Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

US 500 forecast: the index enters downtrend

After reaching its all-time high, the US 500 has entered a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims totalled 231 thousand last week
• Market impact: the data has a negative impact on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of US initial jobless claims (231 thousand versus a forecast of 212 thousand and 209 thousand the previous week) provides a moderately negative short-term signal for the US 500 index, as it points to a more noticeable cooling of the labour market than the consensus expectation. At the same time, it is important to consider the scale: the level of claims remains below crisis levels and closer to the historically normal range.

For the US 500 index, the key factor in such conditions is typically the reaction of expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate. If the market interprets the increase in claims as a factor reducing the likelihood of further monetary tightening, some of the negative impact on stocks may be offset through lower bond yields and improved valuations of companies’ future cash flows.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 30 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

Despite increased volatility, the US 30 index has reached a new all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US retail sales for January showed no growth, coming in at 0.0%
• Market impact: the data has a mixed impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of US monthly retail sales at 0.0%, below expectations of 0.4% and a previous reading of 0.6%, forms a moderately negative macroeconomic signal for the US 30 index in the short term, as it indicates a noticeable cooling of consumer demand relative to market expectations.

This news is generally positive for the US 30 index. The structure of the index is largely oriented towards real-sector companies and cyclical businesses that are sensitive to industrial conditions, domestic demand, and capital expenditure.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

XAUUSD continues to rise: why the Fed will not be able to weaken gold in March

Employment growth and positive US economic data failed to provide sufficient support to the USD, while XAUUSD quotes continue to rise and are testing the 5,070 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 12 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 231 thousand, projected at 222 thousand
• Change in US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 48 thousand, currently at 130 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 February 2026: 5,280

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD forecast indicates that gold prices continue their upward trajectory, trading near 5,070 USD per ounce.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD on the verge of a breakout: how a decline in US CPI and RBA policy may strengthen the AUD

After testing the 2023 highs, the AUDUSD pair is forming a correction before a further rise. Quotes are hovering around 0.7050. Discover more in our analysis for 13 February 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US core Consumer Price Index: previously at 2.6%, projected at 2.5%
• Inflation above 3.0% in Australia is unacceptable, according to the RBA
• AUDUSD forecast for 13 February 2026: 0.7140

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favours the Australian dollar, which has strong chances to continue recovering against the USD after completing the current correction. At this stage, the pair is trading around 0.7050.

The core CPI measures changes in the cost of goods and services from the consumer’s perspective. This index is a key gauge of consumer purchasing dynamics and inflation. Fundamental analysis for 13 February 2026 takes into account that the actual January core CPI reading may decline to 2.5% compared to the previous period, indicating easing inflationary pressure.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD in neutral: statistics will determine everything

The USDCAD pair stands at 1.3616 on Monday. The focus is on fresh inflation data from Canada. Find out more in our analysis for 16 February 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

• The USDCAD pair stabilised after last week’s volatility
• Investors are focused on Canadian inflation data due on Tuesday
• USDCAD forecast for 16 February 2026: 1.3490 or 1.3725

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD pair starts the week at 1.3616. Previously, the Canadian dollar declined moderately but managed to retain most of its weekly gains thanks to signals of slowing inflation in the US.

The focus is on Canada’s January CPI, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Annual inflation is expected to remain at 2.4%. This could influence expectations regarding the Bank of Canada’s future policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 500 forecast: the index is trading sideways

The US 500 tested the support level and entered a sideways channel, although the downtrend still prevails. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 130 thousand in January
• Market impact: the data negatively impacts the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of January US employment data forms a moderately positive yet mixed signal for the US 500 index. Job growth of 130 thousand versus an expected 66 thousand, along with a decline in unemployment to 4.3%, confirms economic resilience. This is important for the equity market, as a strong labour market typically supports consumer demand, corporate revenues, and earnings expectations for the coming quarters.

At the same time, this report reduces the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Stronger employment and lower unemployment imply that the Federal Reserve has fewer reasons to move quickly towards rate cuts. This may be accompanied by higher Treasury yields and an increased cost of capital for businesses.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team