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Precious Metals Market Update

Solid ECN

Well-known member
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Gold prices are holding around 1840 during the Asian session, trying to correct after a slight decline on Monday. XAUUSD remains under pressure after the release of fairly strong data from the US labor market: employment rose by 390K, which is better than the projected value of 325K, and the Unemployment Rate, instead of the expected decline to 3.5%, remained at 3.6%. The statistics highlighted the stability of the sector and its readiness to cope with the increase in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, which may contribute to further tightening of monetary policy. In addition, the uptrend in the yield of 10-year US bonds makes the dollar an extremely attractive asset for investment.

An additional negative factor for gold is the current position of the European Central Bank (ECB). The regulator has recently been actively speaking out in favor of raising interest rates in order to curb the sharp rise in inflation. The ECB will meet on Thursday, and some analysts believe that it will announce the start of a reduction in the quantitative easing (QE) program. An increase in the interest rate, according to current forecasts, is possible in Q3 2022, provided that the situation in the markets does not change radically.

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Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the mixed dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is declining, forming a new sell signal (trying to consolidate below the signal line). Stochastic shows a slightly more active decline and at the moment does not contradict the further development of the downtrend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1850.2, 1869.49, 1885, 1900 | Support levels: 1823, 1800, 1775, 1752.87

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Solid ECN

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Silver is trying to recover its positions​

Silver prices are moderately declining during the morning session, again testing 22 for a breakdown. The day before, the instrument made another attempt to grow, reacting to a corrective decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which retreated from their previous highs at 3.038% to 2.979%.

At the same time, trading participants are in no hurry to open new trading positions for the instrument, preferring to wait for the decisions of major global financial regulators on monetary policy issues. In particular, a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held this week, at which, as expected, the regulator may announce the start of a quantitative tightening program, and next week the key issues will be discussed by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, from which the market expects a "hawkish" rhetoric. In turn, the Bank of Japan, judging by the recent comments of its Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, will maintain a soft position.

Moderate demand for silver is also supported by the gradual recovery of industrial activity in China. However, the situation is ambiguous here, as growth in Asia may be offset by a noticeable drop in industrial activity in Europe, where supply chain disruption, high inflation and rising energy prices are causing many factories to stop working. Disruptions are especially noticeable in high-tech areas, where the use of silver as a raw material has always occupied a fairly high percentage.

Although the number of positions in gold for the last week began to gradually increase, the statistics for silver remains at the levels of the previous week. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the advantage in open positions remains in favor of sellers (37.877K positions), while buyers have only 7.797K open contracts. In addition, last week, buyers liquidated 0.926K positions, while sellers, on the contrary increased their number by 0.997K.

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On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly narrowed from below, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having not reached its boundary level of "80", reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to the emergence of "bearish" trend during the Asian session.

Resistance levels: 22.40, 22.7, 23, 23.32 | Support levels: 22, 21.69, 21.39, 21.12

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FXPIP.ONE

Member
nothing clear ) Buy or Sell at XAUUSD and XAGUSD ? ) as i see XAG cannot go higher because of XAU

Do you personally trade at real ? why you not post orders and profit from them ? Nobody read this : if it will go up - trade buy... if it will go down - trade sell... ))
 

Solid ECN

Well-known member
nothing clear ) Buy or Sell at XAUUSD and XAGUSD ? ) as i see XAG cannot go higher because of XAU

Do you personally trade at real ? why you not post orders and profit from them ? Nobody read this : if it will go up - trade buy... if it will go down - trade sell... ))

Hi,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts with the community.

The market moves in between levels. In case of a break out the price will increase or increase to the next support/resistance level.

We provide a clear insight of the market by providing our readers and clients with the recent important news, support and resistant levels. Making trade decisions for others is not something a CFD broker would do.
 

Solid ECN

Well-known member
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The XAUUSD pair is correcting within a sideways trend, trading at 1850 with no signs of a possible change in the current trend.

Yesterday, the World Gold Council (WGC) published a new report on government stocks from March to April 2022. Thus, Turkey's reserves increased by 6.5 tons to 436.7 tons, Kazakhstan – by 5.3 tons, and the total volume reached 373.4 tons of metal, while Uzbekistan's reserves were replenished by 8.7 tons to 346.2 tons. Only the Philippines should be singled out among the major sellers during this period, which managed to sell 5 tons of the precious metal, reducing the available resources to 151.3 tons.

The data released yesterday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disappointed the experts. According to the report, at the beginning of this month, investors reduced the number of net speculative positions in gold to 172.6K from 183.8K, although a week earlier, the figure for the first time in the last two months increased from 175.4K to 183.8K.

As a result, even with an increased interest in physical gold from the central banks, the demand for contracts from market participants continues to remain low, which does not allow the quotes of the XAUUSD pair to strengthen their positions.

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The daily chart shows that the price is moving within the global ascending channel, near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, is forming upward bars.

Resistance levels: 1870, 1917 | Support levels: 1836, 1790​
 

Solid ECN

Well-known member
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The pair grow.​

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) of 3 develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) formed, and a downward correction developed as the fourth wave 4 of (5). Now, the formation of the fifth wave 5 of (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 5 has formed, and the correctional wave (ii) of i of 5 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the XAU USD pair will grow to the levels of 2000 – 2070. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1785.69.

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Solid ECN

Well-known member
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Gold prices show a corrective decline, retreating from their local highs from May 9, updated at the beginning of the week. Investors are taking profits on long positions opened last Friday, when the demand for XAU/USD increased again after the publication of multidirectional macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the US. The released data showed an acceleration of the indicator in May to 8.1%, which was a new record high since December 1981. On a monthly basis, the country's Consumer Price Index accelerated from 0.3% in April to 0.7%, and the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy, slowed down to 6.0% from 6.2%, which is quite obvious, because the reason for the current negative dynamics in the United States is the rise in energy prices.

In turn, the revision of inflation data is likely to lead to a more aggressive policy of the US Federal Reserve, aimed at tightening monetary conditions. In particular, the regulator may decide to either raise interest rates more quickly, for example, by 75 basis points at once, or continue the planned correction of the value after two meetings in June and July. Earlier it was assumed that officials would take a break after two rate hikes in the summer, to assess the impact of the measures taken on the economy and consumer price growth.

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Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the surge of last week's "bearish" sentiments. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1869.49, 1878.84, 1900, 1920 | Support levels: 1850.20, 1823.09, 1800, 1775

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Solid ECN

Well-known member
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On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which a local correction of the lower level has formed as the wave (iv) of v, and the development of the wave (v) of v has started.

If the assumption is correct, the XAG USD pair will fall to the levels of 18.4 - 15.6. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.52.

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Solid ECN

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XAG USD, silver is trying to recover positions
Silver is trying to recover from a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, when the asset retreated to local lows of May 16. Positive dynamics are due to technical factors and expectations of the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Experts do not doubt that the US regulator will again increase the cost of borrowing, but the pace of tightening monetary policy is still in question. Previous forecasts suggested a rate hike of 50 basis points. However, after the data on inflation in the country for May was published at the end of last week, the agency may decide to add 75 basis points to the indicator. Additional pressure on the trading instrument is exerted by the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds: thus, this value for 10-year securities yesterday renewed annual highs for 2022, approaching 3.45%.

The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in China also hurts metal quotes. Only two weeks have passed since the lifting of quarantine restrictions, and Beijing and Shanghai are once again forced to carry out mass testing and restrict the work of enterprises due to a new outbreak of the disease. On Tuesday, the city Health Committee reported that 25 new cases of COVID-19 infection and 38 asymptomatic carriers of the infection were recorded in the capital of the country. Analysts fear that industrial activity in China will again decline, negatively affecting the demand for silver as an industrial raw material.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands moderately decrease: the price range expands from below but not as fast as the "bearish" trend develops at the moment. MACD develops a downward trend, maintaining a fairly strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic maintains a strong downward direction but rapidly approaches its lows, indicating that silver may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 21.21, 21.4, 21.69, 22 | Support levels: 20.86, 20.58, 20.39, 20

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Solid ECN

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XAU USD, demand for gold remains low​

XAU USD is correcting sideways, trading at 1830 and showing no signs of a trend reversal. Gold quotes are in a rather narrow range of 1800 – 1880, having shown a slight increase the day before after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.75%, which indicates the market's inability to calculate the consequences of the actions of the American regulator.

In any case, even a local increase in quotes does not mean a global change in trend, which remains negative. This clearly demonstrates the ratio of the positions of sellers and buyers on the stock exchange. According to the latest report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the balance of contracts continues to remain on the side of sellers and, based on current positions, they hold 71.880K contracts, while buyers retain 23.852K contracts. There is a significantly larger gap in the positions of swap dealers: 83.939K contracts were registered for purchase, and 245.231K for sale. In the previous week, however, the dynamics of the change in the balance was in favor of buyers: they liquidated 3.376K positions, while sellers reduced 4.580K positions. Neither side is building up its assets, suggesting low overall demand for the metal.

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On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within the local side channel, holding in the middle of the range. Technical indicators are in a quite strong sell signal state: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 1807, 1752 | Resistance levels: 1848, 1895

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Solid ECN

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Gold - Quotes are preparing to renew the June maximum​

On the one hand, investors see gold as a proven inflation hedge, but on the other hand, the US dollar is actively gaining in value against the backdrop of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve regarding the tightening of the main parameters of the national monetary policy. Last week, the regulator raised the interest rate by 75 basis points to 1.75% and announced its readiness to adjust the rate further if the situation in the economy requires this. The next meeting of the department is scheduled for July 27, and the dynamics of the national currency and the gold rate will depend on its results.

The long-term trend in the XAU USD pair is downwards. Last week, market participants unsuccessfully tested the resistance at 1877, and the price fell to the support level of 1806. After the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate, the asset strengthened, and at the moment, the trading instrument is in the middle of the corridor 1877 – 1806. If the resistance level of 1877 is broken, then a further increase to 1918 is possible, and in case of the breakdown of the support level of 1806, an update of the May low and a further decrease to the area of 1753 is expected.

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The medium-term trend is upwards. Last week, market participants tested the key support at 1807 – 1799. The zone was held, which led to positive dynamics to renew the high of June in the 1878 area.

Resistance levels: 1877, 1918 | Support levels: 1806, 1790, 1753

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Solid ECN

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Gold price loses momentum​

Gold price fluctuates around the EMA50 that forms intraday resistance against the price, noticing that stochastic has positive momentum to reach the overbought areas, waiting to motivate the price to rebound bearishly and resume the bearish trend, which targets 1810 followed by 1780.25 levels as next main stations.

Therefore, our bearish overview will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 1850 and hold above it.

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The expected trading range for today is between 1810 support and 1850 resistance.​

 

Solid ECN

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XAGUSD, ambiguous dynamics after a sharp decline yesterday​

The asset is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US currency in anticipation of the next speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose rhetoric is likely to favor further tightening monetary policy during the July meeting. As before, the markets do not analyze the very fact of the rate increase but the pace of this growth and the evaluation of the effectiveness of the steps taken earlier. Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has called for a more "hawkish" stance from leading financial regulators, despite the risks of a slowdown in macroeconomic indicators: if measures are not taken promptly, this could lead to general stagflation. However, the current rate adjustment in the world's major economies is 1% to 6% below the historical range and is similar to what was recorded in the 1970s, according to a document published by the BIS.

The trading instrument is slightly supported by a corrective decline in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which on Wednesday morning corrected from 3.207% to 3.172%, as well as inflationary risks in the world's leading economies: for example, in May, price growth in the US accelerated to 8.6%, which is the highest since 1981. Another positive factor for silver is the increase in industrial activity in China, which is gradually increasing the volume of imports and is recovering from the downtime of factories closed for quarantine. Yesterday, Chinese media noted that no new COVID-19 cases were reported in Beijing and Shanghai on Monday for the first time since February 19.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining: the price range is expanding from below, letting the "bears" renew local lows. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having made an unsuccessful attempt to reverse upwards at the end of last week, returned to the decline again, indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 20.86, 21.21, 21.40, 21.69 | Support levels: 20.58, 20.39, 20, 19.5

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Solid ECN

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XAUUSD - gold stays at record lows
Gold positions came under pressure on Friday amid the publication of a stronger report on the US labor market: the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%, while Employment Change rose by 372 thousand, well ahead of the projected 268 thousand, which allows investors to hope for continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch indicator, more than 92% of traders are confident in the "hawkish" rhetoric at the next meeting of the regulator, as well as in the adjustment of the value by 75 basis points at the end of this month.

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Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic has reached its lows and is trying to reverse upwards, indicating risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1752.87, 1775, 1784.31, 1800 | Support levels: 1730, 1720, 1700

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Solid ECN

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Gold is ready for a local reversal
There are only three most liquid equivalent assets in the global economy: the US dollar, oil, and gold. When one of them rises sharply, the other two always fall, which is what is happening now: the oil price has fallen below 100, and gold quotes are approaching 1700. This situation cannot last long: the issue of the US currency causes an increase in inflation, which has already exceeded 9.0%, which means that the purchasing power of the population has decreased again, and this will lead to a drop in demand for the dollar, which will provoke an increase in oil and gold.

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On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global downward channel. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal, not excluding a slight correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed the first rising bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1745, 1786 | Support levels: 1707, 1685​

 

Solid ECN

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XAUUSD - Investors are actively reducing short positions​

The current growth was the reaction of traders to the slowdown in the USD dynamics, which has been putting pressure on the quotes of the precious metal for two months now. The proximity of the US Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, July 27, provoked an outflow of investor capital into conservative gold, which traditionally acts as a safe-haven asset in situations of uncertainty. Of course, if the interest rate is increased by 75 or even 100 basis points, a short-term decline in the trading instrument is inevitable, but after that, the global correction may resume.

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On the weekly chart, the formation of a long-term downward channel continues, with dynamic boundaries of 1800.0–1650.0. The price is trying to start a new wave of growth. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which is slightly weakening: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have begun to approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1695, 1650 | Resistance levels: 1741, 1786​


 
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