High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 19, 2025
Sunday’s late-session release featured only one high-impact event — New Zealand’s quarterly inflation data. As a key gauge of price pressures, the report provided critical insight into domestic demand, cost dynamics, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook heading into the final quarter of 2025.Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.
Timeline: GMT | 
Focused Currency: NZD 21:45 GMT
New Zealand – Inflation Rate Year-on-YearForecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: NZD
Why Traders Care:Inflation is the primary indicator guiding RBNZ monetary policy decisions. A stable reading near target suggests controlled price growth, while any deviation can shift expectations for future rate adjustments.
Focus centred on New Zealand’s inflation path, as markets assessed whether stable price levels would keep the RBNZ comfortable holding rates steady or revive expectations of policy changes in the months ahead. High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 20, 2025
Monday’s session featured only high-impact releases across major economies, led by China’s GDP, retail, and industrial data, followed by inflation indicators from Germany and Canada, and the U.S. Leading Index. Together, these figures provided a global snapshot of economic growth, price pressures, and early signals for market direction at the start of the week.Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.
Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, EUR, CAD, USD 02:00 GMT
China – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-QuarterForecast: 0.9% | Previous: 1.1%
Currency: CNY Why Traders Care:Quarterly GDP growth offers the most direct measure of China’s economic momentum. A slowdown would underscore weakening industrial output and exports, while resilience supports regional and global risk sentiment.
02:00 GMT China – GDP Growth Rate Year-on-YearForecast: 4.9% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: CNY
Market lens:Annual growth reflects broader economic performance. A softer reading reinforces expectations for additional policy support, while stronger data could ease stimulus pressure.
02:00 GMT China – Industrial Production Year-on-YearForecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: CNY
Market mover:Industrial activity remains a cornerstone of China’s economy. Consistent production growth suggests steady manufacturing demand despite global trade headwinds.
02:00 GMT China – Retail Sales Year-on-YearForecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.4%
Currency: CNY Why Traders Care:Retail performance highlights consumer confidence and domestic demand strength. A slowdown may signal spending fatigue and weigh on growth expectations.
02:00 GMT China – Unemployment RateForecast: 5.2% | Previous: 5.3%
Currency: CNY Market lens:A modest improvement in employment conditions indicates gradual stabilization, supporting the outlook for household consumption.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index Month-on-MonthForecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:Easing producer price declines suggest early signs of cost stabilization. Persistent weakness, however, reinforces the eurozone’s disinflation trend.
06:00 GMT Germany – Producer Price Index Year-on-YearForecast: -1.9% | Previous: -2.2%
Currency: EUR Why Traders Care:Falling producer prices reflect subdued manufacturing demand and low inflation pressures — key factors shaping ECB rate expectations.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Year-on-YearForecast: 4.6% | Previous: 4.0%
Currency: CAD Market mover:Rising producer prices indicate higher input costs, potentially signaling inflation persistence and shaping the Bank of Canada’s rate stance.
12:30 GMT Canada – Producer Price Index Month-on-MonthForecast: -0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
Currency: CAD Market lens:Monthly price moderation could ease inflationary pressure, influencing short-term expectations for policy adjustments.
14:00 GMT
United States – CB Leading Index Month-on-MonthForecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD Why Traders Care:This composite index aggregates ten major indicators to signal turning points in the U.S. economy. Consecutive declines often foreshadow slower growth or potential contraction periods.
Monday’s calendar is set to open the week with a heavy focus on China’s economic trajectory and global price trends. Market sentiment will hinge on whether the data signal resilience or reveal mounting headwinds for the world’s major economies.The chart displays USD/CAD on a 5-minute scale after Canada’s PPI release on September 22, 2025, isolating the data-driven move and ensuing volatility to show how a single print can quickly shift sentiment and the CAD.
Canada's PPI YoY and PPI MoM Release - 22 September, 2025
In August 2025, Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose 0.5% m/m and 4.0% y/y as higher prices for chemicals, meat/fish/dairy (+1.9% led by beef +5.2% and chicken +2.1% on strong demand and tight supply), motorized vehicles, and primary non-ferrous metals (+1.0% on gold +1.6% and silver +1.9%) outweighed a 1.3% drop in energy and petroleum (crude −3.9%; refined −1.5%; diesel −6.0% while gasoline +1.8% on summer demand); IPPI ex-energy increased 0.7%. Year over year, gains were driven by precious metals (+36.3%), beef (+28.9%), and poultry (+18.4%), partly offset by finished gasoline (−5.4% on base effects). The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) fell 0.6% m/m (ex-crude energy +0.9%) as crude energy slid 3.7% amid OPEC+ supply concerns, while metal ores rose 2.0% (gold/silver ores +2.1%, twelfth monthly gain) and crop products fell 1.7% on canola (−6.4%) after Chinese tariffs. Year over year, the RMPI rose 3.2% (ex-crude energy +15.5%), led by precious-metal ores (+37.0%) and cattle/calves (+19.9%), with declines in conventional (−16.2%) and synthetic crude (−16.6%) tempering the increase.Profit Study
The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.At the time of this release, USD/CAD traded at 1.38115
- At an open price of 1.38115, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
- At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.
For example, entering a long at Point A (1.38115) and closing at Point C (1.38316) captured 20.1 pips, equivalent to $145.52 USD profit on one standard lot.
Alternatively, entering long at Point B (1.37931) and closing at Point C (1.38316) captured 38.5 pips, equivalent to $278.74 USD profit on one standard lot.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
Trading angle:
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Thursday’s calendar spans key economic indicators from four major economies. Canadian retail sales provide insight into consumer strength heading into Q4, while U.S. existing home sales test housing market resilience amid tight credit conditions. Later, Australian flash PMIs offer a glimpse into private sector performance, followed by Japanese inflation readings that may influence monetary expectations.
Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Japan – Inflation Rate YoY
Fast track:
Monday’s session offers a concise but pivotal set of releases, with a focus on business sentiment in Germany and durable goods trends in the U.S. The Ifo survey provides an updated gauge of confidence across the EU’s largest economy, while U.S. manufacturing and order flows could shape expectations for Q4 activity.
