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2023 Commodities Forecast by Solidecn.com


FTSE 100 - British stock market continues to rise​

The British stock market continues its upward movement supported by corporate reporting, as well as by a positive macroeconomic background. According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), Retail Sales rose 0.5% in January after falling 1.2% a month earlier, while the annual rate slowed the decline from -6.1% to -5.1%. In turn, the Core Retail Sales Index on a monthly basis was 0.4% after -1.4% in December, while the annual rate was -5.3% after -6.5% a month earlier.

The day before, financial conglomerate Standard Chartered Plc. published its results: revenue was 3.47 billion pounds, after 4.32 billion pounds in the previous quarter, and earnings per share amounted to 0.039 pounds, significantly less than 0.33 pounds, recorded in the previous period. In turn, the consulting company Relx Plc. reported earnings of 4.58 billion pounds, beating analysts' estimates of 4.47 billion pounds, and earnings per share of 0.45 pounds, up from 0.39 pounds in the previous quarter.


On the daily chart, the index quotes continue their corrective growth, rising in the direction of the resistance line, and the technical indicators are holding a buy signal.

Support levels: 7925, 7714 | Resistance levels: 8055, 8250​
BTCUSD - Growth, but serious negative factors for the digital market remain

There were no serious fundamental reasons for the strengthening of BTC positions, so most experts believe that it was caused by speculative operations. In particular, on February 15, one of the large funds made an acquisition of cryptocurrency worth about 1.0B dollars, which could push the quotes up. Nevertheless, two main long-term negative factors, the monetary policy of the US Fed and the pressure of US regulators, which can lead digital assets to a new decline, still persist.

The latest data on inflation in the USA confirmed the too slow pace of its decline, which finally convinced investors that in the near future the cycle of interest rate increases will not be completed, which will lead to further strengthening of the position of the US currency in relation to alternative assets. On the other hand, US regulators are increasing pressure on the cryptocurrency sector, trying to prevent a repeat of the situation with the FTX exchange and the loss of investors' investments. Currently, the main attention of officials is focused on the activities of cryptocurrency exchanges, which are systematically persecuted. In the middle of the month, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused the Kraken digital platform of selling a staking program unregistered by the regulator to customers and forced it to pay a fine of 30.0M dollars. Also last week, the Binance exchange was attacked again, although it was done through Paxos, the issuer of the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoins. The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) accused Paxos of insufficient control over its products and the possibility of their use by attackers. As a result, the issue of USDP and BUSD was stopped, but their turnover is still maintained. The consequence of these decisions has already been the termination of Paxos' work on the creation of a stablecoin for PayPal Holdings Inc. and the severance of relations with Binance. The management of the crypto exchange, according to Bloomberg, is considering the possibility of terminating cooperation with all partners from the USA and even completely leaving the American market. Experts believe that the situation could be much more dangerous for the entire digital sector if the authorities decide to freeze or confiscate assets that link BUSD to the dollar. In this case, the world's largest digital trading platform can expect bankruptcy.


Technically, the key for the "bulls" remains the level of 25000 (Murray level [8/8]), consolidation above which will cause continued growth to the levels of 26562.5 (Murray level [+1/8]) and 27400 (Fibo retracement 38.2%). In case of a breakdown of the level of 23000 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement 23.6%), the decline will be able to resume to the levels of 21000, 20312.5 (Murray level [5/8]).

Resistance levels: 25000, 26562.5, 27400 | Support levels: 23000, 21000, 20312.5​


Major European indices finished today's session mostly lower, with Dax closing slightly below the flatline as traders brace themselves for the release of critical PMI data for the eurozone and the US due tomorrow before the publication of FOMC minutes later on Wednesday. ECB's Rehn said rates should be raised after March and the terminal rate could be reached this summer.


Silver bounced off the key support zone around $21.35-21.45 on Friday, which is marked with the lower limit of 1: 1 structure and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last bullish wave. Moreover, a hammer formation has appeared on the D1 interval, which may be a sign that recent downward correction may have come to an end.​

XAGUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) forms, within which the entry first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave iv of 1.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow within the wave v of 1 to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.15.


BREAKING: German IFO Data Meets Estimates, DE30 Muted​

German IFO Institute published the latest survey data for February today at 9:00 am GMT. Data came in mostly in-line with market expectations with headline Business Climate index reaching 91.1 (exp. 91.2). Current conditions subindex missed estimates by quite a big margin while Expectations subindex turned out to be slightly better than expected. However, as scale of deviations from median estimates was small, there were no major reactions on the market. EURUSD ticked lower while DE30 was flat following the release.​
  • IFO Business Climate index for February: 91.1 vs 91.2 expected (90.2 previously)​
  • Expectations: 88.5 vs 88.4 expected (86.4 previously)​
  • Current Conditions: 93.9 vs 95.0 expected (94.1 previously)​

DE30 barely saw any reaction to in-line IFO data. Index continues to trade near 15,300 pts price zone, that has limited recent downward moves.​


Last week, the XRPUSD pair attempted to grow within the framework of the general market trend and tested the upper limit of the Murray trading range, supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands in the area of 0.3906.


Quotes have not yet managed to consolidate above this level, but if successful, the upward dynamics will be able to continue to the levels of 0.4150 (Murray level [+1/8]), 0.4330 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The key for the "bears" is the 0.3662 level (Murray level [1/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), consolidation below it will give the prospect of the price returning to the area of 0.3418 (Murray level [6/8]), 0.3174 (Murray level [5/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4150, 0.4330 | Support levels: 0.3662, 0.3418, 0.3174​

Shell stock %5 weaker in 5 days but still well above SMA 200​

Shell (SHEL.UK) is doing well even though the winter supply problems and energy crisis have not materialized. Natural gas is seeing unprecedented sell-offs, and oil prices, despite the fuel embargo from Russia, have fallen from wartime highs on a wave of fears of a global recession.


In 2022 Shell's profit rose more than 100% y/y to around $40 billion. In Q4 2022, the company reported record quarterly financial results, and full-year profit significantly beat the previous record set in 2008. Shell paid out $6.3 billion in dividends in Q4 and plans another $4 billion share buyback. Source: BBC

UK 'windfall tax'​

In the UK, controversy over 'Big Oil' profits is growing in the face of a planned 40% increase in energy prices in April. Shell is in a complicated position because it is based in the UK, but produces a relatively small amount of oil and gas in British waters. It paid $134 million (£110 million) in taxes on its UK operations in 2022 (about 1% of the company's $13 billion in taxes in 2022) but expects up to a 350% increase in that amount in 2023. Companies operating in the UK already pay 40% tax on oil and gas profits. However, they can reduce it by deducting the costs of shutting down oil rigs, advances on future investments and losses from earlier years. The UK estimates that between 2022 and 2028, the higher 40% windfall tax will bring about £40 billion to the budget, collected from all companies operating in British waters. However, Shell will be probably able to deduct more than 90% of the cost of new exploration and production, reducing the final tax.

Circumventing sanctions?

In a wave of 'Guardian' reports, controversy has grown around Shell, which is accused of circumventing sanctions by exploiting a 'loophole' in the system, i.e. importing Russian oil and its derivatives to Europe via Turkey, which has become the Kremlin's import hub. An analysis of data from Kpler by the Global Witness group showed that Shell has imported more than 600,000 barrels of refined products from Turkish refineries into the Netherlands since December 5. It is impossible to prove whether the products definitely came from Russia, but Turkish refineries import huge quantities of cheap oil from Russia, which are then refined or blended with crude from other countries. In 2022 Turkey imported 143 million barrels of oil from Russia, a 50% year-on-year increase. Shell announced its intention to withdraw from trade with Russia, last March, following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. A Shell spokesman denied media reports of sanctions, the company accounted for 11% of LNG shipments to the EU, easing supply pressures caused by sanctions on Russia.


Shell has completed the acquisition of Europe's largest producer of renewable natural gas (RNG), Nature Energy. According to the company, the acquisition is expected to generate double-digit profits, thanks to its broad customer portfolio. Nature Energy has 14 operating plants and produced about 6.5 million MMBtu of RNG in 2022. More than a third of the company's 30 new projects are in mid- to late-stage development in Denmark, the Netherlands and France, and could deliver up to 9.2 million MMBtu per year by 2030. RNG is a biomethane that works similarly to conventional gas and can be used in existing infrastructure (also as a BioLNG), while not releasing harmful methane into the atmosphere, allowing it to be processed.


Shell (SHEL.UK) shares, D1 interval. The stock, despite the correction of the last few days, has been doing very well recently despite the decline in oil prices (yellow chart). The main support for the stock is the SMA200 (red line), which has been limiting the space for declines for 2 years. Lower levels worth noting are the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in 2020.​

US500 Fell Slightly after Minutes​

Markets unimpressed by latest FOMC minutes

Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were hawkish but investors were expecting this narrative. The document did not present many new information regarding further steps that the FED intends to take regarding fiscal policy. Almost all FOMC participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps at the first monetary policy meeting of 2023, although a few officials favored raising it by 50bps. Minutes release taking into account hawkish tone led to small pullback on equity markets and appreciation of USD dollar.

Below you can find key takeaways from the document:
  • A few participants favored raising rates by 50 basis points​
  • Several participants advocated raising interest rates by 50 basis points.​
  • Some participants predicted an increase in the likelihood of a recession in 2023.​
  • Participants stated that the continued tight job market would contribute upward pressure to inflation.​
  • Participants said that inflation in last three months has eased, but they need to see more progress.​
  • All participants agreed more rate hikes needed to achieve federal open market committee's job, inflation objectives.​
  • Upside risks for inflation, including China's economic reopening and Russia's war in Ukraine.​

US500 pulled back slightly after today's Minutes, however continues to trade above major support at 4000 pts.​


  • US indices finished yesterday's trading mixed. S&P 500 dropped 0.16%, Dow Jones moved 0.26% lower, Nasdaq gained 0.13% and Russell 2000 added 0.34%.​
  • FOMC minutes triggered a hawkish reaction on the markets, with USD gaining somewhat and indices slashing gains. Document noted that a few FOMC members opted for a 50 bp rate hike and that all members agreed more tightening is needed.​
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today. S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.4%, Kospi moved 0.8% higher while Nifty 50 traded flat. Indices from China traded 0.2-0.4% lower.​
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today.​
  • Fed Williams said that demand is still exceeding supply and that monetary policy must ensure that balance is restored. Williams said that 2% inflation is foundational target.​
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said that cyclone-related price pressures may require higher rates to be kept for longer. Orr also said that a large inflationary shock would be needed for RBNZ to return to 75 bp rate hikes.​
  • Australian capital expenditures increased 2.2% QoQ in Q4 2022 (exp. +1.0% QoQ).​
  • API report pointed to a 9.89 million barrel build in US oil inventories (exp. +1.1 mb).​
  • Nvidia rallied almost 9% in the after-hours trading, following the release of earnings report for November 2022 - January 2023 period. Revenue reached $6.05 billion (exp. $6.00 billion) while adjusted EPS came in at $0.88 (exp. $0.81). Company expects revenue to reach $6.5 billion in February - April period, above Wall Street estimate of $6.33 billion.​
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading mostly higher - Bitcoin gains 1.1%, Ethereum adds 1.8% and Tezos jumps over 5%.​
  • Energy commodities trade mixed - Brent and WTI trades 0.3-0.4% higher while US natural gas prices drop 0.2%.​
  • Precious metals catch a bid amid USD weakening - gold gains 0.4%, silver adds 0.7% and platinum jumps 1%.​
  • NZD and AUD are the best performing major currencies while USD and JPY lag the most.​

Nasdaq-100 (US100) trades within a short-term downward channel. Index took a hit yesterday following release of FOMC minutes but managed to find support at 200-period moving average (purple line, H4 interval) and climbed back above the price zone marked with 38.2% retracement of the upward move launched in late-December 2022.​

US500 Reverses Early Gains!​

US equities at new session lows, while 💲 strengthens amid broad risk off sentiment.

Major Wall Street indices launched Thursday's session higher, however upbeat sentiment faded away later on and stock resumed recent downward correction, while the dollar index firmed up near 104.7, hovering near its strongest levels in seven weeks.

Investors remained cautious as recent US economic data pointed to a still-tight labor market. At the same time, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that US policymakers largely agreed to keep fighting inflation with more interest rate hikes. Also rising geopolitical tensions weigh on market sentiment. Ahead of the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO Chief Stoltenberg said that the alliance has observed indications that China is perhaps considering sending weapons to Russia. Meanwhile Germany’s Chancellor Scholz informed Chinese representatives that sending weapons to Russia is not acceptable.


US500 fell below psychological support at 4000 pts and is trading at its lowest level since the end of January. If current sentiment prevails, next support to watch can be found at 3920 pts, which is marked with previous price reactions and 200 SMA (red line).


EURUSUD pair extends downward move and is currently testing crucial support at 1.0570, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of downward wave launched in May 2021. Break lower may provide additional fuel for the bears.​


  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded lower at the beginning of a new week. Nikkei dropped 0.1%, S&P/ASX 200 traded 1.1% lower, Kospi slumped 0.9% and Nifty 50 moved 0.8% lower. Indices from China traded 0.2-0.8% lower​
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session​
  • US index futures little changed compared to Friday closing prices​
  • UK prime minister Sunak is set to meet with EC President von der Leyen today to discuss the Brexit deal (Northern Ireland protocol). UK deputy PM Raab said that great progress has been made and that long-standing issue is close to be solved​
  • ECB President Lagarde said that a 50 bp rate hike at the March meeting is not certain and remains data-dependent. ECB Visco said that peak rate could be 3.75% but it remains data-dependant​
  • BoJ Governor nominee Ueda said that CPI growth will slow below 2% in fiscal-2023 but it will take time for the 2% target to be met sustainably and stably. He also said that current monetary easing conducted by Bank of Japan is appropriate​
  • Conway, RBNZ chief economist, expects New Zealand official cash rate to peak around 5.5% around the middle of the year (4.75% currently)​
  • Russia halted pipeline oil deliveries to Polish refiner PKN Orlen over the weekend​
  • New Zealand retail sales dropped 0.6% QoQ in Q4 2022​
  • Australian business inventories dropped 0.2% QoQ in Q4 2022 (exp. 0.0% QoQ)​
  • Cryptocurrencies trade lower - Bitcoin drops 0.3%, Dogecoin trades 0.7% lower while Litecoin pulls back 0.4%. Ethereum gains 0.1%​
  • Energy commodities trade mixed at the beginning of a new week - oil drops 0.9% while US natural gas prices jump 1.4%​
  • Precious metals pull back slightly amid USD strengthening - gold trades 0.1% lower, silver drops 0.2% and platinum pulls back 0.5%​
  • USD and EUR are the best performing major currencies while NZD and AUD lag the most​

Nasdaq-100 futures (US100) climbed back above the 12,000 pts mark but some selling pressure appeared as the European trading drew close and another pull back cannot be ruled out.​


US natural gas prices once again launch a new week with an upward move. NATGAS continues upward movement launched on Friday. This move was triggered by forecasts for colder weather in key US heating regions over the next two weeks and therefore higher demand for natural gas.


US natural gas prices dropped around 70% between mid-December 2022 and mid-February 2023. While there were some upward corrections during this downward impulse, the one we are observing currently deserves a note. Taking a look at NATGAS chart at H4 interval, we can see that price broke above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average at the end of the previous week and it was the first such breakout since mid-December. This may hint that a large upward correction may be on the cards. A break above the upper limit of a market geometry at 2.816 would confirm bullish momentum.​


Cryptocurrencies at the start of the week are trying to make up for declines from the weekend, when Bitcoin retreated below $23,000 on a wave of disappointing for bulls PCE US inflation data. But today Wall Street indices rise again.

Despite media reports of a possible global ban on cryptocurrencies being analyzed by the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board, former World Bank president and IMF chief Georgieva indicated that rather than resorting to a global ban, regulators will work to create an appropriate regulatory framework, taking into account the popularity of cryptocurrencies in emerging economies. In the wake of a softening extreme regulatory spectrum and a rebound on exchange floors, with Bitcoin trading near $23,800, other cryptocurrencies are also trying to rebound.


List of the most gaining cryptocurrencies. Leading the way are the intensely oversold NEO, DYDX and Maker on Friday.


Cryptocurrency-based investment products saw outflows last week, after investors moved funds into funds betting on Bitcoin declines. ​
  • Positive U.S. economic data and the prospect of more Fed rate hikes dampened risk demand, weighing on cryptocurrencies. Funds betting on BTC declines saw inflows totaling $10 million in the week ended February 24, according to CoinShares, compared to an outflow of $12 million from funds betting on a rise in the BTC price (the third weekly decline in a row). Positive fund inflows were registered by CoinShares for Polygon, Solana and Cardano with slightly negative ones for Ethereum.​
The CoinShares report highlighted the most important short-term risks for the industry are the controversy over regulations planned for implementation in 2023, the position of the SEC - whose head Gary Gensler says that of all cryptocurrencies, only Bitcoin is a 'digital commodity' and may not fall under its jurisdiction, and investor sensitivity to macroeconomic data. , which have recently disappointed bulls by casting doubt on the disinflationary trend.


itcoin, M30 interval. The major cryptocurrency has broken above the SMA200 average and is struggling for a sustained breakout above the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement at $23,800, which could reopen the way to $25,000.​


It is the key “bullish” level, tested many times over the past five weeks, and consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to 1812.50 (Murrey level [+1/8]), 1875.00 (Murrey level [+2/8]) and 2000.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key “bearish” level is 1500.00 (Murrey's level [4/8]) at the lower border of the formed side range, the breakdown of which will allow the asset to fall to 1375.00 (Murrey's level [2/8]), 1250.00 (Murrey's level [0/8]).


Resistance levels: 1700, 1812.5, 1875, 2000 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250​


During today's session gold price bounced off recent lows above the $1,800 an ounce mark, a level not seen since December 2022. Upward move gained steam after publication of latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures. Price is currently approaching crucial support at $1830, which is marked with previous price reactions, upper limit of local 1:1 structure and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020. Should break lower occur, upward move may accelerate towards the key resistance zone between $1868 - 1875 an ounce. On the other hand, if sellers manage to halt declines around $1830 level, another downward impulse may be launched towards psychological support at $1800.


CHN Comp​

  • US indices finished the final trading session of February lower. S&P 500 dropped 0.30%, Dow Jones moved 0.71% and Nasdaq moved 0.10% lower. Small-cap Russell 2000 bucked the trend and finished 0.04% higher​
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher today. Nikkei added 0.3%, Nifty 50 gained 0.6%, S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.1%​
  • Indices from China traded higher on the back of strong PMIs with Hang Seng trading 4% higher on the day​
  • DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today​
  • Bloomberg reports that amount of Russian diesel-type fuel stored in floating storage reached 1.9 million barrels and is the highest since October 2022 as the country struggles to find buyers for its oil derivative products after Western sanctions​
  • Official Chinese manufacturing PMI jumped from 50.1 to 52.6 in February (exp. 50.5) and reached the highest level since April 2012. Services gauge moved from 54.4 to 56.3 (exp. 55.0)​
  • Australian GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2022 (exp. 0.7% QoQ)​
  • Australian CPI inflation dropped from 8.4 to 7.4% YoY in January (exp. 8.1% YoY)​
  • Australian final manufacturing PMI for February came in at 50.5 and was revised higher from 50.1 signaled in flash reading​
  • Japanese final manufacturing PMI for February came in at 47.7 and was revised slightly higher from 47.4 in flash reading​
  • API report pointed to a 6.2 million barrel build in US oil inventories (exp. +0.8 mb)​
  • Cryptocurrencies trade higher amid overall improvement in risk moods. Bitcoin gains 2.5%, Ethereum jumps 2.6% and Dogecoin trades 1.7% higher​
  • Oil is trading 1% higher while US natural gas prices pull back 1%​
  • Precious metals trade higher as USD underperforms - gold adds 0.5% while silver and platinum trade 1.3% higher​
  • AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and USD lag the most​

Chinese CHNComp is rallying today following the release of strong official PMIs for February. Index bounced off the support zone ranging between 6,600 pts and 200-session moving average is now trading over 4% higher on the day.​

XRPUSD - Pending decision on SEC lawsuit​

This week, the XRPUSD pair resumed growth after the negative dynamics last Friday, which developed against the backdrop of the release of January data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States: the figure rose from 5.3% to 5.4% YoY. The increase in value reinforced the fears of experts in the continuation of the tightening cycle of the regulator's monetary policy, which supported the dollar and put pressure on alternative assets. On the background of these data, the price dropped to the area of 0.3655 but now it has returned to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 0.3800.

The situation on the market remains uncertain as investors await the final decision on the suit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple, which should follow soon. The agency insists that the XRP coin, like other cryptocurrencies, except for BTC, is an unregistered security. Corporation lawyers reject the accusations, stating the imperfection of the current definition of the concept of "security" and referring to the statements of the former head of the SEC, William Hinman, who claimed that the ETH token, similar to XRP, is not one. Experts believe that Ripple has a high chance of winning the process. They note that the SEC had previously initiated a similar lawsuit against blockchain platform LBRY, accusing it offering its own LBC tokens but the court ruled that LBC could only be considered a security if there was an initial coin offering (ICO). If Ripple convinces the court that there was no official initial offering, the decision could be favorable for the company, and then leading exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance will re-list XRP, and its price will rise, leveling the negative effect of American monetary policy.


Now, the trading instrument is close to the middle line of Bollinger bands 0.3800, consolidation above which will give the prospect of resuming growth to 0.4150 (Murrey level [+1/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The key “bearish” level is 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]), a breakdown of which will provide a decline to 0.3418, 0.3662 (Murrey level [6/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.38, 0.415, 0.433 | Support levels: 0.3662, 0.3418​


Crude oil price breached 77.40 level clearly to trade at 78.00 barrier now, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, and the way is open to achieve our first target at 78.90, reminding you that breaching it will push the price to 80.40 as a next main target, while holding above 77.40 represents key condition to continue the expected rise, which gets good positive support by the EMA50.


The expected trading range for today is between 76.20 support and 79.40 resistance.​
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