🧩News Recap & Tomorrow’s Outlook

[Attila]

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High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 22, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CAD, AUD

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12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A shift back into contraction suggests producer costs are easing, potentially relieving inflationary pressures downstream.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Rising annual producer prices indicate inflationary momentum may be returning. Sustained pressure here could complicate BoC’s policy stance.

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23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 55.5
Currency: AUD
Market lens:
A sharp slowdown toward the 50 threshold signals weaker overall activity, raising concerns about momentum in both manufacturing and services.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 55.8
Currency: AUD
Trading angle:
The services sector cooling sharply reflects fading demand. A reading near 50 would pressure AUD as growth risks rise.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.7 | Previous: 53.0
Currency: AUD
Market read:
Manufacturing resilience stands out, though still weaker than earlier months. A stable result cushions downside risks for AUD.

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Monday features Canada’s producer price data to gauge inflation momentum, followed by a trio of Australian PMI releases. With services and composite indices sliding, investors will watch whether manufacturing strength is enough to offset broader weakness.

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Geopolitical Watch: Conflicts, Protests, and Sanctions Shaping Market Sentiment​

In the Americas, Venezuela launched large-scale military drills with Russian jets and naval forces in defiance of U.S. warships in the Caribbean. Moving east, Europe saw France rocked by mass anti-austerity strikes while the EU pushed a 19th sanctions package on Russia, potentially targeting LNG. In the Middle East, Israel struck Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, testing the fragile ceasefire. Across the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey warned Cyprus over new Israeli-made air-defense systems as it prepared for a Sept. 23 UNGA meeting with Greece on Aegean disputes. In the Pacific, Australia and Papua New Guinea signed a defence communique after a treaty stalled, with Canberra calling it its first new alliance in 70 years as Beijing closely monitors developments.

Collectively, these flashpoints added to global uncertainty, pressuring energy markets, risk sentiment, and safe-haven flows.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 23, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, GBP, USD

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07:30 GMT
Germany – HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.0 | Previous: 49.8
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
A move above 50 would mark the first expansion in months. Even a marginal gain boosts sentiment for Europe’s largest economy.

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08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.8 | Previous: 54.2
Currency: GBP
Why it matters:
Services dominate the UK economy. Holding above 50 reflects resilience, but continued slippage could dampen sterling.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 47.0
Currency: GBP
Market lens:
The sector remains in contraction, but a smaller decline suggests the bottoming process may be underway.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.9 | Previous: 53.5
Currency: GBP
Trading angle:
A slight dip in the combined index reflects softer services offsetting weak manufacturing. Markets look for confirmation of broader stability.

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13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.1 | Previous: 55.1
Currency: USD
Market read:
Momentum eases but remains firmly expansionary. Investors gauge whether demand is moderating after a hot summer.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 54.5
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
A second straight decline suggests demand is cooling. Markets will watch if this signals a turning point for U.S. growth.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 53.0
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Manufacturing loses steam but remains above 50, signaling expansion. Sustained moderation could cap USD gains.

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14:00 GMT
United States – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -10 | Previous: -7
Currency: USD
Snapshot:
Another negative reading reflects contraction in the regional sector. Traders look for alignment with national PMI trends.

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16:35 GMT
United States – Fed Chair Powell Speech
Currency: USD
Fast track:
Powell’s remarks may clarify the Fed’s rate path. Any hawkish tilt could strengthen USD; dovish cues may spur risk assets.

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Tuesday is PMI day across Europe, the UK, and the U.S., giving a broad read on global growth momentum. Germany’s manufacturing gauge could signal recovery, while UK and U.S. services highlight whether demand is softening. Powell’s speech later anchors the session, setting the tone for Fed policy expectations.

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash - 21 August, 2025​

The S&P Global US Composite PMI was revised down to 54.6 in August 2025 from a flash estimate of 55.4, slipping from July’s seven-month high of 55.1 as services activity slowed even while manufacturing growth accelerated. The Services PMI dropped to 54.5 from 55.7, with consumer-focused firms weighed by tariffs, though financial services demand remained resilient, driving new business and employment growth. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from 49.8, marking the strongest improvement since May 2022, as production and new orders surged, inventories expanded, and firms added staff to ease capacity constraints. Despite solid growth, price pressures persisted: payroll expenses and tariffs lifted input costs, and firms passed them on to clients, keeping output charge inflation near multi-year highs. Business confidence strengthened in manufacturing but was tempered in services by concerns over inflation and uncertain federal policies.

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UN General Assembly Opens Amid Escalating Global Tensions and Market Risks​

Global tensions escalated this week ahead of the 80th United Nations General Assembly in New York, where leaders will convene amid multiple crises. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are set to dominate discussions, as the UK, Canada, Australia and others formally recognized Palestine, straining ties with Israel, while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks stronger backing against Russia. Estonia accused Moscow of repeated airspace violations, prompting NATO attention, even as Russia and Belarus carried out joint drills. In the Pacific, China warned Papua New Guinea against an exclusive defence pact with Australia, while in Europe, France grappled with mass anti-austerity protests. Oil prices edged higher on fears of supply disruptions, underscoring the market risks tied to political instability. With President Trump outlining Washington’s stance, Abbas addressing by video after being denied a U.S. visa, and Syria’s president attending for the first time since 1967, the UNGA opens against an unusually volatile geopolitical backdrop with broad implications for diplomacy, energy, and markets.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 24, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, AUD, EUR, USD

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00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.2 | Previous: 52.0
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
A modest uptick signals steady expansion across services and manufacturing, giving the yen some stability against peers.
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.4 | Previous: 53.1
Currency: JPY
Why it matters:
Services remain the engine of Japan’s growth. Continued expansion supports the recovery narrative, easing pressure on the BoJ.
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.3 | Previous: 49.7
Currency: JPY
Market lens:
Climbing back above 50 would mark renewed growth momentum in the factory sector, an encouraging sign after contraction.

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Monthly CPI Indicator
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.8%
Currency: AUD
Trading angle:
An uptick in monthly inflation strengthens the case for tighter RBA policy. AUD could gain if prices accelerate further.

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08:00 GMT
Germany – Ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 89.2 | Previous: 89.0
Currency: EUR
Market read:
Business sentiment remains subdued but stable. A surprise rise would lift euro confidence, while weakness keeps growth concerns alive.

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14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales
Forecast: 640K | Previous: 652K
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
A slight slowdown reflects affordability pressures in housing. Markets watch for consistency with other property indicators.
14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: -0.6%
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Another monthly decline underlines fragility in housing demand. Extended weakness would weigh on growth sentiment and USD.

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Wednesday opens with Japan’s PMI readings, followed by Australia’s CPI update — both key drivers for Asia-Pacific FX. Germany’s Ifo climate shapes the euro session, while U.S. new home sales provide a crucial gauge of housing momentum heading into Q4.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

Australia's Monthly CPI Indicator - 27 August, 2025​

Australia’s July CPI surprised sharply to the upside, rising 2.8% year-on-year versus 1.9% previously and above forecasts of 2.3%, the highest pace since July 2024. The jump raised questions over the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing path, but Commonwealth Bank economist Harry Ottley cautioned against overreacting, pointing to temporary drivers such as the early timing of electricity rebates and seasonal travel costs. Treasurer Jim Chalmers also emphasized that monthly inflation figures are volatile, with the RBA relying more heavily on quarterly data to set policy. The central bank has already cut rates three times this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%, and major banks — including CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac — still expect another 25bp cut in November, with NAB and Westpac projecting a further reduction in early 2026. Analysts noted that while the labor market remains resilient, easing inflationary pressures in coming quarters could pave the way for an extended rate-cutting cycle.

Market Note: UNGA & Geopolitics​

In the past two days, geopolitical flashpoints intensified across multiple regions. In Europe, NATO members accused Russia of repeated airspace violations while the EU advanced a 19th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG. France also faced mass anti-austerity strikes as the U.K., France, Canada, and Australia formally recognized Palestine, escalating tensions with Israel amid the Gaza conflict. In the Middle East, Israel struck Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, straining a fragile ceasefire. In the Pacific, Papua New Guinea delayed a defense treaty with Australia under Chinese pressure, while China ramped up military activity near Taiwan, sending 15 aircraft and a warship across the Strait’s median line. Meanwhile, Venezuela staged large-scale drills with Russian jets in defiance of U.S. naval deployments. Adding to the global picture, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the U.N. General Assembly at 9 a.m. EDT, where he is expected to use his second-term debut speech to call for narrowing asylum rights and reinforce his “America First” stance, before meeting with leaders from Ukraine, Argentina, and key Middle Eastern nations. Together, these developments underscored mounting global instability with direct implications for markets, energy security, and safe-haven demand.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 25, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, CHF, USD

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06:00 GMT
Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence
Forecast: -23.0 | Previous: -23.6
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Confidence remains deeply negative, highlighting weak household sentiment. Any improvement would ease eurozone demand worries.

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07:30 GMT
Switzerland – SNB Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: CHF
Why it matters:
Though steady rates are expected, markets will parse guidance for policy shifts. Even subtle changes in tone can spark sharp CHF volatility.

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12:30 GMT
United States – Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.7% | Previous: -2.8%
Currency: USD
Market lens:
A smaller decline signals stabilization in business investment. Markets weigh if weakness is bottoming after recent drops.

12:30 GMT
United States – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-Quarter
Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
A strong rebound underscores resilient consumption and investment. A beat would reinforce USD strength.

12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 231K
Currency: USD
Market read:
Slightly higher claims suggest a modest cooling in the labor market, but levels remain historically low.

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14:00 GMT
United States – Existing Home Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
Housing demand is stalling after last month’s rebound. Persistent softness would weigh on growth-linked sentiment.

14:00 GMT
United States – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 4.0M | Previous: 4.01M
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Flat sales highlight affordability challenges. A deeper decline would flag fragility in U.S. housing and could temper USD momentum.

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Thursday features a mix of European and U.S. data. Germany’s GfK survey gauges consumer mood, while the SNB’s policy call sets the tone for CHF. In the U.S., GDP growth, jobless claims, and durable goods orders shape the macro picture, with housing sales providing an end-of-day check on household demand.

Beyond the Headline: How Markets Digest and React to Data​

SNB Interest Rate Decision - 19 June, 2025

On June 19, 2025, the Swiss National Bank cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0%, citing easing inflationary pressures after prices dipped into negative territory in May. The central bank projected inflation at 0.2% for 2025, gradually rising to 0.7% by 2027 if rates remained unchanged. The decline was driven by falling tourism and oil prices, while Switzerland’s strong first-quarter growth was boosted by exports to the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs. The SNB also warned of weakening global growth, contrasting rising inflation expectations in the U.S. with falling pressures in Europe. This move came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady amid uncertainty over tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics — Wars, Diplomacy, and Disasters Redraw the Global Map

Between 23–24 September 2025, geopolitics was defined by conflict, diplomacy, and crises across regions. In the Middle East, Israel’s Gaza offensive intensified amid a worsening humanitarian disaster, while Western states including the UK, Canada, Australia, France, and Belgium recognized Palestinian statehood, deepening rifts with Washington. Saudi–Iran détente continued quietly as tensions flared over Gaza-bound aid flotillas. In the Asia-Pacific, Super Typhoon Ragasa devastated Taiwan and southern China, while at the UN the U.S., Japan, and South Korea jointly warned against destabilizing actions around Taiwan and the South China Sea. South Korea promoted phased dialogue with Pyongyang, and Japan braced for a leadership change after Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation. In Europe, Ukraine mounted counterattacks in Donetsk as Zelenskiy gained rhetorical backing from Trump, NATO warned Russia after airspace violations, and the EU weighed sanctions on Israeli ministers while remaining divided over Palestinian recognition. Overall, the period underscored simultaneous wars, shifting alliances, natural disasters, and widening global fault lines.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 26, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: USD, CAD

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12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Income Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
A softer pace of income growth may limit spending momentum, but still points to resilient household finances.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter reading could renew rate-hike expectations, while moderation eases pressure on policymakers.

12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Spending Month-on-Month
Forecast: — | Previous: —
Currency: USD
Market lens:
As the largest driver of U.S. GDP, strong spending confirms consumer resilience, while weakness flags slowing demand.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.9%
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
A small uptick signals sticky inflation. Traders will watch for confirmation that price pressures remain above the Fed’s 2% target.

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12:30 GMT
Canada – GDP Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CAD
Market read:
A rebound after contraction points to modest growth momentum. CAD could find support if expansion proves sustainable.

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Friday’s spotlight is firmly on U.S. inflation and spending data, with Core PCE in focus as the Fed’s key gauge. Alongside, Canada’s GDP print offers insight into whether growth is stabilizing after July’s decline.


Fade the Spike or Ride the Momentum? News Trading Strategies

29 August, 2025 — Core PCE Inflation (YoY & MoM), Fed’s Key Gauge

US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, underscoring resilient demand despite stubborn inflation and a softening labor market. Inflation-adjusted outlays increased 0.3%, boosted by durable goods purchases and income gains, even as consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, climbed 0.3% on the month and 2.9% year-on-year, its highest since February, with services costs driving the increase. Economists warned that tariff-related price pressures could soon curb household demand, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Jackson Hole, acknowledged tariffs’ visible impact on prices but kept the door open to further rate cuts.

Global Flashpoints: Rising Tensions from Europe to the Middle East

Geopolitical risks sharpened in late September 2025 as President Trump told the UN Ukraine could reclaim all its territory with NATO backing, signaling firmer U.S. support. Moldova heads into pivotal 28 September elections, underscored by the jailing of pro-Russia politician Evghenia Guțul. Denmark reported systematic drone incursions over airports, while Italy and Spain deployed warships to protect a Gaza-bound flotilla after drone strikes. Elsewhere, Guinea approved a new constitution entrenching junta power, Mali–Burkina Faso–Niger quit the ICC, dozens of states recognized Palestine, U.S. envoys cited Syria–Israel de-escalation progress, and Japan’s ruling LDP began its leadership race to replace PM Ishiba, with a decisive vote set for 4 October 2025.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 29, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: USD, JPY

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14:30 GMT
United States – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -7.0 | Previous: -1.8
Currency: USD
Market insight:
A deeper contraction in Texas factory activity highlights regional weakness. Persistent declines could weigh on broader U.S. sentiment.

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23:50 GMT
Japan – Industrial Production Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: -1.2%
Currency: JPY
Why it matters:
A rebound in output signals industrial momentum is recovering. A strong print may support JPY on growth optimism.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: JPY
Market lens:
Annual growth remains weak, but a slight improvement suggests gradual consumer recovery.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: -1.6%
Currency: JPY
Trading angle:
A sharp rebound in monthly sales points to stronger domestic demand. Sustained momentum would be supportive for the yen.

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Monday is light on releases but still impactful. The Dallas Fed index offers a regional U.S. manufacturing read, while Japan delivers key end-of-day figures on production and consumption. Together, they set the tone for USD/JPY volatility heading into Tuesday’s trade.

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

Japan's Retail Sales & Industrial Production MoM - 29 August, 2025​

In July 2025, Japan’s economy showed renewed strain as both industrial output and consumer demand weakened, according to METI data. Industrial production fell 1.2% month-on-month, a slightly smaller drop than the preliminary 1.6% estimate but still the sharpest since November 2024, reversing June’s 2.1% gain. The downturn was driven by steep declines in motor vehicles (-6.7%), production machinery (-6.3%), and general-purpose machinery (-4.5%), leaving output down 0.4% year-on-year after a strong rebound in June. On the consumer side, retail sales dropped 1.6% month-on-month, the steepest fall since August 2021, erasing June’s 0.9% rise. Annual growth slowed to just 0.3%, the weakest since February 2022, as inflation and sluggish wage gains eroded purchasing power. While spending rose on clothing, cosmetics, and food, it was outweighed by sharp declines in department stores, fuel, autos, and online sales, underscoring mounting pressure on household demand.

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Global Flashpoints: Rising Tensions from Europe to the Middle East​

In late September 2025, geopolitical flashpoints sharpened across multiple regions. At the UN, President Trump signaled firmer U.S. backing for Kyiv, declaring Ukraine could reclaim all its territory with NATO support. In Moldova, the pivotal 28 September elections loom, set against the jailing of pro-Russian politician Evghenia Guțul. Denmark reported systematic drone incursions near airports, while Japan’s ruling LDP launched its leadership contest to replace PM Ishiba, with a decisive vote scheduled for 4 October 2025. Meanwhile, Iran is reported to be rebuilding missile-production sites damaged in its June war with Israel, though it is said that key equipment such as planetary mixers for solid-fuel weapons may still be missing. Reports indicate reconstruction efforts are underway, raising concerns that Tehran could eventually restore production capacity, possibly with outside assistance.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.