2023 Commodities Forecast by Solidecn.com


Quadruple Bottom on Oil?

Crude oil continues its declines in another week of June. In addition, new Goldman Sachs forecasts for crude have emerged. GS is now pointing to a level of $86 per barrel for Brent at the end of 2023, against a previous forecast of $95 per barrel. Why the forecast cut?​
  • Higher production from Russia and Iran offsets the impact of an additional cut from Saudi Arabia​
  • The market should be balanced after the AS cut, but there will not be a deficit​
  • GS expects higher production growth this year and next year from countries outside of key OPEC members​
  • Uncertainty about China​
Technically, however, there is a potential signal of a quadruple bottom. The price would still have to fall a few tens of cents, but this is a very important test for oil. Usually the fourth test of support leads to a breakout, so the emergence of very negative news on, for example, demand from China or the continuation of hikes by the Fed could lead to a breakout from the consolidation. On the other hand, if oil survives this test, it seems that the trend should eventually reverse and lead to a breakout to price ranges, probably to levels of $80-90 per barrel.


The recent lows associated with the triple/quadruple bottom formation are near $71.5 per barrel. If a rebound from this area were successful, then, with a breakout of the neckline near $78 per barrel, the range of the formation would point to around $85 per barrel, where the retracement of 23.6 currently holds.​


Wall Street futures are expected to open higher at the beginning of the new week, with investors eagerly awaiting important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates later in the week. The US500 index futures rise a 0.3% increase, reaching 4320 points, while the US100 (NASDAQ 100) trades 0.5% higher at 14630 points, which is close to this year's all-time high of 14680 points.

The financial markets are currently dominated by a positive sentiment, as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve to announce a pause in their cycle of interest rate hikes after a string of 10 consecutive increases. This sentiment has led to an appreciation of higher-risk equities, while the performance of major currencies has caused the dollar index to decline. The US100 (NASDAQ 100) has experienced modest gains, indicating a potential continuation of the bull market trend.


The US100 index, currently priced at 14630 points, is displaying a strong upward trend, suggesting a robust bullish momentum. This is supported by the bullish signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, with higher highs indicating a strong upward movement. The next potential resistance zone for the US100 index may be around 15000 points. However, if the price fails to reach this level a retracement to around 14300 points or even further down to 14000 points is possible.​


Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a range of 25,300 to 26,000. The key support level is at 25,300, which has shown significant reactions in the past few months. If the bullish momentum fails to sustain this level, a potential further decline may be expected.



Cryptocurrency RIPPLE gains 5% as fintech lawyers await to get access to internal SEC correspondence in court later today. Ripple has been fighting the SEC for nearly 2 years according to which the cryptocurrency is a security, and the company behind it has committed illegal sales. The cryptocurrency has proved surprisingly resilient to the crypto crisis of recent days.​
  • The dossier due to arrive in court today is expected to include messages exchanged by SEC members after former director Hinman's speech. The one contrary to Gensler's position indicated that cryptocurrencies could be commodities. Potentially inconsistent comments could undermine the SEC's authority and increase Ripple's chances of winning in court.​
  • The Federal Trade Commission (CFTC) has long been in dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over whether cryptocurrencies should be considered commodities or securities. Over the years, there has still been no consistent position on the issue. This regulatory mess could be exploited by lawyers;​

A look at the chart

In recent weeks, which have been very weak for crypto, the price of Ripple has managed to rise unexpectedly. The chart below shows the divergence between Binancecoin (yellow chart) testing the December minima, and Ripple - this one has been gaining since late May. In contrast to Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies. The market is taking a positive view of the chances of winning in court, with the judge allowing evidence of the Commission's internal correspondences into the case despite the SEC's protest.


RIPPLE is climbing in the vicinity of 0.56 USD, and potentially breaking the psychological resistance of previous peaks at 0.57 USD may open the way to 0.68USD where the price may encounter the first significant resistance (past price action).​

Gold - Chart of the Day​

Gold traded lower yesterday after the publication of CPI data, with its price falling to $1941 per ounce. Today, gold traded calmly as investors await the Fed's interest rate decision later today. While many expect the rates to remain unchanged, some anticipate a more hawkish stance given the high core CPI, prompting some to exit the gold market. This has added to the caution in the market, causing a slide in gold prices.


From a technical standpoint, gold is still viewed as being in a bullish uptrend channel, suggesting also a potential upward movement in the medium time frame. However, recent price action has been rejected several times from a short-term descending trend line, suggesting that gold might be at a crucial turning point. Support is around the 1920 - 1940 area, where the 100-day SMA currently lies. A break below these levels could unfold further bearish momentum. On the upside, if gold can manage to move above the 2000 level, it could suggest a resumption of bullish momentum.

Bitcoin Below $25,000

The mood of the cryptocurrency market is weak today, with Bitcoin starting to fall after yesterday's Fed decision and slipping from the $26,000 level to $24,800. Unlike the Nasdaq, crypto was unable to make up for the sell-off during Jerome Powell's conference.

Industry portals also point out that Binance's exchange-traded security fund-the so-called SAFU-has suffered significant losses because Binancecoin (BNB) and Bitcoin were the main components of its reserves-that have recently fallen sharply (especially BNB). Since the beginning of June, the value of SAFU was said to have fallen from $950 million to $861 million. The fund is to be used only in extreme situations for the exchange according to WSJ sources the exchange makes sure that its value is at an all-time high. Binancecoin is also losing today and has not been able to stay above $240.


Investors continue to withdraw their funds from the Binance exchange due to regulatory uncertainty and concerns about systemic risk. Since the Fed announcement, nearly one-fifth of the reserves in stablecoins (cryptocurrencies tracking mainly USD, used for purchases) have disappeared from the exchange.


The Bitcoin sell-side risk index is near all-time lows now. The indicator calculates the market's unrealized gains and losses to the so-called realized asset size, i.e. the prices investors paid for the BTC they bought. Relative to the total realized value, the total value of gains and losses is $391 billion, which is historically very low. The low level of the ratio has historically occurred during periods of depleting supply pressure and total market abandonment. In addition, Glassnode reported that the indicator was supported by a low reading of the volume index - RVT.


BITCOIN, D1 interval. The price has fallen below $25,000 and if the level is not recovered relatively quickly a test of the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, around $21,300, will not be ruled out - in the vicinity of these runs also the so-called Realized Price average, i.e. the average of purchases of all BTC since the beginning of the trading history - this average has served as an important trend indicator in many previous cycles.​


US100 index, currently trading at 15354 points, has shown strong bullish momentum by breaking a significant resistance level at 15220 points seamlessly. This upward movement also led to a break above the upward trending channel, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend. The next significant resistance level is around 15654 points. However, traders should be cautious as the recent rally may trigger profit-taking activities. In that case the index may decline to the last consolidation zone between 14500-14600 points.



Brent (OIL) launched new week's trading with a bearish price gap as new on rising Iranian exports as well as cuts to Chinese growth forecasts created downward pressure on prices. OIL tested 200-period moving average at H4 interval this morning (purple line) but bulls managed to defend the area.



USD strengthening and ETF outflows pressure silver prices

Silver is trading over 2% lower today, with the move being driven by significant strengthening of the US dollar triggered by better-than-expected US housing market data for May. Solid data makes the market think that another rate hike may be looming in July, given recent hawkishness of the Federal Reserve.

Apart from the strong US dollar and high US yields, we are also observing ETFs selling out their gold holdings. Silver ETFs sold more than 650 thousand ounces of silver yesterday while gold ETFs sold almost 30 thousand gold ounces, what was the fifteenth consecutive day of ETF sales. ETF sold almost 1% of their total silver holdings since the beginning of the year.


From a technical point of view, we can see that silver price has been pulling back since June 9, 2023 when price tested 50% retracement and 50-session moving average. Local lows from June 5 and June 15, which can be found slightly below 23.6% retracement, are being tested today. Next important supports in-line can be found in the $22.60 area, or local lows from May 25, 2023, as well as in $22.20 area, marked with 200-session moving average. Divergence with EURUSD points to silver being excessively oversold but it should be said that silver tends to be an underperformer at times precious metals struggle.​

Bitcoin near 29,000

"Bulls" return to crypto. The market is reacting to more moves by financial institutions📈

The cryptocurrency market has had some really good days. Fear over the Binance exchange and regulations has given way to positive sentiment due to the recent actions of investment funds. It's thanks to them that the market is reassured that cryptocurrencies 'won't disappear' from Western financial markets, and Bitcoin can finally count on interest from institutions. As a result, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to break through $29,000 today.
  • Following news of a Bitcoin Trust ETF from BlackRock and a similar fund application from Fidelity Investments, investors were optimistic about Deutsche Bank's application to provide digital trust services.​
  • In the evening, the market also reacted to news of the opening in the US of a new crypto exchange EDX Markets. For the moment, however, the entity will specialize in serving institutions and cannot be compared to Binance or Coinbase​
  • EDX is backed by Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial, among others, some of the largest market makers in the world, as well as Charles Schwab , Fidelity Investments fund and other Wall Street institutions.​
  • Today's reports from the US indicate that another institution, Invesco, has once again applied to the SEC for approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF​
  • A Nomura survey indicated that 96% of professional institutional investors managing nearly $5 trillion (303 institutions) are willing to invest in cryptocurrencies, and 82% had a positive view of the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and Ethereum​
  • As a result of Bitcoin's sudden rise in the market, the largest wave of short position liquidations since May 28 took place (Approx. $40 million liquidation in the last 24 h according to CoinGlass)​


On-Chain data shows the fastest increase in Bitcoin flows to institutions with very little or even zero trading history in more than 6 months. This behavior of the network may indicate an accumulation trend on the part of long-term investors.


Bitcoin (BITCOIN) stock chart, W1 interval. The largest cryptocurrency has rebounded from the lower limit of the uptrend sustained since the beginning of this year and is currently heading towards the upper resistance barrier, set by the zone of local peaks from April this year.​


  • Wall Street trades slightly lower on the opening​
  • Investors eagerly await the results of Powell's testimony​
  • FedEx declined due to lower-than-expected forecasts for the year 2024​
Investors remained cautious after a pause in interest-rate hikes, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks indicated the expectation of higher interest rates to control inflation and reduce US growth. The second-quarter stock rally appeared to be fizzling out due to factors such as crowded bullish positioning, high valuations and a growth outlook.

Wall Street opened with losses as investors showed concern over signs of rampant inflation in major economies, indicating that central banks may not be close to winding down their tightening cycles. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5%.
A surge in US housing starts in May indicated strong demand outstripping supply, potentially fueling economic growth. Citigroup analysts believe core inflation is unlikely to return to target in such an environment.


The S&P 500 (US500), with the current price at 4,415 points, has experienced a 0.4% decline today. The price retraced from a resistance level of 4,500 points, which was approximately 6.5% below the all-time high. As the market undergoes a correction, the next level to monitor is at 4,400 points. If this level is broken, the subsequent support level to watch is at 4,300 points.

The recent strong gains in the market suggest that it may be overheated, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 70. Therefore, a period of consolidation and correction is deemed reasonable under these circumstances.​


Britain's main benchmark UK100 is the weakest European index today, losing more than 1%. The upcoming - likely hawkish - decision by the Bank of England by no means signals the end of tightening in the British economy. While it is uncertain whether rates will rise by 25 or 50 bps, the market will almost certainly have to swallow a higher 50 bps BoE hike - today or in August. Yesterday's reading indicated that UK inflation in May appears to have stabilized at excessively high levels. Core CPI was unchanged at 8.7% y/y - the market had expected 8.4% y/y. Also, the core CPI , which was expected to remain unchanged at 6.8% y/y, accelerated to 7.1% y/y - the highest level in 30 years.

The difficult situation could prompt the Bank of England to an extremely restrictive cycle if the BoE prioritizes the fight against inflation. In such a situation, the baseline scenario seems to be economic damage, which is generally not good for the performance of firms and consequently the stock market. With inflation anchored too high and a period of below-trend growth, a stagflation Ary scenario is a sizable threat to the British economy. As long as the labor market remains relatively strong, the market has no reason to be overly concerned, however, macro uncertainty has been reflected in the quotations of British indices recently.


Looking at the chart of FTSE (UK100) contracts, however, we see that the upward trend line is maintained although the index has dropped below the SMA200 (red line) indicating a possible further weakening of momentum. In addition, looking at the index's quotations since February, this year, we can juxtapose them with the technical formation of a rising wedge from which a breakout usually takes place at the bottom. RSI indicators near oversold and MACD confirm considerable weakness in the bulls - further decline without an upward correction would therefore have to be outright 'capitulation'. The market's reaction to the BoE minutes and decision may prove crucial.​


Release of flash PMIs for June from France and Germany turned out to be a disappointment. French data showed a slump in service gauge from 52.0 to 48.0, meaning that the sector was contracting. Meanwhile, German data showed a plunge in the manufacturing index from 43.2 to 41.0 - the lowest level since May 2020 when sentiment in the industry was slumping amid Covid-19 pandemic and resulting lockdowns. While DE30 saw a positive reaction to French data and moved slightly higher, the index took a hit following release of German data as it hinted at continued struggles of the German economy's main motor - manufacturing.


Taking a look at the DE30 chart at the H4 interval, we can see that the index is currently trading near a psychological 16,000 pts level. A point to note is that the index plunged back into the recently broken 15,810-16,085 trading range. Nevertheless, the ongoing pullback has not yet exceeded the range of the correction that occurred in the second half of May 2023 and, according to the Overbalance methodology, remains in an uptrend. Should declines deepen traders should watch the 15,850 pts area, where the lower limit of the Overbalance structure can be found.​

Oil - Morning Wrap

  • Feud between Russian Ministry of Defense and PMC Wagner escalated into a rebellion over the weekend with the latter taking control of a few Russian cities and marching an armored convoy towards Moscow​
  • However, a deal between Kremlin and PMC Wagner was brokered by Belarusian president Lukashenko and the short-lived rebellion was ended​
  • Given lack of any significant resistance from the Russian army against Wagner's advance on Moscow, war analysts wonder whether the uprising was staged​
  • As Wagner's mutiny started and ended before the opening of markets, we do not see any major reaction to the events. Oil and precious metals opened slightly higher​
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed during the first session of a new week. Nikkei dropped 0.1%, S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.4%, Kospi gained 0.4% and Nifty 50 gained 0.1%. Indices from China traded 0.3-1.5% lower​
  • European index futures point to a more or less flat opening of the cash session on the Old Continent​
  • SNB Chairman Jordan said that recent rate hikes were likely not enough to bring inflation down​
  • Chinese travel activity has still not recovered after a pandemic. Data for recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 22-24) showed travel was 22.8% below pre-pandemic 2019​
  • Summary of Opinions from BoJ June meeting showed that CPI inflation is not expected to drop below target towards the end of the year. On top of that, one member saw it as appropriate to make changes to yield curve control mechanism​
  • OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2045​
  • Saudi Aramco head said that China and India account for over 2 million barrels of oil demand growth​
  • S&P Global lowered its Chinese GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 5.5 to 5.2%​
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading lower - Bitcoin drops 0.6%, Ethereum trades 0.9% lower and Dogecoin slumps 1.6%​
  • Energy commodities gain - oil trades 0.2% higher while US natural gas prices jump 2%​
  • Precious metals advance - gold trades 0.4% higher, silver jumps 1.6% and platinum adds 1.4%​
  • GBP and NZD are the best performing major currencies while USD and CHF lag the most​


OIL.WTI opened higher following a short-lived Russian coup but all of the gains have been erased already.​


Risk-on moods can be spotted on the markets today. Equities in Europe and China traded higher earlier today and now solid gains can be spotted on Wall Street as well. Upbeat comments from the Chinese Prime Minister on additional stimulus measures being implemented starting from July as well as solid US data earlier today are supporting upbeat sentiment on the markets.


German DAX futures (DE30) found their way back above the 16,000 pts mark this afternoon. Index tested 15,850 pts support zone yesterday but failed to break below. Bulls managed to hold the index above the upper limit of the upward channel. Bullish candlestick patterns suggest that a recovery move may be on the cards now. In such a scenario, 16,090 pts area will be the first near-term resistance to watch.


US indices are trading higher today with S&P 500 futures (US500) breaking above 4,400 pts area. Taking a look at the index at H1 interval, we can see that price broke above the upper limit of the bearish channel and 50-period moving average (green line). Advance continued and bulls managed to break above the 4,400 pts resistance zone, where the upper limit of market geometry was located, flashing another sign that a short-term bullish trend reversal occurred. The next resistance zone to watch can be found in the 4,427 pts area and is marked with previous price reactions.​


  • Saudi Arabia and Russia's supply cut announcement fails to offset concerns over manufacturing activity slowdown worldwide​
  • Deceleration in China, Eurozone, and the US manufacturing PMI data contribute to the downward pressure on WTI prices​
Despite the supply cut efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI crude oil prices continue to face downward pressure due to concerns about a global economic slowdown. The slowdown in manufacturing activity worldwide, as evident from PMI data, has overshadowed the impact of the supply cuts. China's manufacturing PMI indicates a modest expansion but a continued deceleration, while the Eurozone and Germany are experiencing deceleration and a technical recession. The US manufacturing PMI suggests a slowing economy, which could have implications for the rate hike decisions of the US Federal Reserve. Additionally, Russia's plan to reduce exports to boost oil prices is overshadowed by China's slow reopening.


Amidst the deteriorating global manufacturing sector, the bearish sentiment for crude oil persists. Despite OPEC+ cuts and monetary stimulus from China, oil prices remain range-bound. The resistance at $73 has led to repeated rejections, maintaining a bearish bias. There is a possibility of testing the support level at $67.44 or further at $64, and a break below this level could trigger a significant downward movement towards the $57 level. Currently, the price is likely to test the $67.44 support, where buyers might enter the market. Otherwise, if buyers step in, the price may find support and potentially rally towards the $73 resistance zone.​


  • Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $30,000 level​
  • Extreme emotions in cryptocurrencies​
Last week, we wrote about the euphoria surrounding BTC, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies after XRP won the case against the SEC in court. Riding the positive sentiment, BTC briefly surged to the $31,800 level, ETH surpassed $2,000, and XRP gained over 80% to reach $0.90.

However, the upper boundary of the consolidation channel for BTC is incredibly strong. The $31,200-$31,400 level served as significant support during the bull market in 2021 and the bear market in 2022. This time, BTC failed to break above it and experienced a sharp decline to around $30,000 on Friday evening. Speculations arose regarding the reason for the drop, but it was most likely a combination of several factors:​
  • Still ongoing regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainty​
  • XRP's win against the SEC, which after emotions cooled down, still leaves room for the SEC to appeal and continue the dispute​
  • Speculations about Binance's weak condition following information concerning layoffs of 1,500-3,000 employees compared to the total employment of around 8,000​

The failure to break above the channel despite such significant news may suggest weakness in the bulls and an upcoming short-term downward trend. A key level to watch is the lower boundary of the channel around $29,700-$30,000. A daily close below this level could pave the way towards $27,500.​


CFD contracts on the Nasdaq 100 (US100) reacted with a significant correction after yesterday's initial attempt to break above 16,000. The Nasdaq 100 index lost 2.3% at the close of trading on Thursday, marking the worst performance since the start of the year. This sharp decline is due to several factors. ⚡

Firstly, it's currently the quarterly earnings season, and not all reported results are satisfying investors. Tesla and Netflix published their earnings two days ago after the session, and the results were worse than expected, leading to nearly 10% drops in both companies during yesterday's session. These are companies valued at approximately $820 billion and $200 billion, respectively. Given these poor results, investors are also starting to worry about upcoming releases. Yesterday's session saw losses for Nvidia (-3.3%), Microsoft (-2.3%), Meta (-4.3%), and Alphabet (-2.3%). 🤖

Another factor could be the recently announced upcoming rebalancing of the Nasdaq index. The new weights are set to be implemented on July 24, which is next Monday. The new weights significantly reduce the share of the largest companies such as Apple, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla. Therefore, all passive funds will also have to revise their equity portfolios, which carries significant short-term selling pressure on large companies and, conversely, on smaller ones buying pressure, making an opportunity for saavy investors. Currently, the six largest companies account for 50% of the Nasdaq 100's assets. Rebalancing the index will reduce these shares to 40% of the index portfolio.


Looking at the chart from a technical perspective, all the news coincided perfectly with the US100 approaching the upper limit of the upward channel. This strong reaction may indicate a short-term correction and a decline in indicators. It's possible that we may approach the lower limit in the short term.​

SPA 35 Loses 1.5% after election​

Lack of a clear winner in Spain's snap election could lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty on the stock market

The center-right People's Party (PP) won Sunday's snap general election in Spain, winning 136 seats in the 350-seat parliament. PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo announced his readiness to form a new government and called on the other parties to help him with this mission. On the other hand, polls from just a few weeks ago gave him a decidedly higher number of seats, which can be considered a slight disappointment for the PP party that was predicted to form a new government.

Second place went to the leftist Spanish Socialist Workers' Party - the incumbent leader in parliament (PSOE), whose leader is current Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. The party won 122 seats, a marginally better result than before. In third place was the far-right Vox party with 33 seats, which could be a potential coalition partner for the PP. However, 176 seats are needed to form a government majority, which means that other scenarios are possible, such as a government of the left and separatists or another election. It is noteworthy that the Vox party, which is called an extremist far-right party, has the largest decline among all parties, but at the same time the number of seats it has won in parliament gives it the opportunity to enter into a coalition with the People's Party.


In an evening speech, Prime Minister Sanchez expressed satisfaction with "declining" support for right-wing parties, although at the same time, support for the PP party itself has increased. Some believe that Sanchez will try to block Feijoo's ability to form a government, which could mean another period of instability in Spain, as is currently being seen in the Spanish stock market.

SPA35 (IBEX) is losing heavily at the open due to uncertainty over the formation of a new government. SPA35 opens with a gap, the lowest since July 18.​

Chart of the Day - US500

The S&P 500 (US500) recently reached a critical resistance level at 4631, raising questions about the market's next moves. Last week, the Federal Reserve implemented a widely anticipated 25 bps interest rate hike, and market participants closely monitored Fed Chair Powell's press conference for hints about future policy decisions. However, Powell offered no clear signals, emphasizing the Fed's reliance on data for future choices. Economic data following the FOMC meeting pointed to a soft landing scenario, with US Jobless Claims surpassing expectations, but the US PCE and Employment Cost Index falling short of forecasts.

In the upcoming week, several economic data releases will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. These include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, US ADP data, US Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI, and the highly anticipated US NFP report. The market's focus on the soft-landing narrative suggests that positive data may push the market higher, while disappointing data could trigger downward movements. Despite some short-term caution, the S&P 500's overall trend remains bullish. However in the short-term a pullback or consolidation phase is expected before any potential further highs. Ultimately, the ongoing rally may lead the index to new all-time highs, with a healthy consolidation period in the weeks and months ahead.


Examining the daily timeframe, the S&P 500 encountered resistance at 4631, leading to a pullback as sellers took the opportunity to secure profits. Potential support levels for a pullback could be at 4550 and 4500. The index's price is currently trading near the upper boundary of an ascending channel (indicated by the blue line) that has been respected since February 2023. The next crucial resistance level to watch for is around 4700-4730 points.​
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