Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD): volatility eases, but demand persists

Gold (XAUUSD) remains volatile around 4,010 USD. While risk sentiment has improved, investor interest in the precious metal persists. Find more details in our analysis for 31 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Reduced geopolitical risk is weighing on gold (XAUUSD)
• October ends on a positive note, with gold up roughly 50% year-to-date
• XAUUSD forecast for 31 October 2025: 4,045

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have retreated to around 4,010 USD per troy ounce, marking the second consecutive week of losses. The metal remains under pressure due to shifting expectations around the timing of future Federal Reserve rate cuts and news of the US-China trade truce.

The two countries reached a one-year agreement on rare earth metals and strategic resources. Donald Trump announced a 10% reduction in tariffs on fentanyl-related products, while Beijing pledged to curb mining output and resume imports of US soybeans. However, the long-term stability of the deal remains uncertain.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD in consolidation, waiting for fresh signals

The USDCAD pair gained 0.7% in October, as markets remain tense amid shifting monetary and political factors. Discover more in our analysis for 3 November 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the USDCAD pair strengthened following weak Canadian GDP data
• Current trend: the market is consolidating amid a lack of fresh catalysts
• USDCAD forecast for 3 November 2025: 1.3977 or 1.4035

Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after data showed an unexpected GDP contraction of 0.3% in August. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.4020, trading within the 1.3980–1.4035 range. In October, the CAD lost 0.7%, marking its second consecutive monthly decline, despite signals from the Bank of Canada suggesting that the easing cycle may be nearing its end.

Last Wednesday, the BoC lowered rates for the fourth time this year and noted that further reductions were highly unlikely. The Canadian dollar briefly strengthened on the statement, but the effect quickly faded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks. Adding to the pressure, Canada’s GDP fell by 0.3% in August following a revised 0.3% increase in July, while markets expected it to remain flat. Preliminary estimates point to a 0.1% rebound in September, which could help avoid a recession in Q3.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 30 forecast: the index enters a correction, but the uptrend remains intact

The uptrend in the US 30 index remains strong, suggesting the potential for another all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US ISM manufacturing prices for October came in at 58.0
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The ongoing US government shutdown has now become the longest in history after the Senate once again failed to pass a funding bill yesterday. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing prices index came in at 58.0, below the forecast of 62.4 and the previous reading of 61.9. This means that prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and components are still rising (as the index remains above 50.0), but the pace of growth has slowed significantly and fallen short of expectations. This is effectively a disinflationary signal from the manufacturing sector.

For the US 30 index, the data is moderately positive. Large industrial companies benefit from easing cost pressures and potentially lower discount rates. However, the short-term reaction will depend on whether investors interpret the data as primarily disinflationary or as a sign of weaker end demand.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

JP 225 forecast: the index corrected by more than 6%

The JP 225 stock index is trading in an uptrend, although volatility has increased significantly. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the Bank of Japan set the interest rate at 0.50% per annum
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is generally positive

Fundamental analysis

The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, fully matching the forecast and previous level, means there was no monetary surprise for the market. For Japanese stock market participants, this signals that accommodative financial conditions will continue: borrowing costs for corporations and households remain low, and the equity risk premium relative to bonds remains attractive.

For the JP 225 index, which includes a significant share of exporters, industrial companies and financial institutions, the overall effect of the decision appears moderately positive. The absence of surprises reduces short-term volatility and reinforces the base scenario for valuation models: stable monetary policy, controlled bond yields and favourable conditions for corporate financing. Unless the accompanying BoJ comments point to a faster pace of tightening in the coming quarters, the JP 225 index will likely maintain its upward momentum.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD loses bullish momentum after two days of growth

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure after a short-term rise, as signs of a weakening US labour market have strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut. The current price is 1.1535. Discover more in our analysis for 7 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US companies cut 153,000 jobs in October
• The US dollar remains under pressure amid signs of a cooling labour market
• EURUSD forecast for 7 November 2025: 1.1470

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after two days of growth. Buyers faced strong resistance around 1.1550, which limited the upward momentum. Despite recovery attempts, the US dollar remains under pressure, as labour market weakness increases expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December rose to 66.9%, up from 62% the day before, reflecting growing expectations of policy easing.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team