1% monthly rise. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose by 1%, marking its strongest gain since February 2024 and offering a limited sign of resilience. However, persistent producer price deflation—down 2.3% annually, though easing for a second month—highlights deep-rooted structural challenges including sluggish domestic consumption, intense industrial overcapacity, and prolonged weakness in the property and labor markets. Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., have added to the strain, with U.S.-bound exports falling sharply and the threat of 100% tariffs casting further uncertainty. While industrial profits improved in August, analysts warn that price stability remains fragile, and without a meaningful recovery in consumer confidence or housing, deflationary pressures are likely to persist.

Despite weak inflation data that would typically pressure the yuan, USDCNH moved lower as the PBOC set the yuan fixing significantly stronger than expected. This official midpoint signaled Beijing’s commitment to stabilizing the currency, leading traders to sell USD against CNH despite ongoing deflationary pressures.

​

Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, USD/CNH traded at 7.14136
  • At an open price of 7.14136, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.

Pip Value (USD/CNH): $1.400305266548107 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a short at Point A (7.14136) and closing at Point B (7.12461) would have captured 167.5 pips, equivalent to a $234.55 USD profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
Last edited:

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 10, 2025​

⚡ Monday concluded the data cycle with Australia’s November consumer confidence update from Westpac. The reading provided a timely gauge of household sentiment and spending appetite heading into the year’s final quarter.

Consumer confidence figures often influence expectations for retail activity, savings behavior, and near-term AUD volatility, especially when they diverge sharply from forecasts.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: -3.5%
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why Traders Care:
A rebound in confidence suggested improving household outlooks on finances and economic conditions. Sustained optimism typically supports consumption and broader economic resilience.

✅ Monday’s single release signalled a potential recovery in Australian sentiment after recent declines, offering early signs of stabilizing consumer confidence as year-end spending approached.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – November 16–21, 2025​

⚡ The late-November stretch featured a dense mix of growth, inflation, central bank and survey data. Japan’s GDP and trade figures updated the outlook for its export-driven economy, Canada and the UK delivered key CPI and retail data, while the RBA and Fed minutes added policy colour. PMIs and housing numbers from the U.S., Europe and Australia rounded out the picture for global demand.

Staying on top of these releases remained critical, as surprises in GDP, inflation and business surveys moved JPY, USD, CAD, GBP, AUD and EUR pairs within seconds.

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: JPY, USD, CAD, GBP, AUD, EUR

🕒 23:50 GMT – Nov 16​

🇯🇵 Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: -0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Why traders care:
A swing from positive to negative quarterly growth signalled a loss of momentum in Japan’s industrial and export engine, sharpening focus on whether weak domestic demand and patchy services activity had started to drag on the broader economy and on the yen.

🕒 13:30 GMT – Nov 17​

🇺🇸 United States – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 7 | Previous: 10.7
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
A still-positive but softer reading pointed to cooling factory activity in New York State, hinting that orders, hiring and investment intentions in a key regional hub had moderated after earlier strength.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: CAD
🎯 Market mover:
A stronger monthly rise in headline prices would have underlined sticky near-term inflation pressure, feeding expectations that the Bank of Canada might stay cautious about cutting rates too quickly.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
💱 Currency: CAD
🔍 Market insight:
Stable core inflation around the BoC’s target band suggested underlying price dynamics remained contained even as volatile items moved around, keeping attention on how long policy needed to stay restrictive.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.4%
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why traders care:
An unchanged headline rate near the mid-2% area signalled that broader price pressures had neither re-accelerated nor faded sharply, preserving a “wait-and-see” backdrop for CAD around key central bank meetings.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
A quicker monthly core gain highlighted firmer underlying price momentum, reinforcing the idea that services and shelter costs still exerted upward pressure even as energy and food components fluctuated.

🕒 00:30 GMT – Nov 18​

🇦🇺 Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Why traders care:
The minutes offered detail on how close the Board had been to further tightening or an extended pause, giving traders clues on the RBA’s inflation tolerance, labour-market assessment and the likely path of the cash rate.

🕒 14:15 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
A potential dip after a small prior gain suggested factory and utility output had flattened out, testing the narrative of U.S. manufacturing resilience and feeding into growth tracking models watched by dollar traders.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -¥150B | Previous: -¥234.6B
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
A narrower deficit would have indicated that exports and imports were rebalancing after prior pandemic-era disruptions and energy-price shocks, with the weak yen simultaneously supporting outbound shipments and raising import costs.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Exports Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 4.2%
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Why traders care:
Export growth remained a key gauge of external demand for Japan’s autos, machinery and electronics; any slowdown from the prior pace raised questions about global tech and capex cycles, while a stronger print supported the yen via better trade fundamentals.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Imports Year-on-Year
Forecast: N/A | Previous: 3.3%
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Market lens:
Import growth helped traders infer domestic demand and energy-price impacts; weaker import values suggested softer internal consumption or lower commodity prices, while stronger readings pointed to firmer domestic activity and cost pressure.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Machinery Orders Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.6%
💱 Currency: JPY
🎯 Market mover:
A modest pickup in annual core machinery orders signalled gradually improving capital-spending intentions, hinting that Japanese firms were still willing to invest despite external uncertainty.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Machinery Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.9%
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Why traders care:
A rebound into positive territory after a prior drop suggested the near-term investment pipeline had stabilised, providing a supportive signal for future production and, indirectly, for JPY sentiment.

🕒 07:00 GMT – Nov 19​

🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.5%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔍 Market insight:
A slight easing in core inflation still left underlying prices well above the BoE’s target, keeping the focus on how long policy would need to remain tight and how quickly demand might cool.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Market lens:
A stronger monthly print underlined renewed near-term price pressure after a flat prior reading, reinforcing the idea that disinflation was not yet linear and that GBP remained sensitive to CPI surprises.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: GBP
💡 Why traders cared:
A small core uptick hinted that services and other less volatile components were still pushing prices higher, offering a cleaner read on underlying inflation than the headline figure alone.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.8%
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Market mover:
A marginal step down in headline CPI kept progress toward target on track but underscored that price growth remained elevated, leaving GBP driven by how quickly markets believed the BoE could pivot.

🕒 19:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – FOMC Minutes
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why traders care:
The minutes revealed how divided or unified policymakers had been on future rate paths, with any hint of concern about growth or sticky inflation reshaping expectations for cuts and driving repricing in USD and Treasuries.

🕒 07:00 GMT – Nov 20​

🇩🇪 Germany – PPI Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
A return to positive producer prices suggested input-cost pressure had picked up again, feeding into future CPI projections and the debate around how quickly euro-area disinflation might proceed.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – PPI Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.6% | Previous: -1.7%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market insight:
A still-negative but slightly less deflationary annual print signalled that the intense goods-price correction was easing, with traders watching for any turn that might eventually re-ignite inflation at the consumer level.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 7 | Previous: -12.8
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
A move from deep contraction into positive territory would have marked a sharp sentiment turnaround among mid-Atlantic manufacturers, supporting the case for a stabilising U.S. industrial sector.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – PPI Year-on-Year
Forecast: 6.0% | Previous: 5.5%
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Why traders cared:
Faster producer-price growth indicated renewed cost pressure at the factory gate, raising questions about how much of this would be passed on to consumers and how the BoC might respond.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – PPI Month-on-Month
Forecast: 1.7% | Previous: 0.8%
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
A strong monthly PPI gain signalled a notable jump in input and output prices within manufacturing, reinforcing the idea that disinflation further down the pipeline could stall.

🕒 15:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 4.2M | Previous: 4.06M
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market insight:
A modest rise in annualised sales volumes pointed to some stabilisation in the housing market despite higher borrowing costs, with implications for household wealth, consumption and broader growth.

🕒 15:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Existing Home Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 1.5%
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why traders cared:
A stronger monthly increase would have suggested demand was recovering more quickly than before, prompting traders to reassess the drag from housing on the U.S. economy and the dollar.

🕒 22:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.9 | Previous: 52.5
💱 Currency: AUD
💬 Market lens:
A higher reading above 50 indicated expanding services activity, reinforcing the idea that domestic demand in Australia remained resilient and supportive for AUD.

🕒 22:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.2 | Previous: 49.7
💱 Currency: AUD
🎯 Market mover:
A move back above the 50 line pointed to a tentative return to manufacturing expansion, hinting that new orders and output had improved after prior softness.

🕒 22:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 52.1
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Market insight:
A firmer composite index showed that combined manufacturing and services activity had strengthened, supporting the case for a broadly healthy private-sector backdrop.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Why traders cared:
An uptick in headline inflation above 3% kept attention on how far the BoJ could move away from ultra-easy policy, with higher CPI readings tending to support expectations of further normalisation.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Market lens:
Slightly higher core inflation excluding fresh food underlined persistent underlying price pressure, strengthening the case that Japan had moved away from its long-standing low-inflation regime.

🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
A small monthly decline after a prior rise highlighted how seasonal factors and energy prices were still influencing the short-term CPI path, even as the broader inflation trend stayed elevated.

🕒 00:30 GMT – Nov 21​

🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.6 | Previous: 51.5
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Why traders care:
A softer composite reading edging closer to 50 suggested that overall private-sector growth was losing some pace, keeping an eye on whether Japan’s post-pandemic recovery was plateauing.

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 49.0 | Previous: 48.2
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Market lens:
An improvement that still left the index below 50 indicated manufacturing contracted more mildly, hinting at gradual stabilisation but not yet a full return to expansion.

🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 53.1
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
A slightly lower but still solid services reading confirmed that domestic service activity continued to support growth, offsetting some industrial softness.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.6% | Previous: 1.5%
💱 Currency: GBP
💡 Why traders cared:
Steady annual growth in retail sales indicated consumer spending held up despite higher living costs, a key input for GDP tracking and BoE policy expectations.

🕒 07:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0.5%
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Market mover:
A forecast pullback after a strong prior month suggested payback from earlier demand, with any upside surprise typically supportive for GBP via stronger growth sentiment.

🕒 08:30 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 49.6
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market lens:
A climb above 50 would have signalled that German manufacturing finally returned to expansion after a prolonged downturn, improving the outlook for the euro area’s industrial core.

🕒 09:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.5 | Previous: 52.3
💱 Currency: GBP
🔍 Market insight:
A marginally stronger services index confirmed steady growth in the UK’s dominant sector, helping offset manufacturing volatility and supporting GBP on signs of ongoing activity.

🕒 09:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.6 | Previous: 52.2
💱 Currency: GBP
💡 Why traders care:
A firmer composite PMI signalled healthier overall private-sector momentum, feeding into expectations for how quickly the BoE might be able to ease without reigniting inflation.

🕒 09:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.6 | Previous: 49.7
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Market mover:
A move back above 50 hinted that UK factories were transitioning from contraction to mild expansion, a supportive signal for growth-sensitive sterling crosses.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales Month-on-Month Prel
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 1.0%
💱 Currency: CAD
💬 Market lens:
The preliminary estimate gave an early steer on consumer demand; a decent gain suggested households continued to spend despite higher rates, a key support for Canada’s growth outlook.

🕒 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 4.9%
💱 Currency: CAD
🔍 Market insight:
A slower annual pace implied that real spending was increasingly squeezed, raising questions about how long consumers could sustain growth under tighter financial conditions.

🕒 14:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 54.8
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why traders care:
A still-robust but slightly lower services reading pointed to solid activity in the largest slice of the U.S. economy, keeping the “soft-landing” narrative in play while hinting at gradual cooling.

🕒 14:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.8 | Previous: 54.6
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market lens:
A small step down in composite output suggested growth remained comfortably in expansion territory, but at a slower clip, influencing how aggressively markets priced future Fed easing.

🕒 14:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 52.5
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market mover:
A modestly softer yet expansionary manufacturing PMI signalled that output and new orders were still growing, but with less momentum, tempering overly bullish views on U.S. industrial strength.

✅ Across November 16–21, the calendar blended Japan’s growth and trade signals, North American and UK inflation and retail data, and a heavy slate of PMIs and central bank minutes. Markets focused on whether firmer services and pockets of manufacturing recovery could offset lingering disinflation in producer prices and evidence of consumers gradually cooling under higher rates.


The following high-impact chart shows how market movement reacts when key economic data is released and volatility increases.


This 5-minute GBP/USD chart shows how sterling reacted in real time to the UK’s October 22, 2025 inflation report, illustrating how a single data release can instantly reshape momentum and short-term direction.

GBPUSD Inflation.jpg




Profit Study​

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, GBP/USD traded at 1.33813

  • At an open price of 1.33813, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $267.63 USD.
  • At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $66.91 USD.
Pip Value (GBP/USD): $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering a long at Opening Point (1.33813) and closing at Lowest Point (1.33056) would have captured 75.7 pips, equivalent to a $757 USD profit on one standard lot.

This example showed how a single high-impact release turned a modest price move into a sizeable dollar outcome once leverage and lot size were applied. It also underscored how quickly losses could grow without clear risk management.
 
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