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2023 Commodities Forecast by Solidecn.com

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XRPUSD - The Pair is in a State of Uncertainty​

Experts associate the downward correction, which is common for most digital assets, with the expectation of today's results of the US Federal Reserve meeting: the market is ready to soften the "hawkish" rhetoric, but investors are afraid to hear hints that the monetary policy tightening cycle will last a long time, so they remain calm and are in no hurry to buy risky assets.

The growth of quotations is hindered by the uncertainty associated with the suit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple, the verdict on which should be issued soon: the agency accuses the company of issuing an unregistered security (XRP token) and illegally distributing it in the amount of 1.3B dollars. Separate claims concern the management of the corporation: the company's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, and its co-founder Chris Larsen, who, according to officials, received 600.0M dollars from the sale of their own coins. Investors were alarmed by the appointment of Monica Long, who previously held the position of general manager, to the post of president of Ripple: analysts believe that the current management of the company allows the outcome of the trial to be negative for her and seeks to prevent chaos in management in the event of serious legal consequences for Garlinghouse and Larsen.

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Currently, the trading instrument is around the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it consolidates below it, as well as 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]), the decline may continue to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]), 0.3418 (Murrey [6/8]). Consolidation above 0.4150 (Murrey level [+1/8]) will give rise to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), 0.4750.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418​
 

FTSE 100 - The stock market is waiting for the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate​

The UK stock market is correcting against the backdrop of yesterday's data, which reflected a decrease in inflation in the eurozone in January by 0.4%, which provoked a slowdown in consumer prices in annual terms from 9.2% to 8.5%. In turn, the Core CPI in monthly terms amounted to -0.8%, and in annual terms remained at the level of 5.2%. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are meeting today and are projected to raise their interest rates from 2.00% to 2.50% and from 3.50% to 4.00% respectively, which is the main factor exerting current pressure on stock market quotes.

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On the daily chart, the index quotes continue corrective growth, remaining in the middle of the rising channel, and the technical indicators are holding a buy signal in preparation for its strengthening.

Support levels: 7730, 7530 | Resistance levels: 7850, 8000​
 
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Gold Technical Analysis​

Gold price ended yesterday below the bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart, to start bearish correction for the rise measured from 1616.65 to 1959.75, on its way to visit 1878.8 as a first correctional target.

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Therefore, we expect to witness more decline in the upcoming sessions, taking into consideration that breaching 1928.6 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1890 support and 1930 resistance.​
 
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Morning Wrap - US500​

S&P 500 (US500) failed to break above the 4,165 pts resistance zone last week and started to pull back. The move lower is being continued today. Tensions between China and the US are picking-up after the US Air Force shot down a Chinese spy balloon over the weekend.

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Nasdaq 100 - American stock market is preparing for a reversal​

One of the leading US indexes Nasdaq 100 shows corrective dynamics, being at around 12500.0, reversing downwards amid disappointing financial results of large companies. The situation cannot be changed even by the strengthening of the positions of the American currency, supported by data on an increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls by 517.0 thousand jobs with an expected growth of only 190.0 thousand.

The largest online retailer Amazon.com Inc. reported close-to-loss quarterly earnings per share of just 0.03 dollars, worse than the 0.17 dollars forecast. At the same time, the company increased its revenue from 127.1 billion dollars to 149.2 billion dollars. Technology giant Apple Inc. posted earnings per share of 1.88 dollars, lower than the expected 1.94 dollars, and revenue of 117.2 billion dollars versus a forecast of 121.88 billion dollars. In turn, Alphabet Inc. reported revenue of 76.05 billion dollars versus a forecast of 76.07 billion dollars and earnings per share of 1.05 dollars, down from the previous quarter's figure of 1.06 dollars.

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On the daily chart, the index quotes are correcting as part of the global Expanding Formation pattern, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which is about to start weakening.

Support levels: 12200, 11400 | Resistance levels: 12800, 13600​
 

XAUUSD - Global demand for gold remains at a record high​

Yesterday, gold quotes recorded the most significant drop since last June, dropping by 90.0 dollars from 1950.0 to Friday's low at 1860.0, the key driver of which was the growth of the US dollar from 101.500 to 102.900 in the USD Index against the background of a strong report on the US labor market. Investors perceived the movement as a local correction, which will not receive a serious continuation since the fundamental global background does not contribute to the decline in the asset: according to the report for 2022, global demand for gold amounted to 4.741K tons, which is an absolute record since 2011. Most of the positive momentum came from central banks' purchases, which mostly wished to remain anonymous. According to experts, regulators thus hope to protect themselves from possible sanctions, providing strong support for national economies.

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On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, keeping around the support line of the rising corridor. Technical indicators weaken the buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1900, 1960 | Support levels: 1860, 1800​
 

ETHUSD - Murray analysis​

The ETHUSD pair has been trading within the upward trend since the beginning of this year, however, growth has slowed down in the last three weeks, and quotes have entered the sideways range of 1687.5 - 1562.50 (Murray levels [7/8]-[6/8]), where they are now.

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Currently, the price is trying to resume growth from the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (1625) and, if consolidated above the upper limit of the specified range, it will be able to rise to 1750 (Murray level [8/8]) and 1875 (Murray level [+2/8]). In general, the uptrend in the pair is still maintained, which is signaled by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the positive zone. A downward reversal of the Stochastic allows a breakdown of the middle line of the Bollinger bands and a pullback of the price to the area of 1562.5 (Murray level [5/8], the lower line of the Bollinger Bands), however, in this case, an upward reversal is more likely than further development of the downward movement.

Resistance levels: 1687.5, 1750, 1875 | Support levels: 1562.5, 1500, 1375, 1250​
 
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Crude Oil - Global oil supply holds stable levels​

The market remains stable, and more and more experts agree that the sanctions imposed by Western countries to limit the export of Russian oil do not bring the expected result. Yesterday, Bloomberg published an article reporting another record of weekly marine fuel supplies from Russia: by February 3, their daily volume increased by 125 K barrels to 3.456M barrels, and China, India and Turkey were the main buyers, the total volume for which amounted to 3.29M barrels. However, transportation through pipelines continues to decline, and in January the figure for Germany and Poland fell to 120K barrels per day. Yesterday it became known that Japan joined the sanctions policy of the G7 and European countries aimed at setting the price limit for Russian oil products transported by sea in the amount of 100 dollars per barrel and 40 dollars per barrel, depending on the category. The restrictions came into effect on February 6 but the limit, as noted, will be reviewed every two months, depending on the market situation.

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On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the global downwards corridor, gradually approaching the support line around 70.00.

Resistance levels: 83.3, 89 | Support levels: 79.6, 74​
 
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XRPUSD - Technical analysis​

The XRPUSD pair has been actively growing since the beginning of this year as part of the general market trend. However, at present, the upward dynamics have seriously slowed. The price reached three-month highs around 0.4290, after which it rolled back to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]). Fixation below it will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the resistance zone of 0.4050 – 0.4150 (middle line of Bollinger bands, Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [+1/8]), growth may continue to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8]), 0.4565 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 0.4750.

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Technical indicators point to the continuation of the uptrend. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.4565, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418​
 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis​

Crude oil price crawls upwards to reach the thresholds of 78.90 level, reminding you that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 80.40. Until now, we still suggest the continuation of the bullish bias on the intraday basis as long as 77.05 level remains intact, as breaking it will turn trades to decline towards 75.65 before any new positive attempt.

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The expected trading range for today is between 77.00 support and 80.00 resistance. The expected trading range for today is between 83.60 support and 87.00 resistance.​
 

Gold Price Awaits more Decline

Gold price settles below the broken support of the bearish flag pattern, to keep the negative effect of this pattern active, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards our main expected target at 1828.70. On the other hand, the price form new negative pattern that we expect to cause additional declines that surpass the mentioned level to head towards 1788.20 areas on the near term basis.

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Therefore, we expect to witness more bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, taking into consideration that breaching 1878.8 will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.​
 

Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today’s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period.

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The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.​
 

NI 225 - Trading within the Global Descending Corridor​

Japanese stock market quotes continue to move erratically against the backdrop of the closing period of corporate reporting, as well as recent macroeconomic statistics. On Tuesday, data on the state of the national economy were published, which reflected the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2% in Q4 2022 after an increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Compared to last year, the indicator added 0.6% after 2.0% in the previous period.

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On the daily chart, the price remains within the global descending corridor, reaching the resistance line and reversing downwards, and the technical indicators hold the buy signal, which begins to weaken.

Support levels: 27150, 25700 | Resistance levels: 27750, 28500​
 
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Gold Drops to Six-week Low Amid Stronger USD

Gold price dropped over 1.0% during today's session and is trading at levels not seen since early January as fresh US inflation figures bolstered bets that Fed will stick to its tightening path in order to bring down inflation. Also latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Fed's Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. Markets now expect the Fed funds rate to peak around 5.26% in July from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This puts pressure on precious metals, while the dollar strengthens across the board, with the most pronounced buying activity against the antipodean currencies. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, is moving towards 3.8%, a level not seen in more than a month. Traders now look ahead to US retail sales data on 1:30 pm GMT for more clues about the economy. Higher than expected reading would give Fed more reasons to continue on a hawkish path and put further pressure on bullion.

From a technical point of view, gold prices pull back sharply after buyers failed to break above major resistance at $1875. Price is currently approaching crucial support at $1830, which is marked with previous price reactions and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020. Should break lower occur, sell-off may accelerate towards psychological support at $1800.

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Gold price dropped over 1.0% during today's session and is trading at levels not seen since early January as fresh US inflation figures bolstered bets that Fed will stick to its tightening path in order to bring down inflation. Also latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Fed's Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. Markets now expect the Fed funds rate to peak around 5.26% in July from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This puts pressure on precious metals, while the dollar strengthens across the board, with the most pronounced buying activity against the antipodean currencies. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, is moving towards 3.8%, a level not seen in more than a month. Traders now look ahead to US retail sales data on 1:30 pm GMT for more clues about the economy. Higher than expected reading would give Fed more reasons to continue on a hawkish path and put further pressure on bullion.

From a technical point of view, gold prices pull back sharply after buyers failed to break above major resistance at $1875. Price is currently approaching crucial support at $1830, which is marked with previous price reactions and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020. Should break lower occur, sell-off may accelerate towards psychological support at $1800.

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US dollar strengthens across the board during today's session.

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Crude Oil Technical Analysis​

Crude oil price bounced upwards clearly after the negative attempts that it witnessed yesterday, as it kept its stability above 78.00, to surpass 78.90 level and settles above it now, which leads the price to resume the bullish bias, affected by the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern, which has positive targets that start at 81.60 and extend to 84.25.

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Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected for the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, being aware that breaking 78.00 will cancel the mentioned positive formation and press on the price to turn to decline, to head towards visiting 75.65 areas mainly.​
 

DAX 40 - the German stock market is preparing to continue its growth

The aircraft engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines Holding published its financial results yesterday, reporting quarterly revenue growth to 1.51 billion euros from 1.35 billion euros in the previous period, while earnings per share increased from 2.14 euros to 2.23 euros. HR consulting company Randstad Holding NV released another positive report, reporting revenue of 7.01 billion euros, which beat analysts' forecast of 6.96 billion euros, and earnings per share of 1.93 euros, the highest in the company's history. Investors were disappointed only by the statistics of the brewing company Heineken NV, which recorded a drop in revenue from 7.79 billion euros to 7.42 billion euros.

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On the daily chart, the price is trading in an uptrend, holding within the local ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries of 16300 – 15000, and the technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal.

Support levels: 15250, 14700 | Resistance levels: 15680, 16200​
 

NATGAS​

US natural gas prices have been trading sideways since the beginning of February. Bulls attempted to break above the upper limit of the trading range in the 2.60 area on Tuesday but failed and a pullback was triggered. Price found support in the 2.43 area and an over-4% rally has taken place in the past few hours. The EIA report on natural gas inventories is released to watch for NATGAS traders today. It is expected to show much smaller inventory draw (-97 bcf) than in the previous week (-217 bcf). Such low expectations can be reasoned with the fact that the United States enjoyed relatively high temperatures. Moreover, the report will not yet capture the impact of Freeport LNG terminal resuming operations. Nevertheless, some short-term volatility is to be expected around release time.

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Taking a look at NATGAS chart we can see that the price is currently trading near the midpoint of the trading range. Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate in the next 8-14 days with temperatures in key heating regions dropping. This combined with resumption of exports at Freeport LNG terminal may provide some upward pressure on NATGAS prices going forward.​
 

Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting at 83.​

The market remains stable against the background of incoming multidirectional, fundamental information. Thus, the export of Russian oil is actively redirected to new markets after the introduction of economic sanctions by the EU and members of the G7, and yesterday, India announced another record for energy purchases: total imports in January for the first time exceeded 5.0M barrels per day, and in second place in terms of supply is Russia, which sold a record 1.4M barrels per day, up 9.2% compared to December, while the share of oil from the Middle East in total oil imports India decreased to 48.0%, although at the beginning of last year, it exceeded 80.0%. Meanwhile, the US authorities are developing additional measures to block Russian oil exports. According to Bloomberg, the new bans are planned to be directed against the defense and energy sectors, focusing on compliance with current restrictions and preventing circumvention of price cap restrictions.

Thus, the supply of raw materials on the world market continues to grow, and the data on stocks from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a growth of 16.283M barrels, clearly confirm that it does not allow the asset quotes to return to growth.

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On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the local ascending corridor, completing the next wave of decline and getting ready for a reversal, and the technical indicators are uncertain, pointing to a local correction.

Resistance levels: 85.6, 91 | Support levels: 80, 75.5​
 
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