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EURUSD Technical and Fundamental Outlook

The EURUSD currency pair has been experiencing an upward trend since October 2022. Currently, it is trading above its 1.1060 support level. Additionally, technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are in neutral territory, suggesting a bullish outlook.

This morning, the EURUSD is trading close to the strong support at 1.1060. This price level provides a decent supply zone for the pair, and the price may bounce from here. In the near term, there are several factors that could support the EURUSD. Firstly, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates, which could make the euro more attractive to investors. Secondly, the US economy is showing signs of slowing down, which could weigh on the dollar.


As a result, the EURUSD is expected to continue its upward trend in the near term. The pair could test the 1.1200 level in the coming weeks. However, if the ECB does not raise interest rates as expected or if the US economy shows signs of improvement, the EURUSD could pull back.​
CHF Likely to Gain More Strength in Coming Weeks

The Swiss Franc has been gaining strength against the US dollar since November 2022. The pair is now trading at levels last seen in 2011, due to the franc's status as a safe haven currency and comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) about potential FX intervention.

The USDCHF currency pair bounced from the support at 0.8706, but the 4-hour chart shows a doji and long-wicked candle, suggesting that the franc is likely to gain more strength. The moving averages and technical indicators also suggest sell signals.


There are not many high-impact risk events on the calendar this week, but we do have US building permits later today, followed by CB Consumer Confidence and the FOMC meeting next week. The key to the FOMC meeting will be the comments by Fed Chair Powell, as well as any updates on the Fed's projections for the rest of the year.​
Gold Analysis: Price Line Resistance Acts as Support

Gold, the yellow metal, began the day with an increase and is currently trading at $1,971, clinging to the price line resistance that previously acted as support. The market is likely to move back to the channel since it was unable to break the 38.2 Fibonacci level. As long as the Fibo level holds, the bullish outlook remains valid. The price is likely to target $1,987 again, and the previous breakdown of the rising channel can be considered a false breakdown.


The 4-hour timeframe is the best for trading XAUUSD. This timeframe provides enough detail to identify trends and reversals while also capturing the overall market sentiment. In technical analysis, a price channel is a chart pattern that occurs when the price of an asset moves between two parallel trendlines. The upper trendline connects the swing highs in price, while the lower trendline connects the swing lows. The channel can slant upward, downward, or sideways on the chart.​
NZDUSD Poised for Breakout Above Resistance

The NZDUSD currency pair is poised for a breakout, and stabilizing the price above the 0.6246 resistance today. If the bulls are successful in achieving this important milestone, the New Zealand Dollar will be able to set its sights on new targets at higher levels of the Fibonacci retracement, starting with the 50 level and followed by the 61.8 level.

In this scenario, the risk of stop for long positions should be set at 0.6184 or the previous low around 0.6150. Additionally, the simple moving average indicator is currently acting as support around the 0.619 level. However, if this level is breached, the decline could continue to the 0.6056 level.


Overall, this is a critical moment for the NZDUSD currency pair, with the potential for significant gains if the bulls are able to maintain their momentum and push the price above the key resistance level.​
USDCAD: Is the Bear Market Over?

The USDCAD currency pair is currently testing the resistance level of 1.3235, which is also near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI indicator has not yet reached the overbought level of 80 in the 4-hour time frame, indicating that there is still room for the bulls to push the price higher.

The candle sticks formed near the resistance level do not show any significant selling pressure from the bears. This suggests that the upward bias is likely to continue, with the 25 SMA acting as support for the bulls.

If the bulls are successful in breaking through the resistance level, their target will be the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. However, traders should also watch the price action closely for doji, long-wicked candles, or bearish engulfing candles, which could signal a reversal in the trend.


In general, the trend is bearish, and the current uptick movement can be considered a correction. However, if the bulls are able to break through the resistance level, the trend could shift to bullish.​
EURUSD: Key Levels to Watch in Upcoming Week

The Euro weakened against the US Dollar last week, but the overall uptrend for EURUSD remains. This is because the currency pair bounced off a rising support line from June, keeping the upward bias. If it continues to rise, the next resistance level is at 1.1231, followed by a zone between 1.1453 and 1.1495. If it falls, the next support levels are at 1.0834 and 1.0635.


On the 4-hour chart, positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading, which could mean a turn higher. If it rises, the next resistance levels are at 1.1182 and 1.12758. If it falls, the next support levels are at 1.0954 and a zone between 1.0833 and 1.0859.


EURUSD Strategy: A Closer Look at the 4-Hour Chart

The EURUSD currency pair is trading bullish above the trend line from May 31. However, it is important to note that the pair is below the pivot level at 1.104. There are several high-impact economic news releases scheduled for today in the euro zone, which could impact the pair's direction in the short term. Therefore, it is not recommended to trade this currency pair until the new data is released.


On a technical standpoint, the euro is bullish against the dollar as long as the pair is traded above the resistance line at 1.0966. Zooming in to the 4-hour chart, we see a bullish engulfing candle stick, which signals that the rising trend may continue. However, the pair could break the trend line if the economic data released today is disappointing for the euro area.


Traders should keep an eye on today's economic data and watch the market behavior closely before going long or short on the EURUSD currency pair.​
Best Prices to Enter Gold Market with Minimum Risk

Gold bounced from the July's high of $1,987 and is currently testing the trendline that acts as support for the XAUUSD. The RSI indicator is currently below the 50 line and has room to reach the 30 level. Therefore, the downward momentum of the yellow metal may continue in the current trading session, and the bears may be able to challenge the trendline.

The S1 support offers supply for buyers in the asset, as evidenced by the long wick shadow and the bullish engulfing pattern, which signals that bulls are leading the price. If the bullish scenario is correct, the bulls' first target would be the first resistance around $1,980.


However, traders should note that the best prices to enter the market with the minimum risk are at the support level of $1,940. If this level breaks, the gold price could dump to the next support around $1,921.​
Gold Price Update: Double Bottom Pattern in Play

Following up on yesterday's analysis, the XAUUSD pair has tested the support level of $1,940 and is currently challenging the broken trendline on the 4-hour chart, which now acts as resistance. Despite the bears' efforts, they were unable to close below the low of July 27th, and the price bounced back from that zone. This could potentially lead to the formation of a double bottom pattern.

If the price breaks above $1,952, it would provide an opportunity for the bulls to push the price above the trendline and target the pivot point at $1,961.


On the other hand, S1 remains a key factor in maintaining a bullish bias. If it breaks, the path towards S2 at $1,921 will be cleared. We recommend keeping an eye on minor resistance levels and monitoring market behavior around these support and resistance areas.​

A double bottom pattern in forex is a bullish reversal pattern that comprises of two distinct bottoms of similar width and height, below a resistance level (the neckline), giving it the shape of a "W"1. The first bottom forms immediately after a strong downtrend. The price then retraces to the neckline and then falls back to the downside.​
EURUSD Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle and Awesome Oscillator

Currently, the EURUSD currency pair is trading at around 1.097. Interestingly, it's in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which typically indicates that the current trend will continue. As a result, the pair is following the rising trend line and attempting to break down. However, it's important to note that the trend line has been tested four times, so it presents a strong barrier for bearish traders. In addition, the bars on the Awesome Oscillator indicator have turned green and are approaching the signal area.


Furthermore, the low on July 27th supports a bullish outlook for the EURUSD price. If this level holds, the target will be 1.104, followed by 1.113. For those who want to trade long, it's recommended to set your risk at least 29 pips below the S1 support, as indicated by the ATR indicator.

On the other hand, if bearish traders manage to close below 1.0945 on the 4-hour chart, the decline that began on July 18th could extend to 1.092 and then to 1.083.

The Average True Range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility. The ATR is typically derived from the 14-day simple moving average of a series of true range indicators. It shows investors the average range prices swing for an investment over a specified period. The ATR can be used to develop a complete trading system or be used for entry or exit signals as part of a strategy.​
GBPUSD Tests 1.26 Support, Bulls Ready for Reversal

The GBPUSD currency pair is currently trading below the broken trendline, around 1.2696. At the moment, the bears are testing the support area, which extends from 1.2681 to 1.26. This support zone is clearly shown in green on the GBPUSD daily time frame. Interestingly, this support was tested once on June 29, and the bullish trend extended its legs to as high as 1.3141 until July 13.


If we take a closer look by zooming into the 4-hour time frame, we can see a long-wick candlestick. This signals a possibility of a trend reversal or an exhaustion in the bearish bias from July 13. Please note, the green area acts as the supply zone all the way down to S1 support at 1.261. Consequently, there is a high chance for the bulls to regain control if the latter level holds.


On the other hand, for the bears to keep their bearish bias valid, they have to close below the S1 barrier. HubuFX suggests monitoring the price action in the green zone closely before executing a new order or exiting a current short trade.​
USDCAD Resistance at 1.3386, Bounce to 1.332 Possible

On August 2, the USDCAD pair broke out of its channel and surged higher after retesting it. It is currently trading near the resistance at July's higher highs of 1.3386, which also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI indicator is hovering in the overbought area, signaling potential exhaustion in the trend or a possible trend reversal with a double top pattern.

Hubufx recommends closely monitoring price action and candlestick patterns around the 1.3388 resistance level. If the resistance holds, the market could bounce to 1.332, followed by 1.329.


If the USDCAD pair closes above 1.3386, it would indicate a continuation of the upward trend. In this scenario, buyers should exercise patience and wait for the market to retest this level before entering a long position. By waiting for a retest, professional traders can minimize their risk and increase the potential outcome of their trade.​
AUDUSD: Is the Uptrend Over?

The AUDUSD currency pair is currently trading at around 0.6549. Recently, the pair bounced off the resistance level at 0.6589 and formed a doji candlestick pattern on the 4-hour time frame. This pattern suggests a bearish bias in the market. It is important to note that the bearish trend remains valid as long as the price stays below the resistance level of 0.65959. If this scenario plays out, the downward momentum could continue, with the price potentially targeting May's lower lows in the range of 0.6492 to 0.6445.


On the other hand, if the price breaks above the resistance level of 0.6595, we could see a continuation of the correction. In this case, the price of the asset may rise to test the next resistance level at 0.6638.

In summary, traders should keep an eye on key levels of support and resistance when making their trading decisions for the AUDUSD currency pair. A break above or below these levels could signal a potential change in market direction.​

According to the latest news, the AUDUSD pair is preparing to extend losses below the immediate support of 0.6595 as the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reports that employment additions were higher than expectations. The US labor market witnessed an addition of fresh 324K private payrolls, significantly higher than the estimates of 189K but lower than the former release of 497K. The AUDUSD broke below the key support area at 0.6600 and tumbled to 0.6527, reaching the lowest level since June 1. The decline added negative pressure to the Aussie, which still persists. The pair is currently looking for the next support.​
EURUSD: Downtrend Continues, But Bulls Have a Chance at R2

The EURUSD pair is trading in a downtrend and has broken below the 55 Moving Average and the pivot line at 1.099. This suggests that the decline is likely to continue, with the next target being S1 at 1.093 and S2 at 1.086. These levels coincide with the lower line of the channel.


Overall, the outlook for EURUSD is bearish, but there are some bullish factors that could support the price. The 1.035 and 1.1049 levels provide support, and if the price closes above this zone, the bulls could target R2 at 1.112. Traders should be cautious and wait for a clear breakout before taking a position.​

Fundamental factors for EURUSD:
  • ECB President Lagarde to speak at Jackson Hole symposium. ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium today. Her speech is closely watched by markets for any clues about the future of monetary policy in the eurozone.
  • German industrial production data. German industrial production data for July is due to be released today. Economists are expecting a decline of 0.5% from the previous month. A weak reading could weigh on the euro.
  • US retail sales data. US retail sales data for July is due to be released tomorrow. Economists are expecting a strong increase of 0.8% from the previous month. A strong reading could boost the dollar.
XAUUSD Bulls Must Hold Above Trend Line and $1,916

The XAUUSD pair is currently trading above an ascending trend line, hovering around $1941. Gold faces minor resistance at $1,951, which serves as a pivot point for the market to potentially shift from a bearish to a bullish bias. If gold can hold above the trend line, it has a bullish outlook with the potential to target and test resistance at $1980. However, it's important to note that the bulls must keep XAUUSD above both the trend line and support at $1,916.


On the flip side, if bears manage to close below support at $1,916, the decline may continue to previous lower highs around $1,900, followed by support 2 at $1,866.​

  • China's gold imports rise in June. China's gold imports rose in June, as the country's demand for the precious metal remained strong. Imports rose to 89.4 tonnes in June, up from 78.4 tonnes in May. This was the highest level of imports since March 2022. China is the world's largest gold consumer.​
Bitcoin Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

The BTCUSD is currently trading above the 28,099 support level within a declining channel. Despite the bearish channel, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. However, in order for this bullish trend to continue, the bulls must break out of the channel and surpass the key psychological level of 30,000. If this scenario plays out, the BTCUSD pair could target 31,111 and test the previous high for a break.

Market uncertainty can be observed by analyzing the candlestick patterns on the daily time frame. Over the past 11 days, a mix of doji candles and long wick shadow candles have formed, indicating indecision among traders.


On the other hand, if bears manage to close below the 28,099 support level, the BTCUSD price could fall to 26,968 followed by 25,000. As such, HubuFX's analysis team suggests keeping a close eye on market behavior within the downward channel.

In summary, while the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, there are key levels to watch on both the upside and downside. A breakout above 30,000 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a close below 28,099 could indicate further downside potential. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor market behavior closely.​
EURUSD May Break the Channel as RSI Indicator Crosses Signal Line

The EURUSD currency pair has recently responded to the support level at 1.093. It is now testing the weekly pivot at 1.099, which coincides with the upper band of the declining channel in the 4-hour time frame. The RSI indicator has crossed the signal line and is hovering above the 50 line. This suggests that the rise that started yesterday may lead to a break of the channel upward.


It is important to note that horizontal support and resistance levels are generally considered more valid and reliable than trend lines or channels. With this in mind, the main resistance level for bulls is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is around 1.105. As long as this level is not breached, the market outlook will remain bearish. The decline may continue to test the previous low around 1.093, followed by 1.086.​

What is a Channel in Forex Technical Analysis?

In forex technical analysis, a channel is a trading range. It is defined by two lines: a trend line and a concurrent line. These lines are plotted through opposite peaks or troughs. There are three types of channels based on price direction: ascending, descending, and sideways (also known as ranging). Channels are commonly used in technical analysis to confirm trends and identify breakouts and reversals.​
Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin After Channel Break

Recently, Bitcoin broke through its channel and tested the significant $30,000 psychological level. After this break, the outlook for Bitcoin has become increasingly bullish. In fact, the BTCUSD pair has returned to test the broken channel in the 4H time frame, which now acts as support. Additionally, the pivot point is located at 29,183 and with a hold above this level, there is a high chance that we will witness a rise to the 30,739 resistance level.


Furthermore, the dip that occurred a few hours ago provides buyers with an opportunity to enter their buy orders in the market at a cheaper price. Moreover, with the RSI hovering above the signal level, there is strong support for the bullish scenario. Overall, the current market conditions present an attractive opportunity for buyers to enter the market and potentially profit from a rise in Bitcoin's value.​
GBPJPY Sets for Gains as Bears Offer Little Resistance

The GBPJPY currency pair has recently closed above the key resistance level of 183.26, indicating that a rise is imminent. In fact, the pair is now poised to test the second weekly resistance at 184.28. Furthermore, there appears to be little resistance from the bears, suggesting that the uptrend is likely to continue. This is certainly an exciting development for traders and investors alike.


Fundamental Highlights for JPY
  • Japan's economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter of 2023, as rising inflation and a weak yen weighed on consumer spending. The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the April-June quarter, down from 2.5% in the previous quarter.​
  • The Japanese government is considering raising the minimum wage by a record 4.3%, in an effort to boost consumer spending. The current minimum wage in Japan is around $9 USD per hour, and the government believes that a higher minimum wage would help to improve the purchasing power of low-income workers.​
  • The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar in 20 years, as investors have lost confidence in the Japanese economy. The weak yen is making it more expensive for Japanese companies to import goods and raw materials, which is raising costs and could lead to further inflation.​
EURUSD Trading Below Middle Line of Declining Channel

The EURUSD currency pair is currently experiencing a downward trend, trading below the middle line of the declining channel at approximately 1.0920. The bears have managed to close under the 1.0915 support level, and the market is now testing this level as it acts as resistance. The long wick of the candlestick and the RSI indicator, which hovers below the 50 signal line, both indicate that the bears are still in control. As a result, another drop to the 1.08833 support level is possible.


In summary, the outlook for the EURUSD currency pair remains bearish as long as it continues to trade within the downward channel.​
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