Currency Pairs Market Analysis

France's Manufacturing Sector Faces Continued Challenges in 2023

In November 2023, the French manufacturing sector faced its tenth straight month of downturn, indicating persistent challenges in the industry. According to the S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI, the index saw a slight increase to 42.9, a marginal improvement from the preliminary estimate of 42.6 and a small step up from 42.8 recorded in the previous month. Despite this slight uptick, the situation remains concerning as this represents the most significant contraction since May 2020.


Factors Behind the Contraction

This continued decline can be attributed to a notable drop in demand. The new orders that factories received kept falling, mostly due to overall weaker market conditions. As a consequence, manufacturing output saw its sharpest decline since May 2020. This decline in production and orders has led to various repercussions within the manufacturing sector. Factories have been reducing their workforce, cutting down on purchasing activities, and experiencing significant drops in their stock of inputs, the largest since May 2020.


Price Trends and Future Outlook

On a somewhat positive note, the rate of input price inflation has stabilized, following a six-month trend of decreasing prices. However, looking forward, the mood among manufacturers remains overwhelmingly gloomy. With expectations of reduced orders, especially from the automotive and construction sectors, there's a strong sense of pessimism for the year ahead.


Economic Implications

The prolonged contraction in France's manufacturing sector is a concern for the economy. A healthy manufacturing sector is often a sign of a robust economy, as it creates jobs, stimulates trade, and contributes to GDP growth. The current downturn could lead to job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a slowdown in economic growth. However, the stabilization in input prices may provide some relief to manufacturers, potentially easing cost pressures.​
 
USDCAD Downtrend Continues, Fibonacci Levels in Focus

The downward trend of USDCAD has reached 1.352, which pushed the Stochastic oscillator into the oversold zone. At the same time, the RSI indicator is also approaching the oversold level, which suggests that the pair may enter a consolidation phase in the next week.

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In this case, the pair may face the %38.2 level of the fibonacci as a resistance. This level could attract more sellers to put more pressure on the pair and extend the downtrend to the %50 level Fibo and then the %61.8 level.​
 
Spain's Tourism Bounces Back to Pre-Pandemic Heights

In October 2023, Spain saw a significant surge in foreign tourist arrivals, marking a 13.9% increase compared to the previous year, with a total of 8.2 million visitors. This figure not only surpasses last year's statistics but also shows a 7.8% growth from the pre-pandemic levels of October 2019, highlighting a robust recovery in the tourism sector.

The majority of these tourists came from the United Kingdom, accounting for 1.7 million visitors (12.2% increase), followed by Germany with 1.1 million visitors (8% increase), and France with 990,000 visitors (9% increase). Additionally, there was a significant rise in visitors from the United States (25.7% increase), the Netherlands (19.6% increase), and Ireland (15.1% increase), indicating a growing global interest in Spanish destinations.

Catalonia emerged as the most popular region, attracting 20.4% of the total tourists. Reflecting on the first nine months of 2023, Spain welcomed 74.7 million international visitors, which is 18.2% more than in 2022 and marginally higher (0.2%) than the pre-pandemic figures of 2019. These numbers signify a strong recovery and a positive outlook for Spain's tourism industry, re-establishing its position as a top global destination.​
 
EURUSD at a Crossroads: Resistance Clash and Trend Predictions

The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical point, the 23.6% resistance level, which interestingly aligns with the Ichimoku cloud. Currently, the technical indicators are hinting at a potential sell-off. If the price manages to remain under the cloud, there's a strong chance we'll see a further downward trend, potentially reaching the 38.2% level, and maybe even the 50% mark.

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However, there's another side to consider. Should the EURUSD pair successfully break through the 23.6% resistance and maintain its position above this level, it would suggest a shift in momentum. In such a scenario, the current bearish outlook would no longer be valid, indicating a possible change in trend.​
 
Latest on GBPUSD: Bullish Flag & Ichimoku Insights

The GBPUSD currency pair is trading inside the bullish flag and above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish trend. However, the ADX indicator is approaching the 20 level, which suggests that the trend is weakening, and the pair is losing momentum. We expect the value of GBPUSD to rise again and target the upper band of the bullish flag, which is a continuation pattern of the previous uptrend.

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On the other hand, the bullish scenario would be invalidated if the GBPUSD price falls below the cloud, which would signal a bearish reversal.​
 
EURJPY Dips Below Key Level: A Closer Look

We've noticed a significant drop. Recently, it slipped under the important support mark of 159.37.

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Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it's clear that there's a downward trend in momentum. This hints that we might see this decline continue. We're expecting the pair to keep dropping, possibly reaching the next support point at 158.32. Interestingly, this level is right where the lower edge of the bearish flag pattern lies. This pattern often signals that the current downward trend could keep going.​
 
USDJPY's Bullish Stance Meets Resistance

Currently, the USDJPY pair is positioned within a bullish flag formation. Yet, there's been a notable change - the price has fallen below the Ichimoku cloud, hinting at a potential shift in the market's direction. As of now, the pair is undergoing a test at the lower boundary of this flag, and the ADX indicator is suggesting that we may see significant fluctuations ahead.

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If the price drops past this crucial point, it's likely we'll see a further slide down to the 144.5 support level. This would be a key movement to watch for.

On the other hand, if the bulls succeed in keeping the price stable above 146.2, it could signal a continuation of the upward trend. In such a scenario, the pair might target the 23.6% mark on the Fibonacci retracement scale, possibly even stretching to the 38.2% level.​
 
AUDUSD Pair in a Downward Trend: What are the Key Levels to Watch?

At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is facing a significant drop of almost 0.63% on a daily basis and is approaching the support levels that are determined by the lowest points of the last day of November.

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If the pair breaks below this structure, it may encounter the next support level at the 200-day exponential moving average (golden curve), which also coincides with the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the upward movement that started in October 2023. On the other hand, the main resistance level could be the local highs near the 50% Fibo retracement.​
 
EURUSD Continues Downtrend After Consolidation

The EURUSD pair keeps falling in today's market after a brief pause near the 38.2% mark of the Fibonacci retracement. The ADX indicator shows that the market is in a strong trend, as it stays above the 40 line. Therefore, we expect the EURUSD value to face more downward pressure and reach the next support at the 50% Fibo level.

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How China's Banks Support the Yuan Against Moody's Outlook

The yuan stays the same even though Moody's lowers China's credit outlook. The USDCNH did not change much at around 7.15 per dollar, because big state-owned banks in China sold dollars, balancing out Moody's move to lower China's credit outlook.

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Chinese banks swapped yuan for US dollars in the onshore market and then sold those dollars in the spot market. This action helped keep the yuan steady and reduce the worries caused by Moody's about slower economic growth and possible risks in China's property sector. Also, a survey showed that China's services activity increased the most in three months in November.​
 
Bearish Bets on EUR/NZD: The 1.7487 Support in Focus

The EUR/NZD currency pair experienced a rebound from the 1.7487 support level. This upward momentum was anticipated by the stochastic oscillator, which indicated an oversold condition as the pair dipped. The support area at 1.7487 has been a significant obstacle for bearish trends since May 2023.

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However, today the pair struggled to break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Should the bulls fail to maintain the price above this crucial mark, the resilience of the 1.7487 support level may be tested.

The current market forecast remains bearish, with the potential for a breach of the 1.7487 support if the price continues to linger below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Conversely, if the EUR/NZD manages to surpass the 23.6% level, it could signify a temporary pause in the downtrend. In such a scenario, the price might aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a possible shift in market dynamics.​
 
October 2023: A Challenging Month for German Factory Orders

In October 2023, Germany witnessed a noticeable decrease in factory orders, marking the first decline in three months. This drop was unexpected, especially since orders had slightly increased by 0.7% in September, and there were predictions of a modest 0.2% growth. However, the actual figures showed a significant 3.7% fall. This sudden decline points to ongoing instability in Germany's industrial sector.

A closer look at the data reveals that the most significant reduction was in the machinery and equipment sector, which plummeted by 13.5%. This was a major setback, as this sector is usually a strong contributor to industrial growth. Other areas like fabricated metal products, basic metals, electrical equipment, and the automotive industry also experienced downturns. These sectors are crucial for Germany's economy, and their decline can have broader implications.

Interestingly, not every sector faced a downfall. The transport equipment sector, for instance, saw a substantial increase of 20.2%. This surge was largely due to some large-scale orders, highlighting the variability in different industrial segments.

When examining the source of the orders, foreign demand showed a significant decrease of 7.6%. This drop was consistent across the board, with orders from the Euro Area and the rest of the world declining by 7.6% and 7.4%, respectively. However, domestic orders within Germany painted a different picture, registering a 2.4% increase. This suggests that the domestic market still has some resilience, even as international demand weakens.

Another interesting observation is that when excluding large-scale orders, there was actually a 0.7% increase in new orders in October. This indicates that the overall decline might be somewhat influenced by fluctuations in big-ticket orders.

To provide a broader perspective, it's useful to look at the three-month trend. Comparing the August to October 2023 period with the previous three months, there was a 4.6% decrease in new orders. This longer-term view offers a clearer picture of the industrial sector's health, beyond the monthly ups and downs.​
 
GBPUSD in the Ichimoku Cloud

The GBPUSD pair is currently ranging within the Ichimoku cloud, which has stabilized the price above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. For the bullish trend to continue, the pair must cross above the bearish flag.

Failure to do so could lead to a decline towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which is a significant event to watch out for.

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NZ Dollar Bounces Back: A Look at the Interest Rate Landscape

The New Zealand dollar has seen a slight uptick, reaching approximately $0.615. This recovery comes as a result of an improvement in risk sentiment, coupled with ongoing global evaluations of interest rate prospects. On the home front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a steady interest rate for the fourth consecutive meeting in November, although it hasn't ruled out the possibility of further tightening measures.

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Despite mounting pressure for a rate cut due to slowing inflation and lackluster economic data, the RBNZ has kept the cash rate at 5.5%, a peak not seen since December 2008. The central bank has also hinted at the potential need for another rate hike if inflation remains unyielding. This is largely due to concerns about sustained excess demand and continuous inflationary pressures, driven by high core inflation.​
 

Japanese Yen Climbs as US Fed Rate Cuts Anticipated


The Japanese yen has strengthened to about 147 per dollar, reaching its highest point in 12 weeks. This rise comes amid increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may end its current phase of monetary tightening and possibly start reducing interest rates next year. Concurrently, Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi expressed over the weekend that Japan has not yet achieved inflation driven by wage increases. Instead, recent inflation rises have been cost-push driven. Noguchi believes it's too early to move away from the BOJ's highly accommodative monetary policy, echoing sentiments from other BOJ officials.

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In economic news, recent data indicated that Tokyo's core inflation rate in November rose less than anticipated. However, it exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for the 18th month in a row, signaling sustained inflationary pressure. Additionally, there's positive news from the manufacturing sector, where sentiment has improved significantly in December, especially in the auto industry, suggesting a robust recovery.​
 

Swiss Franc Strengthens as SNB Adjusts Forex Reserves


The Swiss franc has been on a strong upward trajectory, surpassing 0.875 against the USD in November, marking its highest point since early August. This increase is largely fueled by expectations that the US Federal Reserve might cut rates by the second quarter of 2024, which has put pressure on the US dollar. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, moderate inflation and a slowing economy have contributed to limited monetary policy support for the franc. Inflation has remained under the 2% mark for the fifth month in a row as of October, and the latest data indicates that the country's GDP growth stalled in the second quarter.

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Moreover, diminishing concerns over a major escalation in the Israel-Gaza conflict have reduced the demand for the franc as a safe haven, leading it to approach four-month lows against the euro. Despite these factors, the franc is still on track to end 2023 stronger against both the dollar and the euro. This strength is partly attributed to the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) reduction in foreign currency reserves, which dropped to a nearly six-year low in October.​
 
Canadian Dollar Climbs as Bank of Canada Holds Firm on Rates

The Canadian dollar has seen further appreciation, crossing the 1.35 mark against the USD. This uptick follows the Bank of Canada's decision to keep interest rates at their 22-year peak, along with a somewhat hawkish outlook. The bank held its key overnight rate at 5%, and even suggested the possibility of another rate hike. This comes amidst ongoing worries about inflation, even though there's been a recognition of both economic slowdown and a general easing of prices.

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Recently, Canada reported a decline in its inflation rate to 3.1% in October, the lowest in four months, while the core rate fell to a 28-month low of 2.7%. At the same time, the economy saw an unexpected contraction at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter. This situation has led investors to speculate on the possibility of a rate cut as soon as March. However, Governor Tiff Macklem has clarified that the Bank of Canada is not currently considering any easing measures, as inflation still significantly exceeds the target.​
 
Turkish Central Bank's Bold Moves Amidst Lira's Fall

The Turkish lira has been on a downward trajectory, now reaching nearly 29 units against the US dollar. This decline persists even as the central bank of Turkey continues to implement what they call 'intentional devaluation,' a strategy that hasn't changed despite increasing interest rates. To manage this situation, the bank has tightened reserve requirements for the lira. This move is aimed at reducing the amount of money available in the interbank market. As a result, local interest rates have risen, aligning more closely with the cost of borrowing lira internationally.

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Over the last three months, the currency's value has been consistently dropping, setting new lows almost every day. On average, the lira loses just over 0.1% daily, which has led to a staggering 50% decrease since the beginning of the year. In a surprising turn, the central bank, during its latest meeting on November 23rd, raised the benchmark one-week repo rate by 500 basis points, reaching 40%. This increase exceeded market expectations, which predicted a rise of only 250 basis points. This decision signals the bank's intensified effort to curb the ongoing inflation trend.​
 
Post-Strike Surge: US Adds 180,000 Jobs in November

In November 2023, it's expected that the US economy experienced a notable upturn in job growth, primarily due to the conclusion of strikes in the automotive and entertainment sectors. It's estimated that around 180,000 jobs were added, a significant increase from the 150,000 jobs in October. This change can be largely attributed to the return of workers from the United Automobile Workers (UAW) and the Screen Actors Guild‐American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) after strike settlements.

Despite this improvement, there's an observable trend of deceleration in the job market. For the second month in a row, the number of jobs added has been below the average monthly increase of approximately 258,800 seen over the previous year, indicating a slowdown. Nevertheless, it's important to recognize that job growth is still surpassing the monthly requirement of 70,000 to 100,000 jobs necessary to keep pace with the growing working-age population.

On another note, the unemployment rate is projected to be around 3.9%, which is the highest it has been since January 2022. Additionally, there's an anticipated decrease in annual wage growth, possibly dropping to 4%, the lowest since June 2021. This suggests a complex scenario in the labor market, where job growth persists amidst a backdrop of declining wage increases and a slight rise in unemployment.​
 
EURUSD Dips Slightly, Future Projections Indicate Decrease

On Friday, December 8, the EURUSD pair saw a slight decline, dropping by 0.0008 or 0.07%, to close at 1.0784. This was a marginal decrease from its previous trading session's level of 1.0792.

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Analysts and global macro models from Solid ECN Security are projecting that the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate, commonly referred to as EUR/USD, will hover around 1.07 by the end of the current quarter. As we look ahead, our forecasts extend to 12 months, where we anticipate the exchange rate might further decrease to around 1.04.​
 
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