Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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Forex NZDUSD live chart update and outlook

The New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZD/USD), often referred to by its forex nickname "Kiwi," is a widely traded major currency pair in the global forex market. The Kiwi is known for its sensitivity to risk sentiment, commodity prices—especially dairy—and monetary policy announcements from both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Today’s forex market sentiment for NZD-USD is shaped by high-impact testimonies from central bank leaders on both sides. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman is set to testify on the 2025 Annual Review, and given that it’s her first major speech since taking office in December, traders will be scrutinizing her tone for any hawkish signals—particularly after recent dairy trade strength. On the US side, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s congressional testimony is likely to draw focus, especially if she hints at continued tightening amid consumer confidence and auto sales data also releasing today. If the Fed takes a more hawkish stance while RBNZ remains cautious, USD may gain further strength. However, if both show hawkish tones, volatility could spike as traders reassess the interest rate outlook for both economies.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The NZD/USD H4 chart shows the price action currently moving above the Ichimoku green cloud, indicating a medium-term bullish bias. The conversion line (Tenkan-sen) remains above the last candle, suggesting potential short-term pressure or consolidation. Notably, the last four candles are red, hinting at a local correction after reaching near the 0.786 Fibonacci level (0.57525), which is acting as strong resistance. Despite this pullback, the broader trend is still bearish, and the price is fluctuating within a key retracement zone between the 0.786 and 0.618 Fib levels (0.57525–0.57158), a typical area for reversal or continuation setups. The %R(14) indicator reads -55.77, reflecting a neutral to mild bearish momentum—neither oversold nor overbought—suggesting room for further downside before any strong reversal is expected. Price action traders may look for confirmation around the 0.5715 support zone to gauge next moves.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis and Forecast Today

The GBP/USD forex pair, also known as "Cable," reflects the value of the British Pound against the US Dollar, making it one of the most widely traded currency pairs globally. Due to its high liquidity and volatility, it remains a favorite among forex traders. Today, market participants will closely monitor the upcoming UK Services PMI and statements from BOE MPC Member Catherine Mann, which may provide crucial insights into the UK's economic health and monetary policy stance. Positive PMI data or hawkish statements from the BOE could potentially strengthen the GBP, whereas robust economic indicators such as the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and employment data releases from the US side could support the USD, leading to significant price movements and volatility in GBP/USD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the GBP/USD H4 chart, we see that recently the market has transitioned into a bullish trajectory. Given the current bullish momentum, we might anticipate a continuation of this upward trend. Presently, the candles have initiated a mild bearish correction and are hovering near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.236. If this correction continues, a likely support is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 1.3168; however, considering the latest green candles, the current level could mark the end of the correction, resuming a bullish move towards the rectangular resistance zone around 1.3300 to 1.3350, where prices previously encountered selling pressure. The 9-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned slightly above the recent candles, touching the latest candle, suggesting short-term indecision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.45 indicates neutral momentum, while the Williams %R at -62.85 signifies mild bearish pressure, hinting that caution is advised for immediate bullish positions.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

AUD USD Approaches Critical Bollinger Band Resistance

AUD/USD, also known as the "Aussie," is a prominent forex pair representing the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar, popular among traders for its liquidity and responsiveness to commodity prices and economic data. Today, traders should closely monitor key economic indicators: Australia's Balance of Trade and Monthly Household Spending Indicator (MHSI), as well as US Jobless Claims, Job Cut Announcements, and Natural Gas Inventories. Positive Australian trade and spending data could strengthen AUD, while better-than-expected US employment figures would bolster USD, influencing the pair’s volatility significantly. Additionally, market participants should pay attention to Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman's speech, as any hawkish indications could further support USD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the AUD/USD H4 chart, previously the chart was moving along a steady bullish trend; however, recent price action has begun showing signs of consolidation, trading along the Bollinger Bands (60). Currently, the bands have expanded, suggesting potential increased volatility. Given that the price is approaching a critical resistance zone around 0.6607, which aligns with previous highs, the pair could experience selling pressure. If resistance holds and candles retreat, a move toward the middle Bollinger Band at 0.65112 is plausible. Indicators such as Williams %R at -0.62 and the Stochastic oscillator at 99.38, 97.46 indicate overbought conditions, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective pullback.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei H4 technical setup and trendline test

The JAP225 (Nikkei 225), often called the Nikkei or Japan 225 Index, is a leading Japanese equity benchmark widely traded in the forex and index CFD markets as the JPY-correlated JAP225 pair. As traders position for both equity momentum and currency-driven volatility, the index frequently reflects shifts in global risk sentiment and Bank of Japan policy expectations. Today’s fundamental outlook for JAP225 is shaped by a dense cluster of USD-sensitive labor-market releases—NFIB Small Business Index, ADP weekly employment estimates, and two JOLTS job-openings releases due to prior delays—which collectively act as key leading indicators for U.S. economic momentum and inflation pressure. Stronger-than-forecast U.S. labor metrics typically lift USD strength, potentially weighing on risk assets like JAP225, while weaker data cools expectations for rate hikes and supports equities. Meanwhile, Japan’s Machine Tool Orders and BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech today could introduce JPY volatility; any hawkish tone from Ueda or improving domestic manufacturing orders may boost JPY, creating downward pressure on JAP225 in forex-linked flows. Overall, today’s mix of high-impact U.S. jobs data and BOJ-related commentary positions the index for elevated volatility on both fundamental and policy fronts.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the H4 chart, the price has been moving in a slight bearish descending-channel structure after a sharp and extended bullish trend, yet the recent candles show that the price has reacted strongly to the long-term support line that has been tested multiple times before. The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns closely with the Bollinger Bands middle band, suggesting equilibrium before a potential breakout. The support zone is positioned near the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing demand in this region, and the red ascending trendline shows buyers attempting to push price upward toward the channel resistance. Additionally, the %R(14) at -35.49 indicates moderately bullish momentum without being overbought, supporting the possibility of a continuation toward the 0.618 retracement at 51039 if the breakout succeeds. However, rejection from the descending-channel resistance may trigger another corrective wave back toward 49500–48500, making this zone pivotal for the next price action move on the JAP225 H4 daily chart technical analysis.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

S&P 500 Index Trading Levels and Economic News Impact

The S&P 500 Index, commonly referred to as "SPX," represents the performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States, making it a crucial barometer for U.S. economic health. Nicknamed "the market's pulse," this index reflects investor sentiment and overall economic stability. Today, the market anticipates significant insights as US President Donald Trump addresses economic conditions at Mount Airy Casino Resort in Pennsylvania. Additionally, traders await the API and EIA crude oil inventories release, critical indicators of economic demand and activity. The Federal Reserve's recent updates on interest rates and economic projections underline the importance of monetary policy in shaping market sentiment and future S&P 500 movements.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically analyzing the S&P 500 H4 chart reveals a long-term bullish trend now entering a consolidation phase. The price action recently exhibits a narrowing range, evidenced by the Bollinger Bands tightening significantly, indicating an imminent breakout. If bearish momentum persists, the market could revisit support at 6785.09. Conversely, a bullish continuation would see resistance tested at 6902.52. The Williams %R at -79.38 signals oversold conditions, suggesting potential upward corrections, while the MACD indicators (-4.77, -0.87, 3.90) suggest diminishing bearish pressure and possible momentum shift.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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