🧩News Recap & Tomorrow’s Outlook

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 22, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CAD, USD

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12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales MoM Prel
Forecast: 1.3% | Previous: -1.1%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A rebound in monthly retail sales would mark a sharp turnaround from last month’s contraction. Stronger spending could lift the Canadian dollar as traders price in firmer domestic demand.

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12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 4.9%
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Annual growth in retail sales reflects the strength of consumer demand. A sustained increase signals resilience in Canada’s economy and can reinforce CAD momentum.

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14:00 GMT
United States – Fed Chair Powell Speech
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
Powell’s remarks often set the tone for monetary policy expectations. Any hawkish hints about inflation risks could strengthen the dollar, while dovish language may trigger a softer USD reaction.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 24, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: NZD

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22:45 GMT
New Zealand – Retail Sales YoY Q2
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: NZD
Market insight:
A modest pickup in annual retail sales suggests gradual improvement in consumer demand. Stronger-than-expected growth could support the New Zealand dollar by signaling healthier household spending trends.

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High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 25, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

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08:00 GMT
Germany – Ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 87.0 | Previous: 88.6
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
This key sentiment survey covers thousands of firms across sectors. A weaker reading may reinforce concerns about slowing eurozone growth and weigh on the euro.

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14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales MoM
Forecast: -1.1% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
Housing is a sensitive gauge of consumer demand. A contraction in new home sales momentum could signal affordability strains and soften growth outlook.

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14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales
Forecast: 620K | Previous: 627K
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
New home sales ripple through the economy — from mortgages to furnishings. A dip could weigh on USD if it signals housing market weakness.

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14:30 GMT
United States – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 0.2 | Previous: 0.9
Currency: USD
Quick take:
As a regional factory gauge, this index can foreshadow national manufacturing trends. A near-flat reading suggests limited momentum in the industrial sector.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Data Mixed: Jobless Claims Fall, PMI Rises, Housing Sales Disappoint — July 24, 2025​

The latest U.S. data painted a mixed economic picture, as jobless claims fell to a three-month low of 217,000, highlighting labor market stability, while July’s Composite PMI rose to 54.6, its strongest since December, with services expanding but manufacturing slipping into contraction. Tariff-driven price pressures underscored inflation risks, giving the Fed little incentive to ease policy despite political calls for cuts. Meanwhile, new home sales came in weaker at 627,000 versus 690,000 expected, which briefly lifted EUR/USD to 1.1789 before the dollar regained strength, driving the pair down to 1.1735 as the market leaned on broader signs of U.S. resilience.

EURUSD spiked to 1.17888 after weaker-than-expected U.S. New Home Sales (627K vs 690K forecast), but the move quickly faded. Earlier in the day, the dollar was supported by stronger Jobless Claims (217K, 3-month low) and resilient PMI data — Composite PMI Flash 55.2, Services 55.2, Manufacturing 49.5. These reinforced underlying USD strength, capping the euro’s upside. The pair reversed from 1.17712 → 1.17355, highlighting a clean short setup on fading housing momentum against broad USD support.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 26, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, USD

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01:30 GMT
Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
The minutes provide a detailed look at the RBA’s policy debate. Any hawkish tone on inflation could fuel AUD strength, while cautious wording may weigh on the currency.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Durable Goods Orders MoM (July)
Forecast: -2.5% | Previous: -9.3%
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
Durable goods reflect business and consumer demand for long-lasting items. Another decline would highlight industrial weakness, potentially pressuring the dollar.

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14:00 GMT
United States – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)
Forecast: -19 | Previous: -20
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Still deep in negative territory, this regional gauge signals continued strain in factory activity. Any improvement, however small, could offer a short-term boost to USD.

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14:00 GMT
United States – CB Consumer Confidence (August)
Forecast: 96.0 | Previous: 97.2
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Confidence levels give an early read on household spending trends. A further dip may stoke concerns over consumer resilience, while a stronger print would support the dollar.

Market Response to Key Economic Events​

GBPUSD Reaction – U.S. Durable Goods Data (July 25, 2025)​

On July 25, 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June to $311.8 billion, reversing part of May’s sharp 16.5% gain. The decline was driven by a 22.4% drop in transportation equipment orders, while excluding transportation, orders edged up 0.2%. Despite the weak headline, underlying momentum showed resilience: shipments rose 0.5%, marking a seventh straight monthly gain, and unfilled orders increased 1.0% to $1.47 trillion, led by transportation equipment. Inventories also rose for the ninth consecutive month, up 0.2% to $588.6 billion, with machinery contributing the most.

Post-release of Durable Goods Orders m/m (–9.3%) and Core Durable Goods Orders ex-transport m/m (+0.2%), GBPUSD moved lower despite the soft headline. The pair opened at 1.34453 and dropped to a post-release low of 1.34166, showing USD strength. Markets largely discounted the headline drop as transportation volatility drove the decline, while shipments and unfilled orders pointed to underlying resilience. Combined with reduced Fed rate-cut expectations and a risk-off tone, investors favored the dollar as a safe haven, keeping GBP under pressure.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 27, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Monthly CPI Indicator (July)
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
The monthly CPI offers an early snapshot of inflation trends. A stronger reading could fuel expectations of RBA tightening, giving the Aussie dollar a lift.

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06:00 GMT
Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence (September)
Forecast: -21.3 | Previous: -21.5
Currency: EUR
Trading takeaway:
Still deeply negative, confidence remains weak. Any upside surprise, however small, could improve sentiment toward the euro by signaling a potential consumer rebound.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

AUDUSD Price Reaction – Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator (July 30, 2025)​

Australia’s inflation cooled further in mid-2025, with second-quarter CPI falling to 2.1% year-on-year, its lowest since March 2021 and below expectations, while quarterly inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.9% in Q1. The June monthly CPI also eased to 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in May, with food, alcohol, tobacco, and housing driving gains while transport costs fell. Underlying measures softened, with trimmed mean inflation slipping to 2.1% from 2.4%. The weaker readings reinforced expectations of an RBA rate cut in August, with analysts noting rising unemployment and slower GDP growth, and markets projecting rates could fall to 2.85% by mid-2026.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 28, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, USD, JPY

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07:00 GMT
Switzerland – GDP Growth Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.3% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: CHF
Market insight:
Growth in one of the world’s wealthiest economies looks to be cooling. With Switzerland’s strength rooted in pharmaceuticals, hi-tech, and banking, a slowdown could dent confidence and weigh on the franc.

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12:30 GMT
United States – GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
From contraction to a sharp rebound — this print could reshape market sentiment. Strong GDP would reinforce the U.S. growth story, bolster Fed confidence, and underpin dollar strength.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 237K | Previous: 235K
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Still near historic lows, weekly claims continue to showcase labor market resilience. Any upside surprise could quickly shift USD direction as traders reassess Fed outlook.

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23:30 GMT
Japan – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
Currency: JPY
Quick take:
Japan’s job market remains one of the tightest globally. A steady reading keeps yen direction muted, but a drop would add fuel to expectations of stronger consumer demand.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Household demand appears to be slowing after a strong June. Any miss here could deepen worries over domestic consumption — a key growth pillar for Japan.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
Even with monthly softness, annual sales are improving. Stronger consumer spending would support growth momentum and lend underlying strength to the yen.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: 2.1%
Currency: JPY
What’s at stake:
A sharp swing from strong June output to contraction would highlight fragile manufacturing conditions. Markets will be alert — this release often sets the tone for yen movement.

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How Markets React to Major Economic Announcements​

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U.S. GDP Final Q1 & Jobless Claims Data – June 26, 2025​

On June 26, 2025, U.S. labor market data pointed to softening conditions as weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since 2021, signaling hiring struggles. Economists warned that President Trump’s tariffs were creating uncertainty, making businesses reluctant to expand payrolls, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.3% in June. At the same time, first-quarter GDP was revised down to a 0.5% contraction from an earlier 0.2% estimate, reflecting weaker consumer spending, while the goods trade deficit widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion on falling exports. Durable goods orders rebounded 16.4% in May, driven by a 230% surge in commercial aircraft, though underlying business spending remained constrained by tariff uncertainty. Despite softening data, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, signaling caution as inflation risks from tariffs persisted.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 29, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, EUR, CHF, USD, CAD

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05:00 GMT
Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 34.2 | Previous: 33.7
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Confidence remains weak, but even small improvements could support yen sentiment by hinting at better household demand.

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06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 4.9%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
Annual sales growth is cooling. A softer print could weigh on the euro as it signals pressure on domestic demand.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A negative monthly reading would reinforce concerns of slowing consumption in Europe’s largest economy.

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06:45 GMT
France – PPI YoY
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.2%
France – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Producer prices are turning higher again. If confirmed, inflation pressures may begin re-emerging in the French economy.
06:45 GMT
France – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 1.0%
France – Inflation Rate MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: EUR
Why traders care:
Signs of stronger inflation could lift ECB policy expectations and provide support for the euro.

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07:55 GMT
Germany – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A steady jobless rate signals stability, but traders will watch closely for any surprise rise that could weigh on the euro.

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12:00 GMT
Germany – Inflation Rate YoY Prel
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.0%
Germany – Inflation Rate MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: EUR
Market movers:
Germany’s inflation sets the tone for eurozone CPI. Even small deviations here can move EUR pairs sharply.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Income MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Steady income growth supports spending but may not shift Fed expectations without surprises.
12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Spending MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
Consumer spending drives nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Stable growth keeps momentum intact.
12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
United States – Core PCE Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE will be watched closely. A hotter print could quickly strengthen the dollar.

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12:30 GMT
Canada – GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.5%
Canada – GDP Growth Rate Annualized
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 2.2%
Canada – GDP MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
Canada’s economy is slowing sharply. Weak growth could weigh on CAD, though a positive monthly print may soften the blow.

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13:45 GMT
United States – Chicago PMI
Forecast: 46.0 | Previous: 47.1
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Still below 50, regional manufacturing remains in contraction. A deeper fall could drag on sentiment ahead of ISM next week.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Personal Income, Spending & Jobless Claims – July 31, 2025​

In June 2025, U.S. personal income rose by $71.4 billion, or 0.3%, while disposable personal income increased $61.0 billion, also 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures climbed $69.9 billion, with $40.1 billion spent on services and $29.9 billion on goods. The personal saving rate stood at 4.5% as savings totaled $1.01 trillion. The PCE price index advanced 0.3% from the previous month and 2.6% from a year earlier, while the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually. Separately, compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% in the second quarter and 3.6% year over year, with wages and salaries up 1.0% in Q2 and 3.6% annually. Benefit costs rose 0.7% in Q2 and 3.5% over the year, with union workers seeing stronger wage gains than non-union counterparts. State and local government workers recorded a 4.0% rise in compensation, moderating from 4.9% the previous year. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims edged up to 218K in the week ending July 26, slightly above the prior week’s 217K but below forecasts of 224K. The four-week average fell by 3.5K to 221K, the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, and Continuing Jobless Claims remained unchanged at 1.946 million after a minor revision.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 31, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, NZD

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01:30 GMT
China – NBS Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.3
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
China’s state-driven manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, though the slight improvement hints at stabilization. A surprise above 50 would signal expansion for the first time in months, potentially boosting the yuan and global risk sentiment.

Volatility note: Past releases have triggered ~601 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, making this one of the most market-sensitive Chinese indicators.

22:45 GMT
New Zealand – Building Permits MoM
Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: -6.4%
Currency: NZD
Why it matters:
Building permits are a leading indicator of construction activity and housing demand. A rebound after last month’s slump suggests renewed momentum in the property sector, which could provide support for the kiwi dollar.

Volatility note: Historically, this release has produced ~21.2 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, a much milder but still tradable move compared to other NZD data.


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 1, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Building Permits MoM Prel
Forecast: -4.0% | Previous: 11.9%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Dwelling approvals are expected to fall sharply after June’s strong rebound. Because permits lead future construction activity, a weak reading could point to softer housing demand and weigh on the Australian dollar.

Volatility note: Past releases have generated ~24.4 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, suggesting moderate but tradable AUD reactions.

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01:45 GMT
China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 50.0 | Previous: 49.5
Currency: CNY
Why it matters:
The Caixin PMI, focused on smaller and private manufacturers, offers a clearer view of China’s domestic demand than the official NBS survey. A print above 50 would mark a shift back into expansion, supporting the yuan and boosting global risk sentiment. Another miss below 50, however, could reignite concerns over ongoing weakness in China’s industrial sector.

Volatility note: Historically, this release has generated ~113.6 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, making it one of the more market-sensitive Chinese indicators.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
The eurozone jobless rate remains at historically low levels, underscoring labor market resilience despite broader growth headwinds. While a steady print is unlikely to spark a major reaction, any unexpected rise would raise concerns over weakening economic momentum across the bloc.

Volatility note: Past releases have generated ~40.0 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, highlighting its potential to move EUR pairs when surprises occur.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 2, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Core inflation strips out volatile components and is the ECB’s preferred gauge for policy direction. A higher-than-expected print would raise bets on prolonged monetary tightening, supporting the euro.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate YoY Flash
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
The headline CPI measures overall price trends across the eurozone. A continued rise above 2% would keep inflation concerns alive and may influence ECB rate guidance.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate MoM Flash
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A positive monthly reading points to renewed cost pressures. Even small surprises here can sway expectations for ECB action.

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14:00 GMT
United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 48.2 | Previous: 48.0
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
U.S. manufacturing remains in contraction, though stability near 48 suggests a slower pace of decline. Traders will watch closely for movement in new orders and employment components. A rebound would lift USD, while further weakness may weigh on risk sentiment.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Slipped to 48 in July, Fifth Month of Contraction - 1 August, 2025​

In July 2025, U.S. manufacturing contracted for the fifth consecutive month as the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.0, down from 49.0 in June. Among the five key sub-indexes, only production remained in growth territory at 51.4, while new orders (47.1), employment (43.4), inventories (48.9), and supplier deliveries (49.3) all pointed to contraction. Employment weakness was particularly notable, with companies prioritizing headcount reductions amid fragile demand. Prices paid stayed high at 64.8, though easing from June’s 69.7, reflecting continued upward pressure from tariffs and raw material costs such as steel and aluminum.

Export orders (46.1) and imports (47.6) also contracted, signaling weaker global trade flows, while backlogs (46.8) fell for the 34th straight month. Respondents highlighted ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, slowing investment due to higher interest rates, and rising costs from supply chain adjustments. Notably, none of the six largest manufacturing industries reported growth, compared to four in June, with only a handful of smaller sectors (e.g., apparel, plastics, nonmetallic minerals) showing expansion. According to ISM, 79% of the sector’s GDP contracted in July, with 31% strongly contracting (PMI ≤45), underscoring broad-based weakness.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 4, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CHF, EUR, USD, CAD, JPY

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 4.8%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Household spending growth remains steady and is a key driver of Australia’s economic momentum. Stronger-than-expected data would reinforce confidence in domestic demand and support the Aussie dollar.

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$5.25B | Previous: A$5.36B
Currency: AUD
Why it matters:
Australia’s trade surplus, fueled by resource exports like LNG, iron ore, and coal, remains a critical pillar for growth. A wider surplus would provide AUD support, while narrowing could pressure sentiment.

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06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Switzerland – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: CHF
Market insight:
Swiss inflation remains subdued, well below levels seen globally. Persistent softness could keep the SNB dovish and weigh on CHF, though even small surprises often move the currency given Switzerland’s low inflation baseline.

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07:00 GMT
Switzerland – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: CHF
Quick take:
The Swiss labor market is historically tight. A steady reading keeps CHF stable, but a surprise rise could signal cracks in domestic demand.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 3.1%
Euro Area – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Eurozone retail activity is expected to slow, both annually and monthly. With consumption a critical driver for euro area growth, weak prints could weigh on the euro by reinforcing concerns about fading household demand.

---

12:15 GMT
United States – ADP Employment Change
Forecast: 65K | Previous: 104K
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
As a private payroll gauge, ADP often shapes expectations for Non-Farm Payrolls. A weaker figure could dampen USD sentiment ahead of Friday’s official labor report.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 232K | Previous: 229K
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Weekly claims remain close to historic lows. Stability signals a resilient labor market, but a surprise rise could trigger concerns over slowing employment momentum.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -C$6.1B | Previous: C$5.86B
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Canada’s trade balance has fluctuated between surpluses and deficits in recent years. A deeper-than-expected deficit may weigh on CAD, especially if energy export growth falters.

---

14:00 GMT
United States – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 50.7 | Previous: 50.1
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Services make up ~90% of U.S. economic activity. A reading just above 50 signals marginal expansion. Traders will focus on employment and new orders components for clues on broader momentum.

---

23:30 GMT
Japan – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.3%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Spending by Japanese households is slowly recovering. A stronger-than-expected figure would suggest improving domestic demand, a positive for yen sentiment and Japan’s fragile growth outlook.

How Markets Reacted to High-Impact Data​

​

GBPUSD Reaction to ISM Services PMI Release – 5 August 2025

In July, U.S. services sector activity weakened as the ISM Services PMI edged down to 50.1 from June’s 50.8, still narrowly signaling expansion. The New Orders Index slipped by one point to 50.3, while the Business Activity Index dropped 1.6 points to 52.6, and the Inventory Sentiment Index declined 3.9 points to 53.2. Employment remained a drag, falling further into contraction at 46.4. ISM Services Chair Steve Miller noted that July’s figures reflected slow growth, with respondents citing seasonal and weather disruptions, while the continued weakness in hiring and faster expansion of prices highlighted underlying concerns for the sector’s outlook.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 5, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, EUR, USD, CAD

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06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
UK consumer demand is losing pace, with annual sales growth cooling. A weaker print would reinforce concerns about slowing household spending and weigh on sterling.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.9%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
Monthly retail sales remain volatile, but a softer figure suggests households are tightening budgets under persistent inflation pressures.

---

06:00 GMT
Germany – Factory Orders MoM
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: -1.0%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
Factory orders are notoriously volatile but provide a forward-looking gauge of industrial activity. A rebound into positive territory would signal recovery in German manufacturing, lending support to the euro.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Steady wage growth keeps inflation pressures alive. Traders watch this closely as part of the Fed’s assessment of wage-price dynamics.
12:30 GMT
United States – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Unemployment remains historically low, but any unexpected rise could stoke concerns of softening labor conditions and weigh on the dollar.
12:30 GMT
United States – Non-Farm Payrolls
Forecast: 75K | Previous: 73K
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
The single most influential U.S. data release. A weak print would raise recession concerns and pressure the dollar, while a strong surprise could reinforce Fed hawkishness and boost USD across the board.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 7.0% | Previous: 6.9%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A slight uptick is expected, reflecting a labor market under strain. A stronger rise could weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Employment Change
Forecast: 30K | Previous: -40.8K
Currency: CAD
Quick take:
After last month’s contraction, markets expect a modest rebound. Traders will look at both headline jobs and composition (full-time vs part-time) for CAD direction.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: 12K | Previous: -51K
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Full-time employment carries more weight than part-time. A solid rebound would provide CAD support even if headline numbers are mixed.

---

14:00 GMT
Canada – Ivey PMI s.a
Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 55.8
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
The Ivey PMI offers a broad measure of Canadian business activity. A drop toward 50 suggests slowing demand, while resilience above 50 points to continued expansion.

How Economic Events Moved the Markets​

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings – August 1, 2025​

In early August 2025, the July U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, well below expectations, with sharp downward revisions to May and June dragging the three-month average job gains to 35,000 — less than one-third of last year’s pace. Economists said the weakness confirmed that the economy was slowing sharply despite Q2 GDP growth of 3.3%, which was largely boosted by a reversal in import surges linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. Analysts warned that softer job growth, weaker consumer spending, and falling factory orders raised recession risks, while Goldman Sachs projected growth of only 1% in the second half. The disappointing labor data pushed markets to price in Fed rate cuts, though officials remained cautious, and political tensions rose as Trump dismissed the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, calling the figures “rigged.” Despite the gloomy indicators, the White House insisted the economy was sound, but economists and investors noted heightened uncertainty and urged caution.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

Key Market Movers – September 9, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, USD

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00:30 GMT
Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 5.7%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Sentiment among households is expected to cool after August’s strong rebound. Since consumer confidence influences spending decisions, a weak reading may weigh on the Aussie dollar.

---

01:30 GMT
Australia – NAB Business Confidence
Forecast: 8 | Previous: 7
Currency: AUD
Why it matters:
This survey captures firms’ outlook on trading, profitability, and hiring. A further uptick in sentiment suggests businesses see improving conditions, which could provide AUD support if sustained.

---

06:45 GMT
France – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: 3.8%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
After a strong rebound in June, French industrial output is expected to contract again. A sharper-than-forecast decline would reinforce concerns about eurozone growth momentum, weighing on the euro.

---

14:00 GMT
United States – Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Forecast: -550K | Previous: -818K
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
This revision adjusts historical labor market data, often reshaping how past job growth is interpreted. A deep downward adjustment would highlight labor weakness, potentially pressuring the dollar and Fed confidence, while an upward revision could soften recession concerns.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 10, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, USD, GBP, JPY

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01:30 GMT
China – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: CNY
Quick take:
Monthly CPI growth is forecast to cool slightly after July’s uptick. Even small shifts here are closely watched, as they reveal the pulse of consumer demand and can ripple across global inflation sentiment.
01:30 GMT
China – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
Flat price growth risks slipping into outright deflation. Persistent weakness would raise alarm bells on domestic demand and likely pressure Beijing to step up stimulus measures, a scenario that tends to weigh on the yuan.
01:30 GMT
China – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: -3.0% | Previous: -3.6%
Currency: CNY
Why it matters:
Producer price deflation is expected to ease slightly, signaling potential stabilization in industrial costs. A better-than-expected rebound could support the yuan and lift risk sentiment across Asia.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – PPI YoY
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.3%
United States – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.9%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Producer price growth is expected to moderate after July’s surge. Any upside surprise would keep inflation pressures alive, strengthening the dollar as traders push back expectations of Fed easing.

---

23:01 GMT
United Kingdom – RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -13% | Previous: -13%
Currency: GBP
Why it matters:
The UK housing market remains stuck in decline, with surveyors uniformly reporting falling prices. Continued weakness underscores fragile household sentiment and could weigh further on sterling.

---

23:50 GMT
Japan – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
Japan – PPI YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: JPY
Quick take:
Producer prices are edging higher, hinting at persistent pipeline pressures. If this trend continues, it could filter into consumer inflation and bolster expectations that the BOJ may tighten policy further, supporting the yen.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. PPI & Initial Jobless Claims – August 14, 2025​

July’s U.S. inflation data showed a sharp 0.9% jump in producer prices, the largest since March 2022, fueling concerns that tariff-driven costs were feeding into the broader economy. While consumer inflation had appeared relatively contained, widespread PPI increases pointed to mounting price pressures that complicated the Fed’s path and cast doubt on a September rate cut. At the same time, the Trump administration expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and copper, measures officially framed as national security tools but increasingly used as bargaining chips in trade policy.

In labor markets, jobless claims for the week ending August 9 fell by 3,000 to 224,000, with the prior week revised up slightly. The four-week moving average ticked higher to 221,750, while the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3%. Continuing claims dropped by 15,000 to 1.95 million, suggesting labor conditions remained stable despite the inflation shock.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Heightened geopolitical tensions remain a key source of uncertainty for markets. Such developments can amplify volatility, alter risk appetite, and exert pressure on global equities, while also driving flows into safe-haven assets.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 11, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

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12:15 GMT
Euro Area – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
The ECB is expected to keep rates steady, but markets will parse the tone for clues on how long restrictive policy will remain. Even an unchanged decision can spark volatility if the statement hints at a policy shift.
12:15 GMT
Euro Area – ECB Deposit Facility Rate
Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.00%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
The deposit rate sets the floor for overnight borrowing costs. Steady levels suggest a cautious ECB, but any change would strongly impact euro funding conditions.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 3.1%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
Core inflation strips out food and energy, offering the clearest view of underlying price trends. If it runs hotter than expected, it may revive Fed hawkishness and boost the dollar.

12:30 GMT
United States – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
This is the overall Consumer Price Index (often called headline CPI), which includes all major spending categories such as food and energy. It has been edging higher, led by housing and services costs, and a stronger-than-expected print would signal sticky inflation — limiting the Fed’s room to cut rates and likely boosting the dollar.

12:30 GMT
United States – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Month-to-month changes provide the most immediate signal of inflation momentum. Stronger prints could trigger sharp USD moves as traders adjust Fed rate expectations.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
Stable but elevated core inflation would highlight persistent price pressures, shaping Fed policy into year-end.

12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 237K
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Jobless claims remain near cycle lows, signaling labor market resilience. Any unexpected spike, however, could weigh on the dollar as growth concerns rise.

---

12:45 GMT
Euro Area – ECB Press Conference
Currency: EUR
What’s at stake:
The press conference often drives bigger moves than the decision itself. Traders will watch Lagarde’s remarks for signals on growth risks, inflation persistence, and timing of future policy changes. Hawkish hints lift the euro, dovish tones weigh on it.

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This day features a double punch: ECB policy decisions + U.S. CPI—a combination that can move both EUR and USD pairs sharply. Expect elevated volatility around 12:15–12:45 GMT.

How Markets React to Critical Data​

​

U.S. CPI Release – August 12, 2025​

U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in July 2025, with the CPI increasing 0.2% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation posted its biggest gain in six months at 0.3%, lifting the annual core rate to 3.1%. The data, which came after weak job growth and sharp payroll revisions, fueled expectations of a possible Fed rate cut in September, though the central bank had held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% in July. The report was overshadowed by growing concerns over data quality as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hit by budget cuts and staffing reductions, suspended CPI data collection in several areas, forcing greater reliance on imputations that economists warned could add volatility. These issues were compounded by President Trump’s dismissal of BLS chief Erika McEntarfer earlier in the month amid political scrutiny of labor and inflation reporting.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical tensions often reshape market dynamics, fueling volatility, altering risk sentiment, and putting pressure on global equities. Developments over weekends can heighten uncertainty, with global events sometimes leading to sharp gaps when markets reopen

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 12, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, CAD, USD

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06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – GDP Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
GDP captures the monthly change in the value of goods and services produced. Slowing growth could reinforce concerns about weak momentum in the UK economy, pressuring the pound.

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
Industrial production represents about 20% of UK GDP, with manufacturing as the largest contributor. A contraction would raise red flags about economic resilience, particularly as oil, gas, and transport sectors weigh on output.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Building Permits Month-on-Month
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: -9.0%
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Building permits provide an early signal of construction and housing market trends. A strong rebound after last month’s steep drop could ease fears of slowdown and lend support to the Canadian dollar.

---

14:00 GMT
United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)
Forecast: 57.0 | Previous: 58.2
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Consumer sentiment reflects household views on financial conditions and the economic outlook. Confidence slipping further would point to cautious spending, weighing on growth prospects and potentially the dollar.

---

Friday’s data spotlight shines on the UK with GDP and industrial output at the open, followed by Canada’s construction gauge and U.S. consumer sentiment. Expect volatility in GBP crosses early, with CAD and USD in focus as North America takes over.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Michigan Release – Aug 15, 2025​

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined in August, falling to 58.6 from 61.7 in July, the University of Michigan reported. The drop, the first since April, came as inflation expectations worsened, with consumers anticipating prices to rise 4.9% over the next year and 3.9% over the next five to 10 years. Survey director Joanne Hsu said concerns about high prices and rising unemployment had resurfaced, with 62% of respondents expecting joblessness to increase. The gauge of buying conditions for durable goods fell to a one-year low, while a separate survey showed 58% of consumers planned to cut spending this year on items such as cars, household goods, and dining out. The current conditions index dropped to 60.9, and the expectations index slipped to 57.2, both weaker than economists forecast, highlighting growing consumer caution despite July’s rise in retail sales.

​

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical tensions often reshape market dynamics, fueling volatility, altering risk sentiment, and putting pressure on global equities. Developments over weekends can heighten uncertainty, with global events sometimes leading to sharp gaps when markets reopen

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 15, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, USD

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02:00 GMT
China – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
The surveyed urban unemployment rate is steady, suggesting labor market resilience. Any surprise uptick would raise growth concerns, while stability offers reassurance for the yuan.

02:00 GMT
China – Industrial Production Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.7%
Currency: CNY
Why it matters:
Industrial output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities slowed from July. Softer growth underscores pressure from weak global demand and could weigh on risk sentiment.

02:00 GMT
China – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 3.7%
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
Retail spending compares to the same month last year. A rebound from July’s weak pace points to stronger consumer demand, a supportive sign for domestic recovery and the yuan.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 10.0 | Previous: 11.9
Currency: USD
Quick take:
This survey of New York manufacturers tracks changes in orders, shipments, and hiring. A lower reading signals easing momentum, though staying above 0 still reflects expansion.

---

Monday begins with a China data trio—unemployment, industrial production, and retail sales—setting the tone for Asia’s session. Later, the Empire State survey offers the first glimpse into U.S. factory activity for September.

A Trader's Guide to High-Impact News Volatility​

China's Economic Pulse: Output, Retail, and Employment - 15 August, 2025​

China’s economy maintained steady growth momentum in July 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Industrial output rose 5.7% year-on-year, led by equipment manufacturing (+8.4%) and high-tech production (+9.3%), while services grew 5.8%, with strong gains in IT and finance. Retail sales climbed 3.7% year-on-year, supported by robust demand for appliances, furniture, and recreational goods, though monthly growth dipped slightly. Fixed asset investment increased 1.6% in the first seven months, with manufacturing and infrastructure strengthening, even as real estate investment fell 12%. Exports surged 8.0% and imports rose 4.8%, driving a 6.7% trade growth overall. Employment stayed broadly stable at 5.2% unemployment, while inflation was flat year-on-year and core CPI rose 0.8%, reflecting subdued consumer prices. Overall, officials highlighted resilience despite global headwinds and domestic challenges.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equities. Weekend developments add further uncertainty, often leading to sharp gaps when markets reopen. In the Middle East, Israel’s strike in Doha triggered a regional backlash ahead of Qatar’s extraordinary Arab–Islamic summit on September 14–15, 2025, with a foreign ministers’ preparatory meeting on Sunday. In Europe, Russia–Poland drone incidents, Belarus–Russia military drills near the Polish border, and the pause in Ukraine peace talks highlight growing instability. In Asia, China–Taiwan tensions remain elevated after Beijing’s Fujian carrier crossed the Taiwan Strait.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 16, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, EUR, USD, CAD, JPY

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06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.7% | Previous: 4.7%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
A steady unemployment rate indicates labor stability, but any surprise uptick could signal cracks in the job market and weigh on the pound.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Employment Change
Forecast: 150K | Previous: 238K
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
A slowdown in employment growth points to cooling demand in the labor market, easing wage pressures and influencing BoE rate expectations.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -1.3%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
A rebound suggests resilience in Europe’s industrial sector after July’s contraction. Weakness, however, would deepen fears of sluggish eurozone growth.
09:00 GMT
Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Forecast: 22.0 | Previous: 34.7
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Optimism among analysts is fading. A further decline could erode investor confidence and weigh on euro sentiment.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.9%
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
Retail sales are a key gauge of consumer-driven growth. A slowdown may flag weaker household demand, a negative for dollar sentiment.
12:30 GMT
United States – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Monthly changes offer the most immediate read on consumer momentum. Even small deviations from forecasts can trigger sharp USD moves.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.8% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: CAD
Why traders care:
Canada’s CPI basket is heavily weighted toward Shelter (30%) and Transportation (17%), followed by Food (16%) and Household Operations/Furnishings (15%). A stronger print would signal broad-based price pressures across housing, transport, and food, potentially pushing the BoC toward a more hawkish stance. Softer numbers would reinforce dovish expectations.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: CAD
Why traders care:
Core CPI excludes volatile items like food, fuel, and indirect taxes. As the BoC’s preferred measure, it offers a cleaner signal of underlying inflation. A steady rate suggests inflationary pressures are contained, limiting scope for immediate policy tightening.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: CAD
Why traders care:
Monthly CPI captures the most immediate price shifts. A decline signals easing momentum in consumer prices, reinforcing dovish expectations and potentially weakening the Canadian dollar.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CAD
Why traders care:
Core monthly inflation strips out volatility to track true price trends. A flat print underscores subdued pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term BoC rate hikes.

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13:15 GMT
United States – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
A return to growth would show renewed industrial momentum, a supportive signal for the dollar.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Exports Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.9% | Previous: -2.6%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
A softer contraction in exports suggests improving trade performance, which could provide near-term support for the yen.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Imports Year-on-Year
Forecast: -4.2% | Previous: -7.4%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
A decline in imports reflects weaker domestic demand but also relieves pressure on the trade deficit, often positive for JPY stability.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -¥450B | Previous: -¥118.4B
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
A wider deficit underscores the cost strain of imports over exports. Trade shocks here often spark sharp yen adjustments.

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Tuesday brings a packed schedule: UK jobs data at the open, Eurozone industrial activity and Germany’s ZEW sentiment mid-morning, followed by a heavy North American session with U.S. retail sales, Canadian inflation, and U.S. industrial output. The day closes with Japan’s trade report—likely to move JPY pairs in late trading.

​

From News to Price Action: A Guide to High-Impact Events​

​

Canada's Inflation Release Data - 19 August, 2025​

In July 2025, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-over-year, easing from 1.9% in June, driven mainly by gasoline prices plunging 16.1% after the federal carbon levy removal. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.5%, underscoring persistent pressures in other categories. Shelter costs accelerated 3.0% as rent climbed 5.1% and natural gas declines moderated, while grocery prices surged 3.4%, with coffee (+28.6%), cocoa (+11.8%), and fruit (+3.9%) seeing sharp gains from unfavorable global weather. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3% (0.1% seasonally adjusted), reflecting mixed forces of cheaper energy but higher food and housing costs. Regionally, six provinces recorded slower inflation, while Newfoundland and Labrador saw faster price growth due to electricity costs (+13.9%).

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Geopolitical Risks Update – Sept 15, 2025​

Markets opened the week under renewed pressure from fresh geopolitical shocks. Romania became the second NATO member after Poland to report a Russian drone incursion, highlighting the risks along NATO’s eastern flank as Russia and Belarus conduct joint drills. The collapse of Ukraine peace talks added to the tension, while the Doha Arab–Islamic summit convened today in response to Israeli strikes kept Middle East risks in focus. At the same time, U.S.–Venezuela tensions escalated after Washington expanded naval and air operations in the Caribbean following a strike on a Venezuelan vessel, straining ties despite recent sanctions relief. In Asia, China’s Fujian carrier transit through the Taiwan Strait underscored rising friction. Together, these developments reinforced safe-haven demand and volatility across oil, gold, and equities.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 17, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, USD, CAD, NZD, JPY

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06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
Core inflation strips out volatile components. A modest uptick would add pressure on the Bank of England to maintain tighter policy, keeping sterling supported.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.8%
Currency: GBP
Why it matters:
Annual inflation stability suggests price pressures are cooling. A surprise rebound would revive tightening bets; a dip supports easing.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: GBP
Market lens:
A monthly acceleration highlights renewed price momentum, which could weigh on consumer sentiment but support GBP if persistent.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.8%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
Core inflation softening reinforces the disinflation narrative, potentially reducing urgency for further BoE hikes.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Housing Starts Month-on-Month
Forecast: -3.4% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
A sharp pullback in new projects signals weakening construction demand, a potential drag on U.S. growth momentum.
12:30 GMT
United States – Building Permits Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: -2.2%
Currency: USD
Market read:
Permits serve as a leading indicator of housing activity. A rebound would show builders expect demand to stabilize despite higher rates.

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13:45 GMT
Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.75%
Currency: CAD
Analyst view:
A cut would mark further policy easing to support growth. The loonie could weaken if forward guidance signals dovish intent.

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18:00 GMT
United States – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.5%
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Markets expect another quarter-point cut. A surprise hold would strengthen USD sharply; a dovish tone supports risk assets.
18:30 GMT
United States – Fed Press Conference
Currency: USD
Snapshot:
Chair Powell’s guidance will shape expectations on the policy path. Hawkish remarks may cushion USD; dovish language could spur equities.

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22:45 GMT
New Zealand – GDP Growth Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.7%
Currency: NZD
Fast track:
Flat growth reflects ongoing external and domestic headwinds. Stability marks an improvement from contraction but signals fragile recovery.
22:45 GMT
New Zealand – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-Quarter
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0.8%
Currency: NZD
Takeaway:
A quarterly slip shows renewed weakness in activity. Risk-sensitive NZD may face pressure if negative momentum persists.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.9% | Previous: 7.6%
Currency: JPY
Investor focus:
Still strong but slowing growth in capital spending reflects businesses’ caution amid global demand uncertainty.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: -1.3% | Previous: 3.0%
Currency: JPY
Fast view:
A decline after strong July gains points to volatility in investment cycles. JPY impact depends on forward demand signals.

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Wednesday brings a heavy slate: UK inflation data first thing, then U.S. housing numbers, Canada’s BoC decision, and the pivotal Fed announcement with Powell’s press conference. The day wraps with New Zealand GDP and Japan machinery orders—making for a global volatility storm across majors.

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From Announcement to Action: How Key News Moves the Markets​

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U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 30 July, 2025​

On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, citing moderating growth in the first half of the year, a still-solid labor market, and inflation that remained somewhat above target. Chair Jerome Powell said policy was “modestly restrictive” and that the Fed would assess two additional rounds of jobs and inflation data before considering a move toward a more neutral stance. He noted GDP rose 1.2% in H1 2025 (with a volatile 3% Q2), wages cooled, services inflation eased, and tariffs were lifting some goods prices, nudging near-term inflation expectations while longer-term measures stayed anchored. The Fed reaffirmed balance-sheet runoff, flagged weak housing and slower consumer spending, and continued its five-year framework review. The decision passed with dissents from Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who favored a 25 bp cut; Governor Adriana D. Kugler was absent.

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Market Note: Geopolitical Risk - September 15-16, 2025
Global tensions escalated across multiple regions. In the South China Sea, China’s Coast Guard fired water cannons at Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal, prompting sharp denials from Manila and renewed disputes over sovereignty. In the Caribbean, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a second strike on a Venezuelan vessel accused of drug trafficking, killing three and drawing condemnation from Nicolás Maduro alongside legal questions in Washington. In Europe, NATO forces scrambled as Russian drones breached Polish and Romanian airspace, while the UK deployed Typhoon jets to Poland under the new “Eastern Sentry” mission, reinforcing the alliance’s eastern flank. In the Middle East, Israel launched a ground offensive into Gaza City, marking the main phase of its campaign against Hamas, even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to court in Tel Aviv to face corruption charges — becoming the first sitting Israeli leader to stand trial and adding further political strain to a region already on edge.


Market Impact: Oil prices edged higher as traders assessed risks to global supply, while gold climbed to new highs on safe-haven demand and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 18, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, USD, JPY

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Employment Change
Forecast: 15K | Previous: 24.5K
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Job growth slowdown could temper optimism around Australia’s labor market strength, weighing slightly on the Aussie if confirmed.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: AUD
Why it matters:
A rise in unemployment signals cooling labor conditions. Even a minor uptick could pressure AUD as traders reassess growth resilience.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: -10K | Previous: 60.5K
Currency: AUD
Market lens:
A swing into contraction for full-time positions suggests softer demand for stable jobs, highlighting fragility beneath headline employment numbers.

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11:00 GMT
United Kingdom – BoE Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 4.0%
Currency: GBP
Trading angle:
Markets expect a hold. Any shift in tone from policymakers on inflation risks could sway GBP sharply.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 8 | Previous: -0.3
Currency: USD
Market read:
A return to positive territory signals manufacturing recovery momentum. Sustained strength would support USD and risk sentiment.
12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 250K | Previous: 263K
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
Fewer claims suggest labor demand remains steady. Persistent declines reinforce confidence in U.S. economic resilience.

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14:00 GMT
United States – CB Leading Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Another decline underscores slowing forward-looking indicators. Sustained weakness may feed recession concerns and weigh on USD.

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23:30 GMT
Japan – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 3.1%
Currency: JPY
Snapshot:
Core inflation cooling highlights progress in moderating price pressures, though still above the BoJ’s target.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: JPY
Fast track:
A mild monthly gain shows inflation momentum persisting, keeping policy watchers attentive.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 3.1%
Currency: JPY
Takeaway:
Annual inflation easing reflects progress toward stability, but a sustained downtrend would affect BoJ’s cautious stance.

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Thursday kicks off with Australia’s labor market figures, a key driver for AUD. The spotlight then shifts to the Bank of England decision, followed by a heavy U.S. data slate — Philly Fed, jobless claims, and the leading index. Japan closes the session with inflation data, shaping JPY sentiment into Friday’s trade.

Beyond the Headline: How Markets Digest and React to Data​

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BoE Interest Rate Decision and Governor Bailey’s Remarks – August 7, 2025​

The Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4% after a narrow 5–4 vote by its Monetary Policy Committee, marking its fifth reduction since the 2024 general election. Policymakers weighed stubborn inflation, which rose to 3.6% in June, against weakening growth and a cooling labor market, ultimately opting for a cautious 25-basis-point cut. Governor Andrew Bailey described the decision as a “finely balanced” one, stressing the need for a gradual approach, while economists remained divided on whether rates would fall further this year. The pound rose 0.5% against the dollar following the announcement. At his press conference, Bailey emphasized that policy was still restrictive and on a downward path, but cautioned against cutting rates too quickly, warning that second-round effects from higher food and energy prices could delay a return to target inflation.

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Market Note: Geopolitical Risk – September 16–17, 2025
Global tensions persisted across multiple regions. In the Arctic, NATO allies joined Denmark’s Arctic Light 2025 exercises in Greenland, signaling pushback against Russia’s military buildup and growing U.S. interest in Arctic security. In the South China Sea, the Philippines and the UK opened talks on a Visiting Forces Agreement, highlighting Manila’s push for stronger alliances as maritime disputes with Beijing intensify. In Asia-Pacific, China unveiled its new “Guam Killer” missile in a military parade, heightening U.S. concerns about the island’s role in a Taiwan conflict.


Market Impact: Oil prices stayed firm on fears of Russian supply disruptions and Middle East instability, while gold extended gains above $3,700/oz as investors sought safe havens. The U.S. dollar weakened as traders positioned for further Fed Funds Rate cuts, with geopolitical risks reinforcing expectations that the Fed may lean dovish despite lingering inflation pressures.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.