Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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GBPAUD Technical and Fundamental Forecast H4

The GBP/AUD forex pair, often referred to as the “Pound Aussie,” represents the exchange rate between the British Pound Sterling and the Australian Dollar. This cross-currency pair is influenced by the economic policies, trade dynamics, and macroeconomic data from both the UK and Australia, making it popular among traders who look for volatility and trend-driven opportunities. Its price action reflects a blend of the UK’s financial strength and Australia’s commodity-linked economy, creating diverse trading setups for both short-term and long-term strategies. Fundamentally, today’s GBP/AUD outlook is shaped by upcoming UK data releases, including the British Retail Consortium (BRC) like-for-like retail sales, average earnings, jobless claims, and unemployment rate, alongside Australia’s NAB business confidence report. Stronger-than-expected UK retail and labor market data could boost GBP, signaling a healthier consumer environment and increased inflationary pressure, potentially supporting a more hawkish Bank of England stance. Conversely, upbeat Australian business confidence, backed by stable or optimistic Reserve Bank of Australia policy expectations, could strengthen the AUD. With both economies facing key macroeconomic reports, volatility is likely to increase, and traders will be closely watching for shifts in interest rate expectations and economic momentum to guide GBP/AUD direction in the short term.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the GBP/AUD H4 chart shows that the pair remains in a long-term upward movement, with candles recently approaching the long-term green support line — a likely reason for the recent sideways consolidation within the purple range. If bullish momentum continues, the first target lies at 2.07359, a level where price has reacted repeatedly before. A break above that could see price testing the second target zone around 2.10071, an area previously broken and retested, and which has recently acted as strong resistance. A clear breakout above this zone would signal a continuation of the uptrend. The MACD histogram is hovering near -0.00002, with the MACD line at 0.00237 and the signal line at 0.00239, indicating a slightly bullish bias but still lacking strong momentum. The RSI is at 56.72, suggesting moderate bullish strength without overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside if fundamental catalysts align.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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USD/JPY Steadies Ahead of Key Fed Speeches

The USD/JPY forex pair, representing the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, is a major currency pair widely followed for its sensitivity to both US monetary policy developments and Japan’s economic performance. It reflects the interplay between the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and the Bank of Japan’s inflation and growth outlook, making it a popular choice for traders seeking macro-driven opportunities. Today’s USD/JPY outlook is shaped by a heavy lineup of US events, including speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials—Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic—each capable of signaling shifts in policy tone ahead of future FOMC decisions. Weekly US crude oil inventory data from both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) may also influence broader market sentiment and the dollar via risk appetite and inflation expectations. On the Japanese side, the latest Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) and preliminary machine tool orders data will be in focus as leading indicators of inflation and industrial momentum. Stronger-than-expected US Fed commentary paired with supportive oil market dynamics could lift the dollar, while upbeat Japanese pricing and manufacturing data might bolster the yen, setting the stage for potential volatility in USD/JPY as traders gauge interest rate differentials and economic resilience on both sides of the Pacific.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the uploaded USD/JPY H4 chart shows the pair recovering modestly from a recent bearish wave, with price testing the flat Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a potential support area around 147. The RSI indicator reflects a shift from bearish momentum to bullish, currently hovering near the 50 neutral level, suggesting cautious optimism for upward price action. Key support zones lie near 147 and 146.2, while resistance levels are positioned at 148.5 and 149.3, highlighting critical areas to watch for potential breakouts or reversals. This aligns well with price action patterns on related pairs like USDJPY, where technical setups and fundamental catalysts combine to drive market sentiment.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

S&P 500 H4 Chart Bullish Channel Analysis

The S&P 500 Index, often referred to as the “SPX” or simply “the S&P,” is one of the most widely followed equity benchmarks in the world, tracking the performance of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the United States. It serves as a key barometer of U.S. economic health and investor sentiment, making it a cornerstone for global market participants. Today’s focus is on its 4-hour chart price action and fundamental catalysts. On the fundamental side, markets are awaiting a cluster of high-impact U.S. data releases, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI, which will provide insight into wholesale inflation trends and potential future consumer price pressures. Alongside these, weekly jobless claims will shed light on labor market resilience, while speeches from FOMC members Alberto Musalem and Thomas Barkin may influence rate expectations. Traders will also watch for mortgage delinquency data and natural gas storage figures for broader economic signals. Stronger-than-expected PPI or hawkish Fed commentary could strengthen the USD and weigh on equities, while softer readings or dovish tones may support continued bullish momentum in the S&P 500.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 H4 chart shows that after a sharp and sudden bearish trend, the market has entered a steady bullish momentum, moving within an ascending price channel. If the bulls maintain control, price could push toward the upper band of the channel; however, the visible divergence in the MACD indicators signals a potential shift in trend. If a pullback occurs, the first key support is at 6453.96, a level that has seen repeated price reactions, followed by the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 6433.37. MACD readings show the histogram at 4.74, the MACD line at 26.64, and the signal line at 21.90, indicating waning bullish momentum. The Williams %R is at -15.57, placing the market near overbought territory, which further supports the possibility of a short-term correction before any sustained upward move.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

Kiwi Short Term Price Action Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar (NZDUSD), commonly nicknamed the “Kiwi,” is a major forex pair that reflects the relative strength of New Zealand’s economy against the US. Today, the NZD is influenced by a combination of domestic economic data and US macroeconomic indicators. On the fundamental side, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index and Food Price Index releases are expected to provide insights into local economic activity and inflation trends, while US Retail Sales, New York Manufacturing Index, Import Price Index, and other consumer spending and production reports will heavily impact USD strength. Positive US data may boost the dollar, applying downward pressure on NZD-USD, whereas stronger-than-expected NZ data could support Kiwi gains. Traders should closely monitor these releases, as shifts in consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and manufacturing output will likely drive short-term volatility in the NZD/USD daily chart and H4 price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the NZD USD H4 chart, the pair is currently moving in a short-term bearish trend, trading below a well-defined red descending trend line that has been tested three times. The Kiwi price has reached the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the long-term bullish blue trend line, creating a strong support zone. After touching this level, a green candle formed, suggesting a short-term correction. Price action is currently interacting with the Ichimoku Cloud, moving along its lower band, which has acted as additional support. The cloud itself is green, indicating potential bullish momentum if buyers step in. The %R indicator is at -89.9, recently turning upward but still in the oversold territory below -80%, signaling a possible rebound. Overall, this H4 setup suggests that while bearish momentum dominates short-term moves, the support confluence at the 0.236 Fibonacci level and lower cloud band could trigger corrective upward movement, offering traders potential buy opportunities within the context of the overall downtrend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

BTCUSD Chart Key Levels and Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC), often nicknamed “digital gold”, is the most traded cryptocurrency against the US Dollar (USD) and remains a major focus for both retail and institutional traders. Today, upcoming USD news from the NAHB Housing Market Index could influence BTC/USD sentiment, as stronger-than-expected home builder confidence often strengthens the USD and may put short-term pressure on BTC/USD. Investors should watch for this monthly release, as it signals economic health in the US housing sector and can impact crypto-to-fiat price action, especially during periods of high volatility and retracement from all-time highs.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the H4 chart, BTC/USD recently corrected after reaching a new all-time high (ATH) near $124,500. The long-term bullish trend line has acted as dynamic support near the lower Bollinger Band (~$116,000), aligning closely with the horizontal support at $116,934. Following this, the price has started a rebound toward the middle Bollinger Band and is forming a fresh green candle. Immediate resistance is observed around $119,259–$120,000, which has historically acted as a strong reversal zone. The Williams %R at -85.17 shows oversold conditions with a slight corrective move toward -80, indicating potential upward momentum. Overall, BTC/USD shows a bullish retracement within a long-term uptrend, with key levels to watch for breakout or reversal near $120,000 and $124,500.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

EURUSD Chart Technical Setup and Price Action Outlook

The EUR/USD, often referred to as the “Fiber”, is the world’s most traded currency pair, representing the Euro against the US Dollar. Known for its high liquidity and volatility, it is heavily influenced by macroeconomic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments. Today’s focus for traders is on the Eurozone’s Producer Price Index (PPI), CPI reports, and a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde, all of which could provide crucial clues about inflationary pressures and monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, from the US side, markets are awaiting Federal Reserve speeches and energy data that could influence USD sentiment. Stronger Eurozone inflation data or hawkish ECB remarks may provide support to the Euro, while a hawkish Fed tone or safe-haven demand for the Dollar amid geopolitical headlines could weigh on the pair. This tug-of-war sets the stage for heightened volatility in the EUR/USD daily chart technical and fundamental analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical perspective on the EUR/USD H4 chart, the price is currently consolidating between the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1708 and the 0.618 Fibonacci support around 1.1643, trapped between two converging trend lines. A long-term bullish trendline starting from February 2025 has provided consistent support, showing that the pair has been in a general uptrend throughout 2025, albeit with several corrections. On the other hand, a bearish descending trendline from July 2025 continues to act as resistance, preventing a breakout to the upside. The pair is ranging within these opposing pressures, and traders must watch closely which boundary will break first. Currently, the price action is leaning towards the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the lower band acting as short-term support. Additionally, the Williams %R indicator at -88.46 signals oversold conditions, suggesting that a potential technical rebound may occur unless fundamental catalysts push the pair lower. For now, the EUR/USD price action outlook remains neutral-to-cautiously bullish, pending confirmation from upcoming news events.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

Dow Jones Daily Chart Fundamentals and Indicators Review

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, widely recognized as the "US30" and affectionately nicknamed "the Dow," is one of the most prominent equity indices, comprising 30 significant publicly traded companies in the United States. It serves as a vital indicator of the U.S. economic landscape. Fundamentally, today's focus is directed toward several key economic events, including a speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, anticipated jobless claims data, manufacturing and services PMI figures, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, existing home sales, and changes in natural gas inventories. Investors will closely monitor President Bostic's commentary on monetary policy, alongside employment and purchasing managers' indices data, as positive outcomes here are expected to bolster market confidence and support bullish sentiment for the US30.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical perspective, analyzing the Dow Jones US30 4-hour chart, the candles have been consistently aligning with a bullish trendline, despite a single unsuccessful breakout attempt, suggesting strong bullish dominance. Currently, price action has entered a corrective phase and trades sideways around the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.236. A breakout below the support seems improbable given the prevailing bullish momentum; however, continued corrective movements could lead the index toward the Fibonacci level 0.382. Conversely, bullish continuation would likely target the previous resistance high around 45341. Bollinger Bands indicate consolidation with bands narrowing, signaling an imminent expansion and potential volatility. The middle band currently aligns with the latest candle, suggesting near-term equilibrium. The MACD histogram is positioned at -20, the MACD line at 18, below the signal line at 37, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the short term. RSI is hovering at approximately 49.85, reflecting a neutral momentum stance.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

USD CAD chart bullish trend continuation outlook

The USD/CAD forex pair, known as the "Loonie," reflects the exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar and Canadian Dollar, and is a key pair for traders following North American economic ties. Today’s USD focus is on a series of high-impact Federal Reserve events, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack scheduled to speak, while the centerpiece is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Any hawkish tone could strengthen the U.S. Dollar, as traders will interpret it as a signal for prolonged higher interest rates. On the Canadian side, Retail Sales data will be released, providing insight into consumer demand. Strong figures could support the CAD, but any weakness may weigh on the currency, particularly if Powell signals further Fed tightening. Given the significance of today’s U.S. and Canadian news, volatility in USD/CAD is expected, making this a critical session for both fundamental and technical traders analyzing the USD/CAD daily chart technical and fundamental analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the USD/CAD H4 chart technical analysis, the price shows a correction is being started after the long and strong bearish trend that happened from February 2025. As visible in the image, the pair is now moving upward, signaling a bullish reversal. The Ichimoku indicator supports this trend as the price trades above the green cloud. The lower band of the cloud is flat, while the upper band is moving higher, and the cloud has widened slightly, which confirms strengthening bullish momentum. The cloud being green further reinforces this bullish sentiment. Additionally, the %R indicator currently sits at -12.20, indicating that the pair is in overbought conditions, meaning that while momentum remains strong to the upside, traders should anticipate potential short-term pullbacks or consolidation before another leg higher. This aligns with price action analysis that suggests the USD/CAD bullish trend continuation is intact on the H4 timeframe.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Kiwi Dollar Technical and Fundamental Insights

The NZD/USD forex pair, often nicknamed the “Kiwi”, represents the exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar and the US Dollar. This pair is widely followed by traders for its sensitivity to commodity prices, interest rate differentials, and economic indicators from both New Zealand and the United States.
From a fundamental perspective, today’s NZD/USD price action is likely to be influenced by New Zealand’s retail sales data, which measures the total value and volume of inflation-adjusted sales, including and excluding automobiles and gas stations. Stronger-than-expected retail sales, signaling robust consumer spending, would typically be bullish for NZD. On the USD side, traders will focus on the New Residential Sales data and any hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan. Positive U.S. housing data or hawkish signals could strengthen the USD and apply downward pressure on NZD/USD. Considering these releases, the Kiwi may experience short-term volatility, with potential rebounds if NZ retail sales surprise on the upside, but downward pressure could persist if U.S. indicators are stronger than expected.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the H4 chart of NZD/USD, the price is moving in a bearish trend within a downward channel, fluctuating between the upper and lower channel boundaries. Recently, after touching the bottom of the channel, the price rebounded toward the middle, yet it remains below the Ichimoku Cloud, which has expanded and turned red, signaling continued bearish momentum. The last candle is near the Ichimoku Base Line (Kijun-sen), which has acted as resistance so far. Additionally, the %R 14 indicator is at -11.01, indicating the pair is approaching overbought levels in the short-term bounce, suggesting that the bearish trend may resume after the current corrective move. Overall, NZD/USD is showing bearish dominance with short-term upward corrections, and traders should watch the Ichimoku levels and %R for potential reversals or continuation of the downtrend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

Technical Correction or Bullish Resumption for GBP USD

GBP/USD, commonly referred to as "Cable," is one of the most widely traded forex pairs globally. It represents the British Pound against the US Dollar and is known for its volatility and liquidity. Today, fundamental analysis highlights key economic events influencing both currencies. For GBP, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) price data release and a speech by Bank of England MPC Member Catherine Mann could impact sentiment, especially if the BRC figures indicate rising inflation or if Mann hints at a more hawkish monetary stance. On the USD side, speeches from Federal Reserve officials John Williams and Thomas Barkin, combined with reports on Durable Goods Orders and housing indices, could drive volatility—particularly if hawkish tones or stronger-than-expected economic data emerge, supporting the dollar's strength.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the GBP/USD H4 chart reveals an overall bullish trend currently undergoing a bearish correction. The recent price action suggests the correction phase might have concluded, with prices stabilizing around the 0.236 Fibonacci expansion level. If bullish momentum resumes, targets at 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci levels are likely. However, continued bearish pressure could see the pair testing support around the historically significant 1.33989 level. Ichimoku analysis indicates a flat Senkou Span B above current candles, suggesting possible consolidation. MACD shows the histogram at 0.00058, with the MACD line just above zero at 0.00007 and the signal line at -0.00051, implying tentative bullish signals. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers near neutral at 46.33, indicating market indecision.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Key Consumer Sentiment

EUR/USD, the most actively traded currency pair in the world, reflects the euro against the US dollar and is heavily influenced by macroeconomic events on both sides of the Atlantic. Today, euro traders are focused on the release of NIQ’s consumer sentiment index, which gauges optimism or pessimism among households and serves as a leading indicator for spending trends in the eurozone. A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster the euro by signaling resilience in consumer confidence. On the US side, attention turns to energy-related data, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventory reports scheduled this week. Although typically more impactful for oil-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar, sharp swings in oil supply-demand dynamics can spill over into USD sentiment through inflation expectations. Additionally, a speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin, titled “Why the Consumer Matters”, is closely watched for policy cues; any hawkish tone reinforcing tighter monetary policy could strengthen the dollar, driving volatility in EUR/USD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the EUR/USD H4 chart shows the pair consolidating within a key support zone around 1.1600–1.1570, marked by repeated price reactions. The Ichimoku Cloud highlights ongoing indecision, with candles fluctuating inside the cloud and a downward sloping trendline suggesting persistent bearish pressure. However, the RSI is positioned near neutral at 47, reflecting market indecision rather than strong directional momentum. Meanwhile, the ATR at 0.00309 signals relatively low volatility, pointing to subdued price swings in the near term. A breakout above the descending trendline could trigger bullish continuation toward the 1.1700 zone, while sustained selling pressure may drive the pair below the highlighted support, opening the path toward 1.1500.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

USDCAD Price Analysis and Movement Outlook

Based on the upcoming economic events, the USDCAD pair, nicknamed the "Loonie" due to the Canadian one-dollar coin featuring a loon, is poised for a volatile day. The fundamental outlook is complex as multiple high-impact US data releases clash with a single, but significant, Canadian GDP report. With Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech on monetary policy, the US dollar's strength will be heavily influenced by any hawkish remarks about interest rates and inflation containment, particularly ahead of the US Core PCE price index release - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-forecast Core PCE, coupled with positive readings from other reports like Personal Income and Expenditures, the Chicago PMI, and UoM consumer sentiment, could signal a resilient US economy, providing strong bullish momentum for the USD. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected Canadian GDP figure would further disadvantage the Canadian dollar, potentially reinforcing the bullish USD/CAD forex trend. Traders will be closely monitoring these releases for price action clues on the USD CAD daily chart technical analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USD/CAD H4 live chart technical analysis today shows the pair is in a long-term slightly bullish trend, but has recently experienced a short-term bearish correction. The Loonie price has moved from around 1.39250 to 1.37400 over the last six days. However, recent price action suggests a potential reversal as the last two candles have corrected upward after touching a key support level, which is highlighted by a red box. This support level will be a crucial point to watch for traders. A significant challenge for the bulls is the bearish trend line, which is acting as the first resistance. A breakout above this trend line and the red rectangle would be a bullish signal and a key confirmation of a sustained upward move. The price is also trading below the red Ichimoku cloud, which has expanded and whose bands are moving downward, signaling a strong bearish sentiment in the short-term forex trend. Additionally, the Williams %R 14 indicator is at -90.02, which indicates that the pair is significantly oversold, and supports the possibility of an upward correction or a trend reversal. Traders should look for a break of the bearish trend line and the Ichimoku cloud to confirm a new bullish price action.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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