🧩News Recap & Tomorrow’s Outlook

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 22, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CAD, USD

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12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales MoM Prel
Forecast: 1.3% | Previous: -1.1%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A rebound in monthly retail sales would mark a sharp turnaround from last month’s contraction. Stronger spending could lift the Canadian dollar as traders price in firmer domestic demand.

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12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 4.9%
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Annual growth in retail sales reflects the strength of consumer demand. A sustained increase signals resilience in Canada’s economy and can reinforce CAD momentum.

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14:00 GMT
United States – Fed Chair Powell Speech
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
Powell’s remarks often set the tone for monetary policy expectations. Any hawkish hints about inflation risks could strengthen the dollar, while dovish language may trigger a softer USD reaction.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 24, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: NZD

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22:45 GMT
New Zealand – Retail Sales YoY Q2
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: NZD
Market insight:
A modest pickup in annual retail sales suggests gradual improvement in consumer demand. Stronger-than-expected growth could support the New Zealand dollar by signaling healthier household spending trends.

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High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 25, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

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08:00 GMT
Germany – Ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 87.0 | Previous: 88.6
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
This key sentiment survey covers thousands of firms across sectors. A weaker reading may reinforce concerns about slowing eurozone growth and weigh on the euro.

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14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales MoM
Forecast: -1.1% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
Housing is a sensitive gauge of consumer demand. A contraction in new home sales momentum could signal affordability strains and soften growth outlook.

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14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales
Forecast: 620K | Previous: 627K
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
New home sales ripple through the economy — from mortgages to furnishings. A dip could weigh on USD if it signals housing market weakness.

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14:30 GMT
United States – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 0.2 | Previous: 0.9
Currency: USD
Quick take:
As a regional factory gauge, this index can foreshadow national manufacturing trends. A near-flat reading suggests limited momentum in the industrial sector.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Data Mixed: Jobless Claims Fall, PMI Rises, Housing Sales Disappoint — July 24, 2025​

The latest U.S. data painted a mixed economic picture, as jobless claims fell to a three-month low of 217,000, highlighting labor market stability, while July’s Composite PMI rose to 54.6, its strongest since December, with services expanding but manufacturing slipping into contraction. Tariff-driven price pressures underscored inflation risks, giving the Fed little incentive to ease policy despite political calls for cuts. Meanwhile, new home sales came in weaker at 627,000 versus 690,000 expected, which briefly lifted EUR/USD to 1.1789 before the dollar regained strength, driving the pair down to 1.1735 as the market leaned on broader signs of U.S. resilience.

EURUSD spiked to 1.17888 after weaker-than-expected U.S. New Home Sales (627K vs 690K forecast), but the move quickly faded. Earlier in the day, the dollar was supported by stronger Jobless Claims (217K, 3-month low) and resilient PMI data — Composite PMI Flash 55.2, Services 55.2, Manufacturing 49.5. These reinforced underlying USD strength, capping the euro’s upside. The pair reversed from 1.17712 → 1.17355, highlighting a clean short setup on fading housing momentum against broad USD support.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 26, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, USD

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01:30 GMT
Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
The minutes provide a detailed look at the RBA’s policy debate. Any hawkish tone on inflation could fuel AUD strength, while cautious wording may weigh on the currency.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Durable Goods Orders MoM (July)
Forecast: -2.5% | Previous: -9.3%
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
Durable goods reflect business and consumer demand for long-lasting items. Another decline would highlight industrial weakness, potentially pressuring the dollar.

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14:00 GMT
United States – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)
Forecast: -19 | Previous: -20
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Still deep in negative territory, this regional gauge signals continued strain in factory activity. Any improvement, however small, could offer a short-term boost to USD.

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14:00 GMT
United States – CB Consumer Confidence (August)
Forecast: 96.0 | Previous: 97.2
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Confidence levels give an early read on household spending trends. A further dip may stoke concerns over consumer resilience, while a stronger print would support the dollar.

Market Response to Key Economic Events​

GBPUSD Reaction – U.S. Durable Goods Data (July 25, 2025)​

On July 25, 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June to $311.8 billion, reversing part of May’s sharp 16.5% gain. The decline was driven by a 22.4% drop in transportation equipment orders, while excluding transportation, orders edged up 0.2%. Despite the weak headline, underlying momentum showed resilience: shipments rose 0.5%, marking a seventh straight monthly gain, and unfilled orders increased 1.0% to $1.47 trillion, led by transportation equipment. Inventories also rose for the ninth consecutive month, up 0.2% to $588.6 billion, with machinery contributing the most.

Post-release of Durable Goods Orders m/m (–9.3%) and Core Durable Goods Orders ex-transport m/m (+0.2%), GBPUSD moved lower despite the soft headline. The pair opened at 1.34453 and dropped to a post-release low of 1.34166, showing USD strength. Markets largely discounted the headline drop as transportation volatility drove the decline, while shipments and unfilled orders pointed to underlying resilience. Combined with reduced Fed rate-cut expectations and a risk-off tone, investors favored the dollar as a safe haven, keeping GBP under pressure.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 27, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Monthly CPI Indicator (July)
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
The monthly CPI offers an early snapshot of inflation trends. A stronger reading could fuel expectations of RBA tightening, giving the Aussie dollar a lift.

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06:00 GMT
Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence (September)
Forecast: -21.3 | Previous: -21.5
Currency: EUR
Trading takeaway:
Still deeply negative, confidence remains weak. Any upside surprise, however small, could improve sentiment toward the euro by signaling a potential consumer rebound.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

AUDUSD Price Reaction – Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator (July 30, 2025)​

Australia’s inflation cooled further in mid-2025, with second-quarter CPI falling to 2.1% year-on-year, its lowest since March 2021 and below expectations, while quarterly inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.9% in Q1. The June monthly CPI also eased to 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in May, with food, alcohol, tobacco, and housing driving gains while transport costs fell. Underlying measures softened, with trimmed mean inflation slipping to 2.1% from 2.4%. The weaker readings reinforced expectations of an RBA rate cut in August, with analysts noting rising unemployment and slower GDP growth, and markets projecting rates could fall to 2.85% by mid-2026.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 28, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, USD, JPY

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07:00 GMT
Switzerland – GDP Growth Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.3% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: CHF
Market insight:
Growth in one of the world’s wealthiest economies looks to be cooling. With Switzerland’s strength rooted in pharmaceuticals, hi-tech, and banking, a slowdown could dent confidence and weigh on the franc.

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12:30 GMT
United States – GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
From contraction to a sharp rebound — this print could reshape market sentiment. Strong GDP would reinforce the U.S. growth story, bolster Fed confidence, and underpin dollar strength.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 237K | Previous: 235K
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Still near historic lows, weekly claims continue to showcase labor market resilience. Any upside surprise could quickly shift USD direction as traders reassess Fed outlook.

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23:30 GMT
Japan – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
Currency: JPY
Quick take:
Japan’s job market remains one of the tightest globally. A steady reading keeps yen direction muted, but a drop would add fuel to expectations of stronger consumer demand.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Household demand appears to be slowing after a strong June. Any miss here could deepen worries over domestic consumption — a key growth pillar for Japan.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
Even with monthly softness, annual sales are improving. Stronger consumer spending would support growth momentum and lend underlying strength to the yen.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: 2.1%
Currency: JPY
What’s at stake:
A sharp swing from strong June output to contraction would highlight fragile manufacturing conditions. Markets will be alert — this release often sets the tone for yen movement.

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How Markets React to Major Economic Announcements​

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U.S. GDP Final Q1 & Jobless Claims Data – June 26, 2025​

On June 26, 2025, U.S. labor market data pointed to softening conditions as weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since 2021, signaling hiring struggles. Economists warned that President Trump’s tariffs were creating uncertainty, making businesses reluctant to expand payrolls, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.3% in June. At the same time, first-quarter GDP was revised down to a 0.5% contraction from an earlier 0.2% estimate, reflecting weaker consumer spending, while the goods trade deficit widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion on falling exports. Durable goods orders rebounded 16.4% in May, driven by a 230% surge in commercial aircraft, though underlying business spending remained constrained by tariff uncertainty. Despite softening data, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, signaling caution as inflation risks from tariffs persisted.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 29, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, EUR, CHF, USD, CAD

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05:00 GMT
Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 34.2 | Previous: 33.7
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Confidence remains weak, but even small improvements could support yen sentiment by hinting at better household demand.

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06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 4.9%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
Annual sales growth is cooling. A softer print could weigh on the euro as it signals pressure on domestic demand.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A negative monthly reading would reinforce concerns of slowing consumption in Europe’s largest economy.

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06:45 GMT
France – PPI YoY
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.2%
France – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Producer prices are turning higher again. If confirmed, inflation pressures may begin re-emerging in the French economy.
06:45 GMT
France – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 1.0%
France – Inflation Rate MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: EUR
Why traders care:
Signs of stronger inflation could lift ECB policy expectations and provide support for the euro.

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07:55 GMT
Germany – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A steady jobless rate signals stability, but traders will watch closely for any surprise rise that could weigh on the euro.

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12:00 GMT
Germany – Inflation Rate YoY Prel
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.0%
Germany – Inflation Rate MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: EUR
Market movers:
Germany’s inflation sets the tone for eurozone CPI. Even small deviations here can move EUR pairs sharply.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Income MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Steady income growth supports spending but may not shift Fed expectations without surprises.
12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Spending MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
Consumer spending drives nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Stable growth keeps momentum intact.
12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
United States – Core PCE Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
What’s at stake:
As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE will be watched closely. A hotter print could quickly strengthen the dollar.

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12:30 GMT
Canada – GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.5%
Canada – GDP Growth Rate Annualized
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 2.2%
Canada – GDP MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
Canada’s economy is slowing sharply. Weak growth could weigh on CAD, though a positive monthly print may soften the blow.

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13:45 GMT
United States – Chicago PMI
Forecast: 46.0 | Previous: 47.1
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Still below 50, regional manufacturing remains in contraction. A deeper fall could drag on sentiment ahead of ISM next week.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Personal Income, Spending & Jobless Claims – July 31, 2025​

In June 2025, U.S. personal income rose by $71.4 billion, or 0.3%, while disposable personal income increased $61.0 billion, also 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures climbed $69.9 billion, with $40.1 billion spent on services and $29.9 billion on goods. The personal saving rate stood at 4.5% as savings totaled $1.01 trillion. The PCE price index advanced 0.3% from the previous month and 2.6% from a year earlier, while the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually. Separately, compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% in the second quarter and 3.6% year over year, with wages and salaries up 1.0% in Q2 and 3.6% annually. Benefit costs rose 0.7% in Q2 and 3.5% over the year, with union workers seeing stronger wage gains than non-union counterparts. State and local government workers recorded a 4.0% rise in compensation, moderating from 4.9% the previous year. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims edged up to 218K in the week ending July 26, slightly above the prior week’s 217K but below forecasts of 224K. The four-week average fell by 3.5K to 221K, the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, and Continuing Jobless Claims remained unchanged at 1.946 million after a minor revision.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 31, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, NZD

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01:30 GMT
China – NBS Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.3
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
China’s state-driven manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, though the slight improvement hints at stabilization. A surprise above 50 would signal expansion for the first time in months, potentially boosting the yuan and global risk sentiment.

Volatility note: Past releases have triggered ~601 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, making this one of the most market-sensitive Chinese indicators.

22:45 GMT
New Zealand – Building Permits MoM
Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: -6.4%
Currency: NZD
Why it matters:
Building permits are a leading indicator of construction activity and housing demand. A rebound after last month’s slump suggests renewed momentum in the property sector, which could provide support for the kiwi dollar.

Volatility note: Historically, this release has produced ~21.2 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, a much milder but still tradable move compared to other NZD data.


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 1, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Building Permits MoM Prel
Forecast: -4.0% | Previous: 11.9%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Dwelling approvals are expected to fall sharply after June’s strong rebound. Because permits lead future construction activity, a weak reading could point to softer housing demand and weigh on the Australian dollar.

Volatility note: Past releases have generated ~24.4 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, suggesting moderate but tradable AUD reactions.

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01:45 GMT
China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 50.0 | Previous: 49.5
Currency: CNY
Why it matters:
The Caixin PMI, focused on smaller and private manufacturers, offers a clearer view of China’s domestic demand than the official NBS survey. A print above 50 would mark a shift back into expansion, supporting the yuan and boosting global risk sentiment. Another miss below 50, however, could reignite concerns over ongoing weakness in China’s industrial sector.

Volatility note: Historically, this release has generated ~113.6 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, making it one of the more market-sensitive Chinese indicators.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
The eurozone jobless rate remains at historically low levels, underscoring labor market resilience despite broader growth headwinds. While a steady print is unlikely to spark a major reaction, any unexpected rise would raise concerns over weakening economic momentum across the bloc.

Volatility note: Past releases have generated ~40.0 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, highlighting its potential to move EUR pairs when surprises occur.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.