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USDCHF Daily Analysis

FXGlory Ltd

Well-known member
USDCHF analysis for 22.12.2023


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The USDCHF pair, representing the exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar and the Swiss Franc, is strongly influenced by both U.S. and Swiss economic indicators, monetary policies, and global risk sentiment. In particular, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, economic data releases such as employment and inflation reports, and geopolitical tensions significantly affect the USD side of the pair. For the Swiss Franc, the Swiss National Bank's policies, Switzerland's economic health, and its role as a "safe haven" currency during times of market uncertainty are key considerations. Traders should monitor upcoming data releases and central bank communications for insights into the pair's movements.

Price Action:

On the H4 timeframe for USDCHF, the price action shows a downward trend, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent candles are bearish, indicating selling pressure. The price is currently below the key moving averages, which act as dynamic resistance levels, confirming the bearish bias in the market.

Key Technical Indicators:

Parabolic SAR:
The placement of the last dots of the Parabolic SAR above the candles signals a bearish trend, suggesting that the downward momentum is currently strong.

RSI: The RSI is below the 50 level, indicating bearish momentum and no immediate signs of being oversold, which may provide room for further downside.

MACD: The MACD histogram is in the negative territory, and the signal line is above the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish market sentiment.

Bollinger Bands: The price is operating near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the price is in a potentially oversold region, which could lead to a temporary pullback.

Support and Resistance:

The next significant support level is found at the recent low around 0.88520.

Resistance: The immediate resistance level is the previous swing high, which can be observed near the 0.89300 level.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The technical analysis of the USDCHF on the H4 timeframe suggests a continued bearish trend, backed by the current price action and confirmed by the key technical indicators. However, with the price nearing the lower Bollinger Band, there could be potential for a retrace or consolidation in the near term. Traders should remain cautious, considering the possibility of sharp moves in reaction to high-impact news releases and central bank statements. It's advisable to use proper risk management strategies and to be prepared for volatility around economic data releases.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.


USDCHF Daily Chart Analysis for 13.05.2024

USDCHF Daily Technical Analysis -H4. 13.05.2024.rtf.jpg

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

For USD/CHF forecast today, upcoming economic events for both the U.S. and Switzerland could impact the currency pair significantly. In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate index and the SNB Chairman's speech may provide insights into the economic sentiments and monetary policy expectations, respectively. A more hawkish stance from the SNB could strengthen the CHF. In the U.S., speeches by FOMC members, including Governors Jefferson and Mester, will be closely watched for hints on future monetary policies. Additionally, U.S. mortgage delinquencies data, though a lagging indicator, could influence market sentiment regarding the health of the housing market and, by extension, broader economic conditions.

Price Action:
The USD/CHF analysis has shown a clear downtrend on the H4 timeframe, marked by consecutive lower highs and lower lows within a declining channel. Recently, there's a consolidation phase noticeable as the price moves closer to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for either a continuation of the trend or a temporary reversal if support levels hold.

Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands:
The bands are currently narrow compared to last week, suggesting reduced volatility. The price trading near the lower band hints at a potential oversold condition which might precede a price rebound or stabilization.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a continuation below the signal line and near zero, indicating weak upward momentum and prevailing bearish sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 44, suggesting slight bearish momentum without entering the oversold territory, which supports the downtrend but also indicates caution for potential reversal signals.

Support and Resistance Levels:
The first level of support can be found at the recent low around 0.90550, which if breached could see further decline towards 0.90000.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is observed at around 0.90850, which aligns with recent minor peaks. A more significant resistance level is at 0.91350, marked by the convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a previous support level.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD CHF analysis today is currently in a bearish trend with potential for further declines as indicated by key technical indicators and the current economic sentiment. However, the upcoming economic speeches and indicators from both the U.S. and Switzerland should be closely monitored as they may induce volatility and potentially shift market dynamics. Traders should maintain a cautious approach, monitoring for any signs of reversal or stronger bearish continuation, especially around key support and resistance levels. It's crucial to adjust strategies based on both technical setups and fundamental news flows.

Disclaimer: The USD/CHF provided price action and technical analysis today is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


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