Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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GBPAUD Technical and Fundamental Forecast H4

The GBP/AUD forex pair, often referred to as the “Pound Aussie,” represents the exchange rate between the British Pound Sterling and the Australian Dollar. This cross-currency pair is influenced by the economic policies, trade dynamics, and macroeconomic data from both the UK and Australia, making it popular among traders who look for volatility and trend-driven opportunities. Its price action reflects a blend of the UK’s financial strength and Australia’s commodity-linked economy, creating diverse trading setups for both short-term and long-term strategies. Fundamentally, today’s GBP/AUD outlook is shaped by upcoming UK data releases, including the British Retail Consortium (BRC) like-for-like retail sales, average earnings, jobless claims, and unemployment rate, alongside Australia’s NAB business confidence report. Stronger-than-expected UK retail and labor market data could boost GBP, signaling a healthier consumer environment and increased inflationary pressure, potentially supporting a more hawkish Bank of England stance. Conversely, upbeat Australian business confidence, backed by stable or optimistic Reserve Bank of Australia policy expectations, could strengthen the AUD. With both economies facing key macroeconomic reports, volatility is likely to increase, and traders will be closely watching for shifts in interest rate expectations and economic momentum to guide GBP/AUD direction in the short term.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the GBP/AUD H4 chart shows that the pair remains in a long-term upward movement, with candles recently approaching the long-term green support line — a likely reason for the recent sideways consolidation within the purple range. If bullish momentum continues, the first target lies at 2.07359, a level where price has reacted repeatedly before. A break above that could see price testing the second target zone around 2.10071, an area previously broken and retested, and which has recently acted as strong resistance. A clear breakout above this zone would signal a continuation of the uptrend. The MACD histogram is hovering near -0.00002, with the MACD line at 0.00237 and the signal line at 0.00239, indicating a slightly bullish bias but still lacking strong momentum. The RSI is at 56.72, suggesting moderate bullish strength without overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside if fundamental catalysts align.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

USD/JPY Steadies Ahead of Key Fed Speeches

The USD/JPY forex pair, representing the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, is a major currency pair widely followed for its sensitivity to both US monetary policy developments and Japan’s economic performance. It reflects the interplay between the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and the Bank of Japan’s inflation and growth outlook, making it a popular choice for traders seeking macro-driven opportunities. Today’s USD/JPY outlook is shaped by a heavy lineup of US events, including speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials—Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic—each capable of signaling shifts in policy tone ahead of future FOMC decisions. Weekly US crude oil inventory data from both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) may also influence broader market sentiment and the dollar via risk appetite and inflation expectations. On the Japanese side, the latest Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) and preliminary machine tool orders data will be in focus as leading indicators of inflation and industrial momentum. Stronger-than-expected US Fed commentary paired with supportive oil market dynamics could lift the dollar, while upbeat Japanese pricing and manufacturing data might bolster the yen, setting the stage for potential volatility in USD/JPY as traders gauge interest rate differentials and economic resilience on both sides of the Pacific.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the uploaded USD/JPY H4 chart shows the pair recovering modestly from a recent bearish wave, with price testing the flat Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a potential support area around 147. The RSI indicator reflects a shift from bearish momentum to bullish, currently hovering near the 50 neutral level, suggesting cautious optimism for upward price action. Key support zones lie near 147 and 146.2, while resistance levels are positioned at 148.5 and 149.3, highlighting critical areas to watch for potential breakouts or reversals. This aligns well with price action patterns on related pairs like USDJPY, where technical setups and fundamental catalysts combine to drive market sentiment.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

S&P 500 H4 Chart Bullish Channel Analysis

The S&P 500 Index, often referred to as the “SPX” or simply “the S&P,” is one of the most widely followed equity benchmarks in the world, tracking the performance of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the United States. It serves as a key barometer of U.S. economic health and investor sentiment, making it a cornerstone for global market participants. Today’s focus is on its 4-hour chart price action and fundamental catalysts. On the fundamental side, markets are awaiting a cluster of high-impact U.S. data releases, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI, which will provide insight into wholesale inflation trends and potential future consumer price pressures. Alongside these, weekly jobless claims will shed light on labor market resilience, while speeches from FOMC members Alberto Musalem and Thomas Barkin may influence rate expectations. Traders will also watch for mortgage delinquency data and natural gas storage figures for broader economic signals. Stronger-than-expected PPI or hawkish Fed commentary could strengthen the USD and weigh on equities, while softer readings or dovish tones may support continued bullish momentum in the S&P 500.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 H4 chart shows that after a sharp and sudden bearish trend, the market has entered a steady bullish momentum, moving within an ascending price channel. If the bulls maintain control, price could push toward the upper band of the channel; however, the visible divergence in the MACD indicators signals a potential shift in trend. If a pullback occurs, the first key support is at 6453.96, a level that has seen repeated price reactions, followed by the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 6433.37. MACD readings show the histogram at 4.74, the MACD line at 26.64, and the signal line at 21.90, indicating waning bullish momentum. The Williams %R is at -15.57, placing the market near overbought territory, which further supports the possibility of a short-term correction before any sustained upward move.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Kiwi Short Term Price Action Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar (NZDUSD), commonly nicknamed the “Kiwi,” is a major forex pair that reflects the relative strength of New Zealand’s economy against the US. Today, the NZD is influenced by a combination of domestic economic data and US macroeconomic indicators. On the fundamental side, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index and Food Price Index releases are expected to provide insights into local economic activity and inflation trends, while US Retail Sales, New York Manufacturing Index, Import Price Index, and other consumer spending and production reports will heavily impact USD strength. Positive US data may boost the dollar, applying downward pressure on NZD-USD, whereas stronger-than-expected NZ data could support Kiwi gains. Traders should closely monitor these releases, as shifts in consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and manufacturing output will likely drive short-term volatility in the NZD/USD daily chart and H4 price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the NZD USD H4 chart, the pair is currently moving in a short-term bearish trend, trading below a well-defined red descending trend line that has been tested three times. The Kiwi price has reached the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the long-term bullish blue trend line, creating a strong support zone. After touching this level, a green candle formed, suggesting a short-term correction. Price action is currently interacting with the Ichimoku Cloud, moving along its lower band, which has acted as additional support. The cloud itself is green, indicating potential bullish momentum if buyers step in. The %R indicator is at -89.9, recently turning upward but still in the oversold territory below -80%, signaling a possible rebound. Overall, this H4 setup suggests that while bearish momentum dominates short-term moves, the support confluence at the 0.236 Fibonacci level and lower cloud band could trigger corrective upward movement, offering traders potential buy opportunities within the context of the overall downtrend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore