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🧩News Recap & Tomorrow’s Outlook

🗓️ High‑Impact Economic Calendar – July 25, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: GBP, USD

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 UK – Retail Sales MoM (June)
• Forecast: +2.0% | Previous: −2.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔍 Market Insight:
A rebound after two months of decline would boost GBP sentiment. The UK retail sector is under pressure—markets will be watching for signs of recovery amid rising grocery inflation.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 UK – Retail Sales YoY (June)
• Forecast: +3.5% | Previous: −1.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
📈 Key Implications:
A strong year-over-year print would suggest meaningful spending resilience. A miss would reinforce concern over weak consumption and further drag on GBP.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 UK – Retail Sales Volume Index YoY (June)
• Forecast: 88.9 | Previous: 88.4
💱 Currency: GBP
🧠 What Smart Money’s Watching:
Recovery in sales volume normalization may signal that consumers are finding ways to maintain spending despite inflation. Any downside surprises could trigger fresh GBP weakness.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Durable Goods Orders MoM (June)
• Forecast: −9.0% | Previous: +16.4%
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
After an outsized rebound in May, June’s data is expected to correct sharply. A shallower drop than expected could revive USD strength; a steeper contraction may support dovish Fed narratives and weaken the greenback.

📉 Market Reaction Highlights – Real Past Responses​

🇬🇧​

• Actual: –2.7% | Forecast: –0.5% | Previous: +1.3%

Market Response:
• GBP/USD dropped ~120 pips in the two hours following the release.
• Gilt yields declined ~8 bps intraday.
• FTSE 100 opened lower, led by consumer discretionary weakness.

Why It Mattered:
The significant miss deepened concerns over UK consumer fragility and raised bets that the BOE will maintain a dovish stance longer than expected.

🇺🇸​

• Actual: +16.4% | Forecast: +8.6% | Previous: −6.6%

Market Response:
• USD surged, with EUR/USD falling ~60 pips over two hours post-release.
• 10-yr Treasury yields jumped ~12 bps, reflecting upward repricing of growth expectations.
• U.S. equities rallied – industrial and cap goods stocks led gains.

Why It Mattered:
The outsized book-to-air orders (especially aircraft) reinforced expectations of a cyclical rebound in manufacturing—supporting a stronger dollar and raising Fed rate path expectations.

📝 Market Note​

Today’s data prominently features UK consumer metrics before a heavy Fed calendar hits next week. Watch GBP pairs closely at 06:00 GMT; any surprise there may clash with Fed-driven USD swings around 12:30 GMT. The contrasting narratives—UK consumer strain vs U.S. industrial momentum—could amplify FX volatility, especially in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High‑Impact Economic Calendar – July 25, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: GBP, USD

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 UK – Retail Sales MoM (June)
• Forecast: +2.0% | Previous: −2.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔍 Market Insight:
A rebound after two months of decline would boost GBP sentiment. The UK retail sector is under pressure—markets will be watching for signs of recovery amid rising grocery inflation.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 UK – Retail Sales YoY (June)
• Forecast: +3.5% | Previous: −1.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
📈 Key Implications:
A strong year-over-year print would suggest meaningful spending resilience. A miss would reinforce concern over weak consumption and further drag on GBP.

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 UK – Retail Sales Volume Index YoY (June)
• Forecast: 88.9 | Previous: 88.4
💱 Currency: GBP
🧠 What Smart Money’s Watching:
Recovery in sales volume normalization may signal that consumers are finding ways to maintain spending despite inflation. Any downside surprises could trigger fresh GBP weakness.

🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Durable Goods Orders MoM (June)
• Forecast: −9.0% | Previous: +16.4%
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
After an outsized rebound in May, June’s data is expected to correct sharply. A shallower drop than expected could revive USD strength; a steeper contraction may support dovish Fed narratives and weaken the greenback.

📉 Market Reaction Highlights – Real Past Responses​

🇬🇧​

• Actual: –2.7% | Forecast: –0.5% | Previous: +1.3%

Market Response:
• GBP/USD dropped ~120 pips in the two hours following the release.
• Gilt yields declined ~8 bps intraday.
• FTSE 100 opened lower, led by consumer discretionary weakness.

Why It Mattered:
The significant miss deepened concerns over UK consumer fragility and raised bets that the BOE will maintain a dovish stance longer than expected.

🇺🇸​

• Actual: +16.4% | Forecast: +8.6% | Previous: −6.6%

Market Response:
• USD surged, with EUR/USD falling ~60 pips over two hours post-release.
• 10-yr Treasury yields jumped ~12 bps, reflecting upward repricing of growth expectations.
• U.S. equities rallied – industrial and cap goods stocks led gains.

Why It Mattered:
The outsized book-to-air orders (especially aircraft) reinforced expectations of a cyclical rebound in manufacturing—supporting a stronger dollar and raising Fed rate path expectations.

📝 Market Note​

Today’s data prominently features UK consumer metrics before a heavy Fed calendar hits next week. Watch GBP pairs closely at 06:00 GMT; any surprise there may clash with Fed-driven USD swings around 12:30 GMT. The contrasting narratives—UK consumer strain vs U.S. industrial momentum—could amplify FX volatility, especially in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High‑Impact Economic Calendar – July 28, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currency: USD

🕒 14:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
• Forecast: –8.0 | Previous: –12.7
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market Insight:
A less-negative reading (forecast vs prior) would suggest stabilization in Texas manufacturing—supporting USD sentiment. A deeper unexpected contraction could reinforce weakness in industrial sector sentiment and pressure the dollar.

📉 Market Reaction Highlight – Real Past Response​

🇺🇸​

• Actual: –12.7 | Forecast: ~–10.0 | Previous: –15.3

Despite improvement from May, the index missed expectations and remained deeply negative. This raised red flags on Texas energy and factory activity, particularly in the oil & gas sector where business outlook showed elevated uncertainty.

Real Market Reaction:
Click to expand...
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eased modestly, pulling back from around 97.10 toward 96.90.
  • S&P 500 drifted lower after briefly hitting session highs.
  • Gold prices ticked up as traders hedged on dovish sentiment.
Why It Mattered:
The deeper-than-expected persistence in contraction signaled that regional manufacturing and energy conditions remain challenged—adding pressure to the broader USD narrative and confirming a cautious Fed outlook.
Click to expand...

📝 Market Note​

Watch for volatility around 14:30 GMT, when the Dallas Fed index is released. A miss could prompt short-term USD softness—notably in DXY, USD/CAD, and energy-related sentiment flows. A beat, however modest, may be taken as a signal of industrial stabilization in U.S. services regions.

Disclaimer:
The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 31, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CNY, AUD, JPY, CHF, EUR, USD, CAD, NZD
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)
Forecast: 49.9 | Previous: 49.7
💱 Currency: CNY
🔍 Market Insight:
As a leading indicator of economic health, this index captures the sentiment of China's state-dominated industrial sector. A print below 50 signals contraction. A positive surprise may offer a boost to risk sentiment and the yuan.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Retail Sales MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: AUD
📊 Key Indicator:
Retail spending reflects consumer confidence and economic resilience. A higher print may support the Aussie dollar, particularly if it outpaces inflation.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Building Permits MoM Prel (June)
Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: 3.2%
💱 Currency: AUD
🏗️ Why It Matters:
Permits are a forward-looking indicator of construction activity. A slowdown from the previous month could signal caution in housing markets or regulatory shifts.
🕒 03:00 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.5%
💱 Currency: JPY
📈 Market Focus:
The BoJ’s stance on rate policy remains critical as Japan navigates yield control and inflation pressures. Any deviation from expectations could trigger significant yen volatility.
🕒 05:00 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Consumer Confidence (July)
Forecast: 35 | Previous: 34.5
💱 Currency: JPY
🧠 Insight:
Sentiment readings hint at future household spending. A bounce may ease concerns of domestic stagnation.
🕒 06:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Retail Sales MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: -0.6%
💱 Currency: CHF
📊 Takeaway:
A rebound in monthly sales may support the franc, but seasonality and volatility should be considered in market response.
🕒 06:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Retail Sales YoY (June)
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: CHF
💡 Why It Matters:
Annual growth in inflation-adjusted retail sales provides a clearer trend. An upside beat could reinforce economic recovery narratives.
🕒 06:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Inflation Rate MoM Prel (July)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market Insight:
Slightly softer price growth could reduce pressure on the ECB. However, services inflation remains sticky.
🕒 06:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – PPI YoY (June)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
🏭 Producer Trends:
Flat growth in producer prices signals subdued upstream pressure, which may keep core inflation contained.
🕒 06:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – PPI MoM (June)
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.8%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔧 Industry Pulse:
Deflationary pressure at the producer level could flow into consumer prices. A deeper contraction might influence ECB tone.
🕒 06:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Inflation Rate YoY Prel (July)
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 1.0%
💱 Currency: EUR
🧭 Market Movers:
Stable headline inflation may be welcomed by the ECB, but surprises to the upside could stir hawkish speculation.
🕒 07:55 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Unemployment Rate (July)
Forecast: 6.4% | Previous: 6.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Behind the Numbers:
A slight rise in joblessness could add pressure to the German labor market outlook and weigh on euro sentiment.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
📉 Eurozone Pulse:
Steady labor data offers no new cues, but any deviation could affect broader euro area risk pricing.
🕒 12:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Inflation Rate YoY Prel (July)
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 2.0%
💱 Currency: EUR
📊 Key Reading:
A dip in annual inflation may reinforce dovish ECB expectations, though core dynamics still matter.
🕒 12:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Inflation Rate MoM Prel (July)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: EUR
🎯 Trading Takeaway:
Month-over-month changes are crucial to detect new price trends. Even a mild increase could rattle bond markets.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Personal Spending MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: USD
🛍️ Key Signal:
Spending rebounds signal consumer strength — a critical input for U.S. GDP trajectory and Fed timing.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Core PCE Price Index MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: USD
📈 Why It Matters:
The Fed’s top inflation gauge. A stronger reading could raise odds of rate hikes or delay cuts.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Personal Income MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
💱 Currency: USD
💰 Income & Demand:
Stronger income growth may support spending — a positive feedback loop for inflation and rate expectations.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Core PCE Price Index YoY (June)
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: USD
🔎 Long-Term View:
This annual inflation print anchors Fed strategy. A sustained rise above 2.5% keeps rate cuts off the table.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending July 26)
Forecast: 220K | Previous: 217K
💱 Currency: USD
📉 What to Watch:
Small shifts in claims matter more during tight labor cycles. A surprise rise could revive recession chatter.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – GDP MoM (May)
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: CAD
🧠 Market Insight:
Flat growth suggests stagnation risks. A deeper contraction may pull forward BoC easing expectations.
🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Chicago PMI (July)
Forecast: 43 | Previous: 40.4
💱 Currency: USD
📍 What’s at Stake:
An improving PMI could signal an industrial rebound. Still under 50, but trajectory matters for Fed watchers.
🕒 22:45 GMT
🇳🇿 New Zealand – Building Permits MoM (June)
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 10.4%
💱 Currency: NZD
🏗️ Construction Outlook:
Permits are a key forward indicator. A steep drop may suggest softening demand or policy constraints.
🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
💱 Currency: JPY
📉 Final Word:
No change expected, but Japan’s tight labor market remains under scrutiny as policymakers assess wage dynamics.

​

Market Behavior Around High-Impact Data Releases​


U.S. Core PCE (MoM & YoY), Personal Spending & Income – June 27, 2025​


In May 2025, core inflation in the U.S. rose more than expected, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index— the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—climbing 0.2% for the month and 2.7% year-over-year, surpassing forecasts of 0.1% and 2.6%. Overall PCE inflation increased 0.1% monthly and 2.3% annually, in line with expectations. Despite the inflation uptick, consumer spending fell 0.1% and personal income declined 0.4%, signaling economic softening. Analysts viewed the report as consistent with a gradually slowing economy ahead of anticipated tariff impacts. While markets remained largely stable, the data kept speculation alive about a potential July Fed rate cut, though officials remained cautious amid political pressure from President Trump.
EUR/USD initially spiked higher following the U.S. data release, driven by weaker-than-expected income and spending figures that fueled speculation of a Fed rate cut and weakened the dollar. However, the surprise uptick in core PCE inflation to 2.7% YoY acted as a hawkish signal, prompting a reversal as traders reassessed the Fed’s stance. The market's whipsaw reaction reflected the tension between dovish hopes and hawkish inflation data, illustrating how mixed signals can create volatile, layered responses in currency markets.


EURUSD Core PCE, Spending, Income Release.jpg




📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 1, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR, USD
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – PPI YoY Q2
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 3.7%
💱 Currency: AUD
📦 Economic Insight:
A slower pace in wholesale price inflation may indicate reduced upstream cost pressures. Traders will watch for implications on RBA’s inflation trajectory and policy stance.
🕒 01:45 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)
Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 50.4
💱 Currency: CNY
🔍 Market Insight:
Steady at the expansion threshold, this index reflects sentiment among smaller manufacturers. A beat may strengthen the yuan and risk sentiment globally.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Inflation Rate MoM Flash (July)
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
📉 What to Watch:
A monthly decline in consumer prices may reinforce dovish expectations on ECB policy and weigh on the euro in the near term.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Inflation Rate YoY Flash (July)
Forecast: 1.8% | Previous: 2.0%
💱 Currency: EUR
🎯 Market Movers:
Softening annual inflation could pressure the ECB to maintain a looser stance. A surprise drop may dampen euro strength.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (July)
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔐 Behind the Data:
Core inflation is central to ECB decision-making. A decline may reduce tightening prospects and influence rate expectations.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings MoM (July)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: USD
💼 Why It Matters:
Stable wage growth signals balanced labor cost pressures. Acceleration could fuel inflation concerns and lift the dollar.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Non-Farm Payrolls (July)
Forecast: 110K | Previous: 147K
💱 Currency: USD
🚨 What’s at Stake:
Lower job creation may raise concerns over labor market momentum. A miss could dent USD sentiment and shift Fed outlook.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Unemployment Rate (July)
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.1%
💱 Currency: USD
🧭 Policy Signal:
A rise in unemployment, even marginal, may weigh on rate hike expectations. Markets will react swiftly to surprises.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)
Forecast: 49.4 | Previous: 49.0
💱 Currency: USD
⚙️ Key Indicator:
Still below the growth threshold, but improvement signals possible stabilization. Markets will assess Fed implications if readings edge closer to 50.

​

How Markets React to Big Data Drops: A Volatility Snapshot​

​

NFP Week: U.S. Labor Market & Services Data Set – July 3rd​


In June 2025, the U.S. economy showed signs of underlying strength, led by a better-than-expected labor market and a rebound in the services sector. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, beating forecasts of 110,000 and reflecting firm hiring momentum. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, its lowest since February, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year — a combination that eased wage inflation concerns. Government hiring, particularly in education, contributed 73,000 jobs, with healthcare and social assistance also posting solid gains. Despite a dip in labor force participation to 62.3%, financial markets responded positively as stocks rallied and Treasury yields rose. The strong data prompted traders to significantly lower the probability of a July rate cut to just 4.7%, effectively removing it from immediate consideration.
Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector returned to growth, with the ISM Services PMI® climbing to 50.8% in June from 49.9% in May. Business activity and new orders saw notable improvements, registering 54.2% and 51.3%, respectively. However, employment within the sector contracted again, falling to 47.2%. Prices remained elevated at 67.5%, continuing a trend of persistent cost pressures. Inventories grew modestly, though high inventory sentiment pointed to concerns over excess stock. Supplier deliveries slowed, and the backlog of orders declined further. Despite ongoing uncertainties related to trade, tariffs, and global tensions, new export orders and imports both increased, signaling an uptick in external demand. Business sentiment remained cautious, with inflation, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty dominating corporate outlooks.

GBPUSD Labour.jpg




📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.
Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 4, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CHF, USD
🕒 06:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Inflation Rate YoY (July)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: CHF
📊 Market Insight:
Switzerland’s inflation remains flat, with housing, healthcare, and food prices being key contributors. Any deviation could influence SNB policy, though expectations remain subdued.
🕒 06:30 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Inflation Rate MoM (July)
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: CHF
🎯 Trading Takeaway:
A negative monthly print may reinforce Switzerland’s low-inflation narrative. Traders will assess the data’s implications for consumer pricing trends and the franc's stability.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Factory Orders MoM (June)
Forecast: -6.0% | Previous: 8.2%
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Following a sharp surge, orders are expected to pull back. A steeper decline could signal cooling demand, while a smaller drop may boost confidence in U.S. manufacturing momentum.

​

🚀 See What Happens When Big Data Drops 📉📈​

​

Swiss Inflation Picks Up in June, Beating Market Forecasts – July 3, 2025​

In June 2025, consumer prices in Switzerland rose by 0.2% from the previous month, up from a 0.1% increase in May, driven mainly by higher costs for international holidays and hotel stays. Year-on-year, inflation ticked up 0.1%, rebounding from May’s 0.1% decline—the first annual drop since March 2021—and defying market expectations of another fall. Price increases were recorded in restaurants and hotels (1.6% vs 1.3% in May) and clothing and footwear (1% vs -0.3%), while housing and energy costs remained steady at 1.1%. Food prices were flat, and transport (-3.7%) and recreation and culture (-0.1%) continued to decline. Core inflation, excluding volatile items, edged up to 0.6% from May’s 0.5%, marking a slight recovery from a 44-month low.

USDCHF.jpg



📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility​

Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.
Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 5, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR, CAD, USD, NZD
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Household Spending YoY (June)
Forecast: 3.9% | Previous: 4.2%
💱 Currency: AUD
📉 Trend Insight:
Spending growth is slowing, signaling possible cooling in household demand. If the reading misses forecasts, it may weigh on AUD sentiment.
🕒 01:45 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Caixin Services PMI (July)
Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 50.6
💱 Currency: CNY
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Slightly above 50, the index shows weak expansion. A dip below that threshold could signal contraction in China’s service sector and pressure the yuan.
🕒 06:45 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Industrial Production MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.5%
💱 Currency: EUR
📈 Key Implications:
A rebound in output may support the euro, indicating improved industrial momentum after prior weakness in May.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – PPI MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: -0.6%
💱 Currency: EUR
🧠 What Smart Money’s Watching:
While early PPI data from Germany/France blunts impact, any upside surprise could revive ECB hawkish bets if price pressures return.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – PPI YoY (June)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market Insight:
Producer price trends offer an early inflation signal. Gradual increases may subtly influence rate expectations across the eurozone.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Balance of Trade (June)
Forecast: -C$1.6B | Previous: -C$5.9B
💱 Currency: CAD
📊 Trading Takeaway:
A smaller deficit suggests strengthening export demand — positive for CAD as trade flows rebound after a weak spring.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – ISM Services PMI (July)
Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.8
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Why It Matters:
A continued rise above 50 signals modest expansion. Traders will watch closely for signs of resilience in the non-manufacturing sector.
🕒 22:45 GMT
🇳🇿 New Zealand – Unemployment Rate (Q2)
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: 5.1%
💱 Currency: NZD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Any unexpected rise in unemployment may weigh on NZD, reinforcing concerns over domestic demand and RBNZ rate path.

Visual Breakdown: How Key Economic Events Move the Markets​



Market Reaction to July 3 ISM Services PMI

In June 2025, the U.S. services sector returned to modest expansion, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 50.8, up from 49.9 in May. Business Activity (54.2) and New Orders (51.3) moved back into growth territory, indicating improving demand conditions. However, the Employment Index dropped sharply to 47.2, signaling renewed contraction in service-sector hiring and raising concerns over labor market weakness. Supplier Deliveries slowed slightly (50.3), while Prices remained elevated at 67.5, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Inventories increased to 52.7, but the Backlog of Orders declined further to 42.4, pointing to weaker forward demand. Despite improvements in export and import activity, the market interpreted the drop in employment as a dovish signal, prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy expectations. This shift weighed on the U.S. dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD rally illustrated in the chart.

GBPUSD ISM.jpg




📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 6, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: EUR

🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Factory Orders MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: -1.4%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market Insight:
Seen as a reliable lead indicator of manufacturing momentum. A positive surprise would signal increased production activity, supporting the euro.

🕒 08:00 GMT
🇮🇹 Italy – Industrial Production MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.7%
💱 Currency: EUR
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Output across manufacturing, utilities, and mining is tightly linked to overall economic cycles. A rebound may point to recovering domestic demand.

🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Retail Sales MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.7%
💱 Currency: EUR
📈 Key Implications:
Retail spending is the engine of eurozone consumption. A stronger print could reinforce confidence in Q3 growth and buoy the euro.

🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Retail Sales YoY (June)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 1.8%
💱 Currency: EUR
🧠 What Smart Money’s Watching:
Annual growth across sectors like food, fuel, and furniture offers deeper insight into household resilience. Continued strength could shape ECB expectations.


See How Major Economic Data Moves the Markets​



Germany’s DE Factory Orders MoM Fell 1.4% in May Amid Sector Slowdown​

In May 2025, Germany's manufacturing sector saw a decline in new orders, which fell by 1.4% compared to April, according to provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Excluding large-scale orders, the drop was more pronounced at 3.1%. The downturn was mainly driven by a sharp 17.7% decrease in orders for computer, electronic, and optical products, following a surge in April due to major contracts. Additional declines in electrical equipment (-6.2%) and basic metals (-5.1%) also weighed on performance, although gains in fabricated metal products (+18.2%) and transport equipment (+6.8%) provided some offset. Capital goods orders dipped by 0.9%, intermediate goods by 3.4%, while consumer goods rose 3.1%. Foreign demand increased 2.9%, with a 9.0% rise from non-eurozone countries but a 6.5% drop from within the eurozone. Domestic orders slumped by 7.8%. Meanwhile, turnover in manufacturing decreased 1.9% from the previous month and was down 1.7% year-over-year, further reflecting weakening industrial momentum.

EURUSD DE Factory.jpg




📝 Market Note: Volatility from Geopolitics & Earnings Season​

Geopolitical developments remain a key driver of market sentiment — influencing volatility, safe-haven flows, and overall risk appetite across global markets.

At the same time, earnings season is in full swing, bringing heightened price action across major indices like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40. But it’s not just the headline indices — global equities across sectors and regions often react sharply to earnings results, forward guidance, and executive tone. With both risk and opportunity elevated, traders should remain agile and well-informed.

⚠️ Disclaimer:​

This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. It is intended to help you better understand market dynamics and recognize how various factors may influence price behavior.
 
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🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 7, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD, CAD
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Balance of Trade (June)
Forecast: A$3.8B | Previous: A$2.238B
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Market Insight:
Australia's trade surplus is expected to grow, supported by export strength. A higher-than-expected print would suggest stronger demand for Australian goods, potentially lifting the AUD.
🕒 03:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Imports YoY (July)
Forecast: -1.3% | Previous: 1.1%
💱 Currency: CNY
📉 Key Implications:
A return to negative import growth may signal weakening domestic demand. Markets may interpret this as a drag on Chinese recovery and global trade flows.
🕒 03:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Exports YoY (July)
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.8%
💱 Currency: CNY
📦 What to Watch:
While still growing, a slowdown in export growth could raise questions about global demand for Chinese goods and trade war overhangs.
🕒 03:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Balance of Trade (July)
Forecast: $117.3B | Previous: $114.77B
💱 Currency: CNY
🧠 Why It Matters:
A widening surplus typically supports the yuan, but any weakness in export momentum could weigh on sentiment despite the headline strength.
🕒 05:45 GMT
🇨🇭 Switzerland – Unemployment Rate (July)
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: CHF
⚖️ Behind the Numbers:
Stable unemployment reflects a steady Swiss labor market. Any deviation may influence the SNB’s tone on monetary policy.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Industrial Production MoM (June)
Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: 1.2%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔧 Market Movers:
Following a surprise rise last month, markets expect a contraction. A stronger result could signal resilience in Europe's largest economy.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Balance of Trade (June)
Forecast: €17.9B | Previous: €18.4B
💱 Currency: EUR
📊 What to Watch:
Germany’s surplus remains robust, but any further narrowing may highlight pressure on export competitiveness amid global trade friction.
🕒 11:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – BoE Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 4.25%
💱 Currency: GBP
💣 Key Risk Event:
Markets expect a 25 bps cut. If the BoE surprises with a hold, the pound could spike on revised tightening expectations.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 220K | Previous: 218K
💱 Currency: USD
📉 Trading Takeaway:
Weekly claims remain stable. Any unexpected jump may fuel recession worries and weigh on the dollar, while a drop could signal labor resilience.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Ivey PMI s.a. (July)
Forecast: 54.5 | Previous: 53.3
💱 Currency: CAD
📈 Insightful Edge:
The Ivey PMI tracks month-end changes in economic activity across Canada’s public and private sectors. A print above 50.0 signals expansion; below 50.0 indicates contraction. Markets will watch closely to gauge whether Canada’s momentum holds amid global uncertainty.

How Key Economic Releases Impact Financial Markets​


June 19, 2025 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP/USD, M15)​

The Bank of England held its interest rate steady at 4.25% in its latest meeting, despite recent soft labour market data, reinforcing a steady, data-driven approach to monetary easing. While three policymakers voted for an immediate cut, signaling a likely reduction in August, the Bank emphasized the need for “gradual and careful” adjustments, citing persistently high inflation well above its 2.0% target. Markets remained largely unfazed, maintaining expectations for two rate cuts this year. Analysts warned, however, that any further economic deterioration could accelerate cuts below 3.75%. Goldman Sachs predicted a faster pace of easing starting in November, potentially bringing the rate down to 3.25% by year-end — a move that could weaken the Pound if markets adjust to lower rate expectations.

GBPUSD BoE.jpg



📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
Last edited:

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 8, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: EUR, CAD
🕒 05:30 GMT
🇫🇷 France – Unemployment Rate Q2
Forecast: 7.5% | Previous: 7.4%
💱 Currency: EUR
🔍 Market Insight:
This quarterly figure shows the share of the French labor force actively seeking work. A rising unemployment rate may weigh on the euro by signaling a weaker labor market and softer domestic demand.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Full-Time Employment Change (July)
Forecast: 3K | Previous: 13.5K
💱 Currency: CAD
📈 Key Implications:
Full-time positions reflect stronger labor market commitment. A softer reading could imply weakening confidence among employers and cap Canadian dollar gains.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Employment Change (July)
Forecast: 15K | Previous: 83.1K
💱 Currency: CAD
🎯 Trading Takeaway:
Job creation is a crucial early indicator of consumer strength. A strong print can fuel Canadian dollar appreciation, while a downside surprise may shake sentiment.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Unemployment Rate (July)
Forecast: 6.9% | Previous: 6.9%
💱 Currency: CAD
🧠 What Smart Money’s Watching:
Though a lagging metric, stable unemployment suggests sustained economic health. Any deviation could influence expectations for Bank of Canada policy shifts.

How Financial Markets Respond to Key Economic Indicators​


83,100 Jobs Added as Unemployment Falls to 6.9% – June 2025 Report (Released July 11, 2025)​

In June 2025, Canada’s labour market delivered a strong surprise by adding 83,100 jobs, significantly outperforming expectations of a net loss of 3,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%, beating forecasts of 7.0% and down from the previous 7.0%, according to data from Statistics Canada. The unexpected strength—driven largely by part-time gains in retail, wholesale, and healthcare—has reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its upcoming July 30 meeting. While economists acknowledged ongoing concerns such as high youth unemployment and a still-elevated overall jobless rate, the consensus has shifted toward the BoC holding rates steady unless the inflation data due July 15 shows a significant decline. Average hourly wages rose 3.2% year-over-year, reinforcing the perception of a resilient labour market. Despite lingering trade uncertainties following renewed U.S. tariff threats, analysts noted that the strong jobs report highlights Canada's underlying economic strength, even amid persistent structural challenges for job seekers.

USDCAD JOBS.jpg



📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 9, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CNY
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Inflation Rate YoY (July)
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: CNY
🔍 Market Insight:
Year-on-year consumer prices provide the clearest picture of long-term inflation trends. A reading above forecast could lift the yuan as traders price in potential policy tightening from the PBoC.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Inflation Rate MoM (July)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: CNY
📈 Key Implications:
Monthly price gains suggest near-term inflationary pressure. Sustained increases may prompt a more hawkish monetary stance.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Producer Price Index YoY (July)
Forecast: -3.4% | Previous: -3.6%
💱 Currency: CNY
🎯 Trading Takeaway:
Producer prices are a leading signal for consumer inflation. Less negative PPI may point to easing deflationary pressures, supporting the yuan if the trend continues.

​

Visual Guide: How Markets Move on Big Economic News​

​

China Posts Mixed June Price Data as Consumer Inflation Rises but Producer Prices Slide – July 9, 2025​

In June 2025, China’s producer prices fell 3.6% year-on-year, the steepest drop since July 2023, as a deepening price war and weak consumer demand weighed on the economy. The decline, sharper than the expected 3%, extended the PPI’s multi-year deflationary streak since September 2022. Consumer prices rose 0.1% from a year earlier, beating forecasts for no change, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.7%, its largest gain in 14 months. Policymakers, led by President Xi Jinping, criticized excessive price competition and pledged tighter regulation, but analysts warned deflation risks remained without stronger stimulus. Temporary support from trade-in subsidies for goods and EVs was expected to fade, and oversupply continued to pressure prices. Despite the deflationary backdrop, China’s exports showed resilience, with shipments to Southeast Asia offsetting weaker U.S. demand.

USDCNH.jpg


📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 12, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, CAD, JPY
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – NAB Business Confidence
Forecast: 3 | Previous: 5
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Market Insight:
This monthly survey of around 600 firms gauges sentiment on trading, profitability, and hiring. Lower confidence may weigh on the Australian dollar as it signals a more cautious corporate outlook.
🕒 04:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.85%
💱 Currency: AUD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Interest rates are the primary driver of currency value. Any surprise move or policy shift could trigger sharp market volatility in AUD pairs.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.7% | Previous: 4.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
📈 Key Implications:
Stable jobless rates signal labor market resilience. A rise could pressure the pound, while a drop may strengthen it.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Employment Change
Forecast: 65K | Previous: 134K
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Trading Takeaway:
Tracks shifts in total employment. A slowdown in hiring could temper optimism about UK growth and weigh on sterling.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Forecast: 45 | Previous: 52.7
💱 Currency: EUR
🧠 What Smart Money’s Watching:
Measures investor and analyst optimism for the next six months. A drop may indicate cooling economic momentum and dampen euro sentiment.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: USD
🔑 Why It Matters:
Excludes volatile food and energy costs, offering a clearer view of underlying price trends. Persistent core inflation could keep Fed policy tight.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: USD
📊 Market Movers:
Consumer prices dominate inflation trends. A stronger-than-expected reading may lift the dollar on expectations of further rate hikes.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Trading Takeaway:
Stability here may ease rate hike fears, but any upside surprise can quickly shift expectations toward tighter Fed policy.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: USD
🧭 Market Insight:
The headline CPI basket covers essentials like shelter, food, and transportation. Even small changes can impact market sentiment and Treasury yields.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Building Permits MoM
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 12%
💱 Currency: CAD
📈 Key Implications:
An early indicator of construction activity. Stronger permits growth suggests economic expansion, supporting the Canadian dollar.
🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Producer Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market Insight:
Tracks wholesale price changes. A rebound could signal upstream inflation pressures feeding into consumer prices.
🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.9%
💱 Currency: JPY
📊 Market Movers:
Lower PPI growth may ease inflationary concerns, potentially allowing the Bank of Japan to maintain ultra-loose policy longer.

​

📌 Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


​

U.S. Inflation Rises to 2.7% in June — July 15, 2025​

In the week of July 15, 2025, U.S. inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index rising 0.3% in June, pushing the annual rate to 2.7%—its highest since February and in line with forecasts. Core inflation climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% annually, with mixed signs of tariff impacts: apparel and household furnishings rose, while vehicle prices declined. Shelter costs remained the largest CPI contributor, up 3.8% year-on-year. President Donald Trump seized on the report to renew calls for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates by up to 3 percentage points, arguing inflation was low. Markets reacted modestly, with stocks mixed and Treasury yields slightly down, as the Fed signaled no immediate policy change ahead of its late-July meeting.

EURUSD CPI US.jpg




📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 13, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: GBP

🕒 23:01 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -8% | Previous: -7%
💱 Currency: GBP
📈 Key Implications:
This index measures the percentage of surveyors reporting rising house prices minus those reporting declines. A reading below zero indicates more surveyors see falling prices. As a leading gauge of housing inflation, it can influence sterling sentiment by signaling shifts in property market momentum.

📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Geopolitical tensions remain a critical driver of market behavior, often sparking sharp swings in volatility, altering risk sentiment, and weighing on global equity performance. Staying alert to these developments is essential for anticipating sudden shifts in market direction.

Earnings season is another powerful catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline benchmarks such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often dominate attention, other major and regional equity markets can also react strongly. Sentiment is shaped not only by earnings results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — turning this period into one of both heightened opportunity and increased risk.

Disclaimer: This content is provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered trading or financial advice. The aim is to deepen understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may arise, offering insight into how the market functions and the scenarios it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 14, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, JPY
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.3%
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Why it matters:
A lower unemployment rate could signal a job market heating up — and put the Australian dollar on the front foot. Traders will watch for any surprise drop that could stir RBA rate speculation.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Employment Change
Forecast: 13K | Previous: 2K
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Trading insight:
A sharp jobs rebound here would be a bullish sign for domestic spending power and could give AUD pairs a morning boost.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: 15K | Previous: -38.2K
💱 Currency: AUD
📈 Market pulse:
Full-time roles mean more stability and spending power. A big positive swing could hint at stronger growth ahead.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GDP Growth Rate YoY
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 1.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
⚠️ Market watch:
Slowing annual growth could weigh on sterling and keep BoE hawks cautious. A miss here might sour sentiment fast.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔎 Why traders care:
A soft quarterly number would signal fading momentum. Sterling bulls will be hoping for any upside surprise.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.9%
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Quick take:
From contraction to growth? This could be a welcome sign that UK industry is finding its footing again.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GDP MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯Trading takeaway:
Even a small rebound matters here — it could be enough to shift short-term GBP sentiment.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 1.7%
💱 Currency: EUR
📊Market movers:
A pullback this sharp could stoke concerns about eurozone growth and pressure the euro.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: USD
💡Trading insight:
Higher producer prices could keep inflation chatter alive — and the Fed on edge.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – PPI YoY
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
💱 Currency: USD
📈Why it matters:
If producer prices keep climbing, markets may start bracing for stickier inflation and prolonged higher rates.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 228K | Previous: 226K
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ Market watch:
Any uptick could hint at cooling labor momentum, while a drop could keep the USD supported.
🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍Market insight:
Even modest growth here could lift yen sentiment — and make the BoJ slightly more comfortable holding policy steady.

​

📌 How Markets Respond to Major Economic Announcements​


U.S. PPI (MoM & YoY) – July 16, 2025​

In July 2025, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs had only a modest overall impact on inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% annually — the highest since February — driven largely by higher shelter, transportation, and medical care costs. Equity markets advanced following the release, while Treasury yields were mixed, as traders boosted expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Although tariffs influenced certain categories, such as household furnishings, their broader effect remained limited. Economists, however, warned that price pressures could persist as tariffs continue to filter through the economy.


US PPI.jpg



📝Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
Attila said:

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 14, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, JPY
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.3%
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Why it matters:
A lower unemployment rate could signal a job market heating up — and put the Australian dollar on the front foot. Traders will watch for any surprise drop that could stir RBA rate speculation.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Employment Change
Forecast: 13K | Previous: 2K
💱 Currency: AUD
💡 Trading insight:
A sharp jobs rebound here would be a bullish sign for domestic spending power and could give AUD pairs a morning boost.
🕒 01:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: 15K | Previous: -38.2K
💱 Currency: AUD
📈 Market pulse:
Full-time roles mean more stability and spending power. A big positive swing could hint at stronger growth ahead.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GDP Growth Rate YoY
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 1.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
⚠️ Market watch:
Slowing annual growth could weigh on sterling and keep BoE hawks cautious. A miss here might sour sentiment fast.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔎 Why traders care:
A soft quarterly number would signal fading momentum. Sterling bulls will be hoping for any upside surprise.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.9%
💱 Currency: GBP
💬 Quick take:
From contraction to growth? This could be a welcome sign that UK industry is finding its footing again.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GDP MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯Trading takeaway:
Even a small rebound matters here — it could be enough to shift short-term GBP sentiment.
🕒 09:00 GMT
🇪🇺 Euro Area – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 1.7%
💱 Currency: EUR
📊Market movers:
A pullback this sharp could stoke concerns about eurozone growth and pressure the euro.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: USD
💡Trading insight:
Higher producer prices could keep inflation chatter alive — and the Fed on edge.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – PPI YoY
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
💱 Currency: USD
📈Why it matters:
If producer prices keep climbing, markets may start bracing for stickier inflation and prolonged higher rates.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 228K | Previous: 226K
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ Market watch:
Any uptick could hint at cooling labor momentum, while a drop could keep the USD supported.
🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍Market insight:
Even modest growth here could lift yen sentiment — and make the BoJ slightly more comfortable holding policy steady.

​

📌 How Markets Respond to Major Economic Announcements​


U.S. PPI (MoM & YoY) – July 16, 2025​

In July 2025, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs had only a modest overall impact on inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% annually — the highest since February — driven largely by higher shelter, transportation, and medical care costs. Equity markets advanced following the release, while Treasury yields were mixed, as traders boosted expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Although tariffs influenced certain categories, such as household furnishings, their broader effect remained limited. Economists, however, warned that price pressures could persist as tariffs continue to filter through the economy.


View attachment 18703


📝Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
Click to expand...

Very helpful to my trading
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 15, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: CNY, USD
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 5.0%
💱 Currency: CNY
🔍 Market insight:
A steady reading may keep policy expectations unchanged, but any drop below forecast could boost the yuan as traders price in stronger consumer spending power.
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Industrial Production YoY
Forecast: 6.4% | Previous: 6.8%
💱 Currency: CNY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Industrial production is the engine of China’s economy. Slowing growth could signal cooling momentum, pressuring both the yuan and regional market sentiment.
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇨🇳 China – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 4.8%
💱 Currency: CNY
💡 Trading takeaway:
A pickup in retail sales would suggest resilient consumer demand — a key support for China’s post-pandemic recovery narrative.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 1.0 | Previous: 5.5
💱 Currency: USD
📊 Why traders care:
A steep drop in this regional manufacturing gauge could point to slowing industrial activity, potentially weighing on USD sentiment.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.9%
💱 Currency: USD
🎯 Market movers:
Retail spending drives the bulk of U.S. economic growth. A slowdown here could temper rate hike expectations and weaken the dollar.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
💱 Currency: USD
🔎 Quick take:
A softer monthly gain could raise concerns about fading consumer momentum heading into Q3.
🕒 13:15 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: USD
📈 Trading takeaway:
Flat output growth may reinforce worries over manufacturing slowdown — a risk factor for broader U.S. GDP.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
Forecast: 60.5 | Previous: 61.7
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market watch:
Weaker consumer sentiment could signal caution in household spending, potentially dampening growth expectations.

​

📌 Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


U.S. Retail Sales - 17 July, 2025​

In June 2025, U.S. retail sales rebounded 0.6% after a 0.9% drop in May, exceeding expectations and suggesting modest economic improvement, which gave the Federal Reserve more reason to delay interest rate cuts while assessing tariff-driven inflation effects. Core retail sales rose 0.5%, with gains led by auto dealerships, building materials, clothing, and online sales, though some increases were likely due to higher prices from tariffs. Weekly jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000 — a three-month low — signaling steady labor market conditions, while continuing claims edged up to 1.956 million. Economists noted that consumer spending improved moderately in Q2, supported by a stable job market, though risks from trade policy uncertainty, slower wage growth, and higher import prices persisted. Treasury yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. stocks traded higher following the data.

EURUSD Retail.jpg



📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 19, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: AUD, USD, CAD, JPY
🕒 00:30 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.6%
💱 Currency: AUD
🔍 Market insight:
A dip in confidence would suggest consumers are turning more cautious. Since household spending drives much of Australia’s economy, this release could nudge the Aussie dollar if sentiment shifts sharply.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Building Permits MoM Prel
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
💱 Currency: USD
📊 Quick take:
Permits are a leading indicator for housing construction. Even small declines can signal fading builder optimism, potentially weighing on broader growth sentiment.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Housing Starts MoM
Forecast: -2.2% | Previous: 4.6%
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A sharp reversal after last month’s jump could suggest volatility in the housing sector. Traders will be watching closely as housing feeds directly into economic confidence.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: CAD
💡 Trading takeaway:
A stronger monthly print would point to sticky inflation pressures — and could revive expectations for further Bank of Canada tightening.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.7%
💱 Currency: CAD
📈 Why it matters:
This measure strips out volatile items, offering the cleanest read on inflation trends. A stable figure keeps the BoC in wait-and-see mode, but an upside surprise could spark CAD strength.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.8% | Previous: 1.9%
💱 Currency: CAD
🔎 Market movers:
Headline CPI is closely watched for policy cues. Even a small acceleration may fuel speculation of more aggressive rate action.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: CAD
🎯 Trading insight:
A sharp monthly pickup could reignite inflation fears — potentially lifting the loonie as traders price in tighter conditions.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Exports YoY
Forecast: -2.1% | Previous: -0.5%
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
Exports are Japan’s growth engine, particularly in autos, machinery, and electronics. A deeper contraction could highlight global demand weakness, weighing on the yen.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Imports YoY
Forecast: -10.4% | Previous: 0.2%
💱 Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A steep drop in imports may signal slowing domestic demand — though it could also improve the trade balance if export resilience holds. Traders will parse the mix closely.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Balance of Trade
Forecast: ¥250B | Previous: ¥153.1B
💱 Currency: JPY
💡 Trading takeaway:
A stronger surplus could support yen sentiment, especially if driven by resilient exports rather than collapsing imports.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Machinery Orders MoM
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: -0.6%
💱 Currency: JPY
📊 Why traders care:
A slight improvement from last month’s contraction may ease concerns over capital spending, but momentum still looks fragile.

🕒 23:50 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Machinery Orders YoY
Forecast: 5.4% | Previous: 4.4%
💱 Currency: JPY
📈 Market movers:
A healthy annual increase suggests businesses remain committed to investment, offering a potential cushion for Japan’s growth outlook.


📌 Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


Sticky Inflation Pressures Keep Bank of Canada on Alert – CPI Report (July 15, 2025)​

Canada’s inflation rose 1.9% year over year in June, up from 1.7% in May, as a smaller drop in gasoline prices and faster gains in durable goods such as vehicles and furniture added upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core inflation excluding energy remained firmer at 2.7%, showing that underlying price pressures persisted despite the April removal of consumer carbon pricing. On a monthly basis, CPI advanced 0.1% (0.2% seasonally adjusted). Clothing and footwear prices accelerated amid tariff-related trade uncertainty, while grocery inflation slowed as fresh vegetable prices declined for the first time since 2021. The data signaled that disinflation progress was uneven, with sticky core prices keeping pressure on the Bank of Canada. As a result, the Canadian dollar gained value, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood that the BoC would lean hawkish to prevent inflation from regaining momentum.
Canada’s CPI rose 1.9% in June, up from 1.7% in May, with core inflation holding at a firm 2.7%. Stronger vehicle and furniture prices offset softer food costs, while gasoline declines slowed. The hotter-than-expected inflation supported expectations of tighter policy, giving the CAD a short-term boost.

CADJPY.jpg



📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

At the White House today, Trump set red lines on Ukraine by ruling out both NATO membership and reclaiming Crimea in any peace deal. European leaders arrive at 16:00 GMT, Zelensky meets Trump at 17:00, with full summit talks at 19:00. The backdrop: intensified Russian strikes and civilian deaths in Kharkiv, raising the stakes for negotiations. If tensions escalate, both oil and gold could rise on risk premiums and safe-haven demand, while signs of de-escalation could push both lower.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 20, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: NZD, GBP, EUR, USD, AUD
🕒 02:00 GMT
🇳🇿 New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.25%
💱 Currency: NZD
🔍 Market insight:
Short-term rates drive currency valuation. A cut here could pressure the kiwi, while a surprise hold or hike may spark sharp NZD gains.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
💱 Currency: GBP
💡 Trading takeaway:
Slowing monthly core inflation could ease pressure on the Bank of England, softening sterling momentum.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.6%
💱 Currency: GBP
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A higher annual CPI may revive hawkish BoE expectations, potentially lifting the pound.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.7%
💱 Currency: GBP
📊 Why traders care:
Excluding volatile components, this is the key measure for policy. Any upside surprise could reinforce sterling strength.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
💱 Currency: GBP
🔎Quick take:
A softer monthly figure may ease concerns about near-term price pressures.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Producer Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: EUR
💬 Market movers:
Flat producer prices suggest limited cost pressures, reducing immediate ECB concerns.
🕒 06:00 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: -1.4% | Previous: -1.3%
💱 Currency: EUR
📈 Trading insight:
Falling annual producer prices highlight disinflationary forces, a potential drag on euro sentiment.
🕒 18:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – FOMC Minutes
💱 Currency: USD
🔍 Market insight:
Markets parse the minutes for hawkish or dovish tones. A stronger emphasis on inflation risks could boost the dollar, while cautious language may soften it.
🕒 23:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 53.8
💱 Currency: AUD
⚡ Why it matters:
A solid composite reading above 50 indicates expansion across sectors, supporting AUD sentiment.
🕒 23:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.5 | Previous: 51.3
💱 Currency: AUD
📊 Quick take:
Even modest gains in manufacturing PMI above 50 point to steady industrial growth.
🕒 23:00 GMT
🇦🇺 Australia – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.4 | Previous: 54.1
💱 Currency: AUD
🎯 Trading takeaway:
Services dominate the economy. Continued expansion here may reinforce optimism around Australia’s growth outlook.

​

📌 Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – May 28, 2025: NZD/USD Reaction​

In May 2025, New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–1 to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, citing weaker domestic activity, declining core inflation, and spare capacity in the economy. Annual CPI inflation had risen to 2.5 percent in the first quarter, within the 1–3 percent target band, while elevated commodity prices and earlier rate cuts were helping the economy recover from its 2024 contraction. Policymakers warned that rising global tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty were likely to weigh on global growth and New Zealand’s exports, creating downside risks. Still, despite firmer near-term inflation expectations, the Committee expected inflation to return toward the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term, leaving the Bank positioned to respond flexibly to both domestic and international developments.

NZD/USD initially fell after the rate cut, as lower interest rates reduce the currency’s yield appeal. However, the move had been fully priced in, and the accompanying statement emphasized recovery, strong export prices, and inflation within target. With no indication of a more aggressive easing cycle, traders unwound short positions, driving a sharp rebound that lifted NZD/USD to an intraday high of 0.59797.

NZDUSD.jpg





📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

🗓️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 21, 2025​

🕒 Timeline: GMT | 💱 Focused Currencies: JPY, EUR, GBP, USD, CAD
🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 53.6
💱 Currency: JPY
🔍 Market insight:
A small dip in services PMI may suggest softer momentum, but readings above 50 still point to ongoing expansion.
🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.4 | Previous: 51.5
💱 Currency: JPY
📊 Why it matters:
Captures the overall private sector outlook. A stable print reinforces steady growth, while any surprise slip could weigh on yen sentiment.
🕒 00:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 49.4 | Previous: 48.9
💱 Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Still below 50, the sector remains in contraction. Traders watch closely for signs of a rebound that could support the yen.
🕒 07:30 GMT
🇩🇪 Germany – HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 48.7 | Previous: 49.1
💱 Currency: EUR
💡 Trading takeaway:
A weaker PMI highlights ongoing strain in Europe’s largest economy. Any further dip may pressure the euro as industrial headwinds persist.
🕒 08:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 48.6 | Previous: 48.0
💱 Currency: GBP
📈 Market movers:
Stuck below 50, UK manufacturing remains fragile. A surprise rebound could lend short-term support to sterling.
🕒 08:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.7 | Previous: 51.8
💱 Currency: GBP
🔎 Quick take:
Services hold the bulk of UK output. A steady reading above 50 keeps growth momentum alive, a positive for GBP.
🕒 08:30 GMT
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.8 | Previous: 51.5
💱 Currency: GBP
🎯 Trading insight:
Composite PMI consolidates both services and manufacturing. Stability above 50 signals resilience in overall economic activity.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 9.0 | Previous: 15.9
💱 Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A sharp drop could reflect cooling factory sentiment. Markets will watch closely as this index often leads broader industrial data.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 225K | Previous: 224K
💱 Currency: USD
📊 Why traders care:
Weekly claims are a direct read on labor health. A surprise jump could weaken USD by raising concerns about job market strength.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
💱 Currency: CAD
🔍 Market insight:
Cooling producer prices may ease inflation pressure and reduce expectations for BoC tightening.
🕒 12:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada – PPI YoY
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.7%
💱 Currency: CAD
📈 Trading takeaway:
A rise in annual producer prices suggests inflationary momentum could persist, supporting CAD.
🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 55.1
💱 Currency: USD
💬 Market watch:
A slowdown in momentum could temper dollar strength, especially if services also cool significantly.
🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 55.7
💱 Currency: USD
📊 Quick take:
Services have been driving US growth. A softer print could raise concerns over the strength of consumer demand.
🕒 13:45 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.8
💱 Currency: USD
⚡ Why it matters:
Still below 50, this points to contraction. Traders will watch if the downtrend deepens, signaling weakness in industrial momentum.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 3.9M | Previous: 3.93M
💱 Currency: USD
📈 Trading takeaway:
Housing is a critical growth driver. Lower sales may reflect affordability pressures, potentially softening economic outlook.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – Existing Home Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -2.7%
💱 Currency: USD
🔎 Market insight:
A smaller decline may hint at stabilization, but overall momentum in housing remains fragile.
🕒 14:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States – CB Leading Index MoM
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.3%
💱 Currency: USD
💡 Why traders care:
A composite of 10 indicators, this index gives an early steer on economic direction. Another negative print would reinforce slowdown concerns.
🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.3%
💱 Currency: JPY
📊 Market movers:
Stable inflation at elevated levels may keep the BoJ cautious but alert to pressures that could shift policy.
🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 3.3%
💱 Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A slight easing in core inflation could reduce pressure on the BoJ to tighten, softening yen sentiment.
🕒 23:30 GMT
🇯🇵 Japan – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 Currency: JPY
💬 Quick take:
Even small monthly increases show inflationary stickiness — a factor that could sway yen positioning.

📌 How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

U.S. Flash PMIs (Composite, Services & Manufacturing) – July 24, 2025​

In July, U.S. business activity strengthened, led by the services sector, with S&P Global’s flash Composite PMI rising to 54.6, the highest since December, from 52.9 in June, while the services PMI jumped to 55.2 from 52.9. Inflation pressures increased as companies charged more for goods and services, largely due to tariffs on imports. Manufacturing slipped into contraction at 49.5, reflecting both front-loading ahead of tariffs and rising costs, which many firms directly linked to import duties. Input and output price gauges climbed, with service providers and manufacturers citing tariffs as a key driver of higher costs. While demand improved and new orders rose, sentiment remained subdued amid concerns over tariffs, state funding cuts, and weaker exports, signaling risks to growth even as inflation was expected to accelerate above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

GBPUSD Flash PMI.jpg



📝 Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
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