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2023 Commodities Forecast by Solidecn.com



Oil launched a new week's trading lower amid an overall increase in risk aversion. WTI drops below $65 per barrel and trades at the lowest level since November 2021! Declines accelerated after price dropped below a key $70-72 price zone last week. The $60-65 area is a demand zone marked with local lows from 2021 and local highs from 2019 and 2020.
There are few reasons behind a drop in oil prices:
  • Concerns over conditions of banking and financial systems in the United States and Europe. UBS will acquire Credit Suisse but it failed to ease market concerns
  • Demand in China remains weak - imports stay low, run rates in refineries drop but at the same time Chinese exports of oil derivatives are increasing, what may hint at oversupply in the country
  • Lack of interest from speculators - end-February data shows oil being extremely net oversold by speculators​
  • Goldman Sachs - one of the world's largest institutional bulls when it comes to oil - slashed Brent price 12-month ahead forecast from $100 to $94 per barrel​

WTI (OIL.WTI) drops below $65 per barrel. Price dropped to a key zone, marked with local highs and lows from previous years, as well as with the range of two largest downward impulses in recent year (2014 and 2020).​


European indices had a poor start to a new week with major indices from the Old Continent launching today's cash trading session with significant bearish price gaps. This came after a government-brokered deal for UBS to acquire Credit Suisse failed to shore up market sentiment. Issue of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds being written down to zero sparked concerns that it may be a problem for banks and financial institutions with exposure to those bonds. However, indices began to regain ground as the session progressed and all of the earlier losses have been erased already. Indices from Western Europe trade 0.5-1.0% higher on the day with German DAX adding 0.7% and French CAC40 jumping 0.9%.


Taking a look at the DE30 chart at H4 interval, we can see that another attempt at breaking below the 14,750 pts support zone was made today and once again it turned out to be a failure. Index caught a bid later on and rallied towards the psychological 15,000 pts mark. While the index managed to break above this hurdle, bulls failed to break above the 15,050 pts swing area. However, the index remains close to this resistance and another attempt to break above it later into the day cannot be ruled out.​


  • European indices erased early losses and finished today's session higher, with Dax up 1.12% as investors continued to monitor risks to the European banking sector. Credit Suisse was purchased by its competitor UBS, and global central banks' took several actions to boost dollar liquidity. ​
  • ECB President Lagarde said that Eurozone banks have capital and liquidity levels well beyond their requirements. Without the tensions, policymakers would have indicated that additional hikes were required. ​
  • The government of French President Emmanuel Macron survived a no-confidence vote by nine votes​
  • The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 gain 0.9% and 0.75% respectively while the Nasdaq is trading around the flatline despite lingering risks of the banking crisis. Traders now await the highly-anticipated 2-day FOMC meeting to kick off tomorrow. ​
  • First Republic Bank stock plunged 40.0%, extending recent heavy losses, after S&P downgraded the bank deeper into junk status and said the recent $30 billion cash infusion may not be enough to solve its liquidity problems. Buyers managed to erase some losses on news that JPMorgan Chase is advising First Republic Bank on strategic alternatives, one of which is capital raise which could dilute current shareholders. A sale of the bank is also taken into consideration.​
  • OIL.WTI briefly dropped to $64.50 which was the lowest level since early December 2021, only to erase all of the losses in the evening as moods improved a bit. Natgas price fell 5.0% and is testing support at $2.22 as average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall to 108 bcfd this week from 116.9 bcfd last week due to milder weather.​
  • Precious metals are trading higher amid a lower dollar. Gold jumped to one-year high at $2012 at the beginning of European trading as Credit Suisse bond write down fueled demand for safe haven assets. However almost all of the gains have been reversed later in the session. Silver pulled back from local resistance at $22.70. ​
  • The winner of today's FX session is the British pound, which strengthened over 0.8% against the dollar. GBPUSD pair managed to break above February 14 highs and now oscillate above the 1.2270 level.​
  • The dollar index dropped below 103.5, extending losses for the 3rd session as investors anticipate that the Fed might not hike rates as much as previously thought because of the banking crises. Not long ago, a 50 bp hike was expected, while currently markets expect at 25 bp hike or even a pause of the tightening process. ​
  • Bitcoin pulled back from 9-month high at $28,500 and is currently testing local support at $28000. Nevertheless recent turmoil of the banking sector supports digital assets and as long as current sentiment prevails crypto bulls seem to have an advantage. The key support for the most popular cryptocurrency is located around the $25,000 mark and only a break below would point to resumption of downward move.​

USDJPY currency pair has been moving in a downtrend recently. Looking at the H1 interval, buyers launched a small upward correction. If the bullish momentum gains steam, EMA100 (blue line) should be treated as the nearest resistance. In case of break higher, upward impulse may accelerate towards crucial resistance around 133.30, which is marked with the upper limit of the 1:1 structure and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.​

S & P​

Also news that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is leading discussions with other CEOs of other large US banks in an effort to provide further support, including potentially converting their $30 billion in deposits into a capital injection, only slightly calmed investors' nerves. According to Wall Street Journal, preliminary discussions have been focused on ways that the banks can boost the beleaguered banks capital. Also in play is a potential investment by the banks themselves.

Also according to CNBC, JPMorgan Chase is advising First Republic Bank on strategic alternatives, one of which is capital raise which could dilute current shareholders. A sale of the bank is also taken into consideration.


First Republic (FRC.US) stock has been in free fall recently. Last week alone, a troubled San Francisco-based lender lost nearly 70.0% of its market value. Sell-off accelerated in pre-market, however sellers failed to retest all-time low at $9.00 and buyers managed to erase some of the losses in the evening. Nevertheless, the main sentiment remains bearish and only a break above the local resistance zone around $42.25 could let to a bigger upward correction.​


The key event of the month, the FOMC interest rate decision, is ahead of us. Although the Fed's decision is always referred to as the event of the month, tomorrow's decision will be even more closely scrutinized by the market due to the lingering specter of the banking crisis in the background. The mood on Wall Street is a veritable rollercoaster at the moment, but let us try to take a look at where the US500 benchmark has been moving and what might happen in the coming days.

As we can see on the chart of the US500 contracts on the D1 interval attached below, the instrument's quotations have been moving in a very interesting technical structure for almost 2 years. The US500 broke out above the long-term downtrend line and successfully defended its outer extension, which encouraged the bulls to rise. However, we are inexorably approaching the next limitation, namely the resistance set by the uptrend initiated in the last quarter of 2022.


What will happen next? To answer this question, we need to consider the factors that are shaping current market sentiment, namely tomorrow's FED decision and the specter of a banking crisis. At the moment, the money market is pricing in an 83.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike, which seems market neutral at the moment. However, the key factor will be Powell's comments after the meeting regarding the hike cycle in the context of banking uncertainty. The risk of worsening problems in the sector will go a long way to curbing the hawkish enthusiasm of the Fed, which, remember, is in an advanced stage of tightening and seeing positive developments in the economy, such as last week's good PPI inflation reading. Today, equity market sentiment was bolstered by further comments from the US Treasury, which was reported to be looking at providing unlimited deposit guarantees (via the FDIC) if the banking crisis worsens. In the event of a dovish FED, stock markets could eagerly extend the current upward momentum and break out above resistance near 4080 points. On the other hand, if the FED maintains a firm monetary stance, a downward impulse could be initiated towards support near 3870 points.​


Alexander Novak, Russian deputy prime minister for fuel energy complex, said that the 500k barrels per day oil output cut that was ordered for March will remain in force through June. Novak said that production has not been slashed by the announced half a million barrels yet but Russia is close to achieving this target cut.


Brent (OIL) and WTI (OIL.WTI) ticked higher on the news. Oil prices jumped around 1% after Novak's comments hit headlines.​


  • US indices finished yesterday's session higher amid expectations that the Fed will tighten policy less aggressively in the evening. S&P 500 added 1.30%, Dow Jones moved 0.98% higher and Nasdaq rose 1.58%. Russell outperformed and managed to finish 1.88% higher​
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded higher today - Nikkei jumped 1.94%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.87% higher while Kospi and Nifty 50 rose 1.12% and 0.20% respectively​
  • Indices from China traded 0.2-0.45% higher​
  • DAX futures point to a lower opening of today's European cash session​
  • ECB's Nagel said that policymakers have to be "even more stubborn" in inflation fight. In his opinion Eurozone banking system is resilient, not facing repeat of 2008​
  • First Republic Bank could potentially receive government backing, according to Bloomberg ​
  • API report pointed to a 3.262 million barrel build in US oil inventories (exp. -1.448 mb)​
  • RBC analysts believe that OPEC would intervene if oil prices dropped substantially. ​
  • Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the country's current curtailed level of crude oil output would be in place through June 2023.​
  • Commerzbank lowered its 2023 midyear Brent crude oil forecast to US$80 a barrel (from $95)​
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading slightly higher today - Bitcoin gains 0.5%, Ethereum adds 0.4%​
  • Energy commodities are lower - oil drops 1.0% while US natural gas prices fell over 2.6%​
  • Precious metals little changed - silver rose 0.16%, gold trades 0.8% higher​
  • AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while USD and CHF lag the most​

Nikkei (JAP225) was one of the best performing Asian indices today. Index returned to crucial resistance at 27200 pts, which is marked with previous price reactions and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in March 2020.​


The most popular currency moved higher on Wednesday morning following a set of hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde. In her opinion policymakers are neither committed to raise further nor are yet finished with hiking rates. ECB does not see clear evidence that underlying inflation is trending downwards. The underlying inflation dynamics remain strong. Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is ready to act and provide liquidity support.


EURUSD jumped above major resistance at 1.0765 following Lagarde comments, which paves the way towards net key resistance at 1.0900. This level coincides with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the downward wave started in June 2021.​


Publication of report from the US Department of Energy caused some moves on the oil market. Crude inventories jumped unexpectedly while gasoline and distillate stockpiles dropped more than expected. ​
  • Oil inventories: +1.117mb vs -1.565 mb expected (API: +3.262 mb)​
  • Gasoline inventories: -6.4 mb vs -1.677 mb (API: -1.09 mb)​
  • Distillate inventories: -3.313 mb vs -1.5 mb (API: -1.84 mb)​
  • Oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma: - 1.063 million barrels vs -1.558 million barrels previously​

WTI Crude Oil (OIL.WTI) price bounced off local upward trendline and is testing resistance at $70.15.​


The dynamic declines on Wall Street initiated during the latter part of today's session were abruptly reversed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who stated that she would provide additional deposit support if needed. Yellen added that anti-contagion tools may be applied again. Strong actions are to be taken to ensure deposits are safe. Stock indices rebounded dynamically after the new statement.


BTC Retests 9-Month Highs​

Cryptocurrencies are gaining along with the major indices on Wall Street. Concerns about the banking crisis have eased somewhat, with investors finally taking a positive view of Fed Chairman Powell's comments yesterday. The rally continues despite news of an investigation into Justin Sun, the creator of the Tron blockchain, and subsequent fines targeting celebrities who promoted his cryptocurrency. The largest crypto exchange in the US, Coinbase (COIN.US), has received a so-called Wells notice evidencing possible enforcement and irregularities identified by the SEC regarding the assets and services offered on the platform. ​
  • The SEC maintains that all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin are securities, while the Coinbase exchange has announced a confrontation with the regulator in court. At the time of Binance US's acquisition of the assets of bankrupt Voyager, a judge dismissed the SEC's request to halt the transaction;​
  • He pointed to the unclear regulation of the industry and the incompatibility of the SEC and CFTC regulators towards what cryptocurrencies de facto are. The industry read the position as a possible preliminary precedent for wins against the SEC in other court cases. However, the bullish sentiment faded somewhat after a broader announcement from the US Securities Exchange Commission, which warned against the crypto market;​
  • SEC maintains that entities that offer cryptocurrency trading may not be operating in accordance with US law. Despite these comments, shares of the Coinbase (COIN.US) exchange managed to erase some of the losses, although still losing nearly 11%. A general increase in risk appetite is supporting the quotations of the largest cryptocurrency.​

Bitcoin, M30 interval. The price of the main cryptocurrency rebounded from the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started on 10 March and the SMA100 and SMA200 averages. It has thus resumed the bullish momentum and is testing the previous resistance near 28,500 USD. Overcoming 28,800 USD could open the way for the bulls to rally towards 30,000 USD.​

DE 30​

  • Indices from Asia-Pacific launched new week's trading mixed - Nikkei traded 0.4% higher, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.1% higher, Kospi dropped 0.2% and Nifty 50 added 0.2%. Indices from China traded 0.2-0.8% lower​
  • Major European and US index futures are trading over 1% above Friday's cash closing prices​
  • DAX futures trade almost 300 points, or around 2%, above Friday's cash close while S&P 500 futures 50 points higher, or around 1.2%​
  • Silicon Valley Bank was sold to First Citizens with around $72 billion worth of assets being purchased at a $16.5 billion discount as part of the deal. All deposits assumed by First Citizens will be insured by FDIC up to the insurance limit​
  • First Citizens will also receive a line of credit from FDIC for unforseen liquidity events​
  • Russian President Putin announced that Russia will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in response to Western countries increasing military support to Ukraine, especially UK providing Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition​
  • ECB Schnabel noted that headline inflation began to fall, but core gauges are more sticky. She said that financial stress have so far been limited mainly to financial markets​
  • Fed Kashkari said that ongoing banking sector stress could bring the US closer to recession by triggering a credit crunch. However, he has noted that deposit outflow from smaller US banks have slowed and that confidence is being restored​
  • According to Reuters report, Russia is considering extending limits of fertilizer exports by another six months, until November​
  • Riksbank Governor Thedeen said that inflation is developing worse than it was previously thought and that another rate hike in April may be needed​
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading higher at the beginning of a new week - Bitcoin gains 1.4%, Ethereum trades 1.3% higher and Ripple jumps 1.7%. Dogecoin lags and drops 0.2%​
  • Energy commodities trade mixed - oil gains 0.6% while US natural gas prices drop 1.2%​
  • Precious metals are pulling back - gold drops 0.3%, silver trades 0.8% lower while platinum and palladium dip around 0.1% each​
  • EUR and AUD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and NZD lag the most​


Futures markets point to a positive opening of a new week in Europe with German DAX futures (DE30) trading almost 300 points above Friday's cash close. Index is attempting to break above a mid-term resistance in the 15,250 pts area.​


The largest cryptocurrency has fallen below $28,000 on a wave of general risk asset aversion on exchanges and news from the Binance exchange. Ethereum and smaller projects are also losing ground. The downward movement accelerated after the largest cryptocurrency exchange announced that it had temporarily halted spot cryptocurrency trading on the platform, for as yet unexplained technical reasons.


Bitcoin, H1 interval. The price has failed to overcome the $28 800 level and has formed a bearish double peak formation. The potential scope of the correction may stop at the SMA200 (red line) or at the level of the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave initiated on 10 March, i.e. at the level of $26 700, which also coincides with the decline after the Fed decision. A potential retracement deeper could foreshadow that sellers would want to test the 38.2 Fibo retracement at $24,000.


Ethereum, H1 interval. In the event of a deepening correction on Ethereum, key support is located in the region of $1710 -$1694.​


The shares of Swiss company Novartis (NOVN.CH) are gaining more than 5 per cent early in today's session on the back of successful clinical trials of the drug Kisqali, which helps in the fight against breast cancer.

As detailed studies have shown, the drug can prevent recurrence in a broad population and extends life expectancy for patients facing cancer. As Jefferies analysts added - "The data suggest that the treatment can reduce the risk of the cancer returning after several years without a negative change in quality of life. The broad patient population that could benefit from the drug opens up a market of nearly $6bn for Novartis."

Positive trial results are likely to benefit the company's financial performance and increase consensus over the longer term.


The company's shares are currently testing a zone of resistance defined by the confluence of the 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages.​


Oil is catching a bid this week. Crude prices rallied yesterday with WTI jumping around 5%. The move is being continued this morning, although the scale of gains is not as big as yesterday, at least not yet. Gains are driven by an overall improvement in market sentiment, with concerns over the condition of the banking sector in Europe and the United States slowly fading. Today's move higher may also be supported by comments from the Russian Energy Minister who said that he expects Russian oil and gas production to decline in 2023. However, this can be hardly seen as news as a drop in Russian output has been foreseen as an aftermath of the West imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.


Taking a look at WTI chart (OIL.WTI) at D1 interval, we can see that price is attempting to break above the $73.00 resistance zone that served as the lower limit of a previously broken trading range. While price is trading almost 15% above a daily low from March 20, 2023, technical setup is not bullish yet. In order for it to become more bullish, a break above the $81.20 resistance zone would be needed as this is where previous local high, the upper limit of Overbalance structure and previous price reactions can be found.​

Binance sued by CFTC - Crypto in retreat​

US regulator CFTC is suing cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao due to issues related to violation of trading rules and derivatives. The news triggered a sharp sell-off of Binancecoin. Bitcoin also took a hit and dropped below the 28,000 mark. Nevertheless, at the moment Binancecoin is losing less than 2%.


FRA40 pulls back as investors continue to follow the banking turmoil​

FRA40 and other major European indices gave back most of early gains in the afternoon amid renewed concerns over the European banking sector. French prosecutors raided five banks including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and HSBC as part of an investigation into suspected cases of tax fraud and money laundering related to dividend payments. Meanwhile, protests against the pension reform continue and strikes entered a 10th day on Tuesday, with public transport disrupted and deliveries halted. From a technical point of view, the French index pulled back as buyers failed to break above 50 SMA (green line) around 7180 pts. If sellers manage to uphold control, downward move may deepen towards upward trendline or even crucial support zone in the region 6550 pts - 6650 pts, which is marked with lower limit of the 1:1 structure, 200 SMA (red line) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in March 2020.


CHNCComp - Chart of the Day​

HSCEI (CHNComp) was one of the best performing Asian indices during today's Asia-Pacific trading session. The index jumped over 2% today and painted a daily peak at 3-week high. Improved sentiment towards Chinese shares can be reasoned with recent performance of Alibaba (BABA.US) as the index and the stock are highly correlated. According to a Bloomberg report, Alibaba aims to divide the company into 6 different entities with each being responsible for its own financing and decisions like going public. This news triggered an over-14% increase in Alibaba's share price yesterday.


Taking a look at CHNComp chart at D1 interval, we can see that while the index managed to climb above the price zone ranging between 6,600 pts mark and 200-session moving average (purple line), it was later halted at 50-session moving average (green line) in the 7,000 pts area. What comes next will be crucial from a technical point of view. An inverse head and shoulders pattern can be spotted building up on the chart - a bullish pattern. However, a pullback towards the aforementioned 6,600 pts area would be needed for the pattern to take shape.​


Cryptocurrencies are rebounding today despite the still-uncertain news about the conflict between the CFTC and the Binance exchange. Among all the projects, Ripple (XRP) stands out again. Fintech company Ripple will hold a closed-door consultation with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 30. The market took the news of the warring parties meeting in court as a signal of a potential settlement. Bringing it about would be a victory for the entire decentralized finance sector in the States. It would undermine the SEC's decision-making role and reduce the fear of the prospect of restrictions proposed by Gary Gensler.​
  • Ripple is cited by many analysts as one of the future foundations of a digital financial infrastructure based on blockchain technology. For example, recently Ripple's blockchain was able to process a $755 million transaction, in 4 seconds, for a fee of tenths of a dollar (0.01 XRP). By the crypto market, the company is seen as a major competitor to the interbank market, which charges high commissions for processing international transfers;​
  • Iron Key Capital analysts point to Ripple as a winner in the multi-billion dollar global payments market. In addition to Ripple itself, cryptocurrencies Stellar and Algorand are also gaining today. Both of them, along with Ripple, have been pointed out as being integrated into the new ISO20022 international settlement standard. This system will replace the SWIFT standard in the coming years. Ripple's victory with the SEC is expected by Ark Invest fund manager CathieWood, among others;​
  • The next few weeks may bring a 'rally under the event' in the price of Ripple tokens. A similar course of events is characteristic of the crypto market at the same time as it often ends in a sell-off (profit realization, so-called 'fact selling', as the decisive moment is very close. This was the case, among others, with the price of Cardano, which implemented smart contract technology in September 2021, and Ethereum Merge, in the summer of 2022.​


The largest holders of Ripple so called 'whales' have increased their buying activity in view of the upcoming SEC decision.


Ripple chart, D1 interval. The price has overcome the key resistance near $0.55, set by previous price reactions. The chart, which resembles a technical saucer formation, may indicate a more permanent reversal of the downward trend.​
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US100 gains over 1%​

China's tech sector rebound fuels gains on Nasdaq

US100 futures are gaining, as a higher opening in Asia and euphoria on Alibaba shares have improved sentiment around the technology sector. Analysts have been very wary of Chinese tech stocks in recent years, fearing direct government intervention in their business and margins. So far, however, China is positioning itself as a free-market economy, allowing it to compete with the United States. A few months ago, representatives of Chinese authorities at the Davos Economic Forum asserted that, contrary to Western fears, the country does not intend to centralize power and completely subordinate the financial market party. In addition, reports from the Washington Post indicated that President Joe Biden is expected to present new banking regulations. The White House was prompted to create them by the SVB bankruptcy. The Nasdaq is attempting to close the quarter with its best performance since 2020, and after several weeks of turmoil in the banking sector, investors appear 'jaded' by news of the prospect of a crisis. US bank valuations are still far from a meaningful upward correction and Joe Biden has warned that the banking crisis is far from over, against which buyers have shifted from the 'risky' financial sector to the technology market.

Another supportive factor for US equities is the sharply losing VIX index, which is seen by investors as a barometer of market fear. Compiled by the CBOE, the index extends a 1.5-week-long downward impulse.


The US100 index is trying to maintain the bullish momentum initiated 2 weeks ago, and the declining VIX may support the buyers' side even now. However, it is worth watching tomorrow and Friday's session, when we will know many interesting macro readings from the US economy.​
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